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Pirate Nick

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Pirate Nick last won the day on December 15 2014

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About Pirate Nick

  • Birthday 07/07/1963

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  1. TBF I'd say uprooting your family and moving to a foreign country is a fairly big commitment.
  2. Pirate Nick

    Corona virus

    Matt Hancock Today ”We are going to take the powers to make sure that we can quarantine people if they are a risk to public health...... that’s important.”
  3. Pirate Nick

    Corona virus

    Found on Twitter from Professor Ian Donald. 1. The govt strategy on #Coronavirus is more refined than those used in other countries and potentially very effective. But it is also riskier and based on a number of assumptions. They need to be correct, and the measures they introduce need to work when they are supposed to. 2. This all assumes I'm correct in what I think the govt are doing and why. I could be wrong - and wouldn't be surprised. But it looks to me like. . . 3. A UK starting assumption is that a high number of the population will inevitably get infected whatever is done – up to 80%. As you can’t stop it, so it is best to manage it. There are limited health resources so the aim is to manage the flow of the seriously ill to these. 4. The Italian model the aims to stop infection. The UKs wants infection BUT of particular categories of people. The aim of the UK is to have as many lower risk people infected as possible. Immune people cannot infect others; the more there are the lower the risk of infection 5. That's herd immunity. Based on this idea, at the moment the govt wants people to get infected, up until hospitals begin to reach capacity. At that they want to reduce, but not stop infection rate. Ideally they balance it so the numbers entering hospital = the number leaving. 6. That balance is the big risk. All the time people are being treated, other mildly ill people are recovering and the population grows a higher percent of immune people who can’t infect. They can also return to work and keep things going normally - and go to the pubs. 7.The risk is being able to accurately manage infection flow relative to health case resources. Data on infection rates needs to be accurate, the measures they introduce need to work and at the time they want them to and to the degree they want, or the system is overwhelmed. 8. Schools: Kids generally won’t get very ill, so the govt can use them as a tool to infect others when you want to increase infection. When you need to slow infection, that tap can be turned off – at that point they close the schools. Politically risky for them to say this. 9. The same for large scale events - stop them when you want to slow infection rates; turn another tap off. This means schools etc are closed for a shorter period and disruption generally is therefore for a shorter period, AND with a growing immune population. This is sustainable 10. After a while most of the population is immune, the seriously ill have all received treatment and the country is resistant. The more vulnerable are then less at risk. This is the end state the govt is aiming for and could achieve. 11. BUT a key issue during this process is protection of those for whom the virus is fatal. It's not clear the full measures there are to protect those people. It assumes they can measure infection, that their behavioural expectations are met - people do what they think they will 12. The Italian (and others) strategy is to stop as much infection as possible - or all infection. This is appealing, but then what? The restrictions are not sustainable for months. So the will need to be relaxed. But that will lead to reemergence of infections. 13. Then rates will then start to climb again. So they will have to reintroduce the restrictions each time infection rates rise. That is not a sustainable model and takes much longer to achieve the goal of a largely immune population with low risk of infection of the vulnerable 14. As the government tries to achieve equilibrium between hospitalisations and infections, more interventions will appear. It's perhaps why there are at the moment few public information films on staying at home. They are treading a tight path, but possibly a sensible one. 15. This is probably the best strategy, but they should explain it more clearly. It relies on a lot of assumptions, so it would be good to know what they are - especially behavioural. Most encouraging, it's way too clever for #BorisJohnson to have had any role in developing.
  4. Pirate Nick

    Roman Matousek.RIP.

    Sad news. Always good to watch, if a bit mad RIP Roman.
  5. Pirate Nick

    Glasgow 2020

    Batchelor cough, just for balance you understand.
  6. Pirate Nick


    In my experience TV matches are rarely entertaining unless you’re own team is involved.
  7. Pirate Nick

    Which 3 riders would you have in team for 2020.

    Josh G Kilndt Doyle oh hang on :]
  8. Congratulations to the Robins. Lee Kilbys face said it all.
  9. Pirate Nick

    Poole 2020

    Looks like Sheffield are moving up to replace Poole. So I would imagine Poole will be accepted into the Championship.
  10. 10 is ok bearing in mind no TS in the play offs. Gating boots required at Ippo and we could do with Jack not taking 2 races to warm up. Bit concerned with THJ, looked like he has to have assistance to take his helmet off after his last race.
  11. Usual constructive reply from geoff58.
  12. I agree with your point. It must be a delayed flight with documented proof. However, that’s not the rule that is currently in place.
  13. And that is all that is wrong with speedway, of course it makes a difference. The guy was clearly delayed by over 2 hrs and wouldn’t have made the start of the meeting if he made it at all. Then all of a sudden he’s injured? It stinks that the powers that be (such as they are) have allowed this.
  14. Pirate Nick

    Poole vs Kings Lynn 12/09/19

    One of the most naturally talented riders that I have had the privilege to see.
  15. Pirate Nick

    Eastbourne v Glasgow Semi Final

    I think you'll find they are the most praised Promotion not team. Which as you say says it all when a promotion are talked about more than promotions in the top 2 leagues. They must be doing something right so where are the rest going wrong?

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