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Shrub

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Shrub last won the day on November 1 2020

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  1. All good points made. The Scandanavian study found one excess case per 100,000 following Covid, though I know other studies have found more. The 'what happened next' bit will be important, I believe the CDC are doing such a study, hopefully other studies are also being carried out. With that 16-24 age group being at virtually zero risk from Covid, added to the fact that the vaccines do not prevent infection, the albeit small risk of severe myocarditis has got to call the benefits of vaccination of the young into question. And of course myocarditis is not the only side effect....
  2. I have read the report (and I won't for a second claim to understand it all) and I suggest you're being a little bit selective in your summary. Yes there was around 2000 cases but the point being made, as I'm sure you're aware as you've read it, was the elevated risk of myocarditis after vaccination, particularly amongst young males. They may have only found between 4 to 7 excess events per 100,000 vaccinated of severe myocarditis (serious enough to hospitalise) with two doses of Pfizer and between 9 to 28 excess events with two doses of Moderna but that has to balanced against the virtually negligible effects of Covid on the 16 -24 age group. The 120 fold increase was found in 16 - 24 year old males who'd had a first dose of Pfizer followed by a second jab of Moderna. The number of excess events of myocarditis following a Covid infection was found to be one. I think it's clear that the vaccines have been of great benefit to the vulnerable and the elderly but there are clearly question marks about it's safety and benefits for the young and those at minimal risk. It's not just this study that has found similar findings. The headlines that often accompany such studies do tend to sensationalise the findings and misrepresent the general timbre of report and yes, Blu and co may be quick to jump on any such headlines but aren't there also a number on here with their heads firmly planted in the sand when it comes to questions of vaccine safety, especially in the young? The conclusions from the report: Conclusions and Relevance Results of this large cohort study indicated that both first and second doses of mRNA vaccines were associated with increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis. For individuals receiving 2 doses of the same vaccine, risk of myocarditis was highest among young males (aged 16-24 years) after the second dose. These findings are compatible with between 4 and 7 excess events in 28 days per 100 000 vaccinees after BNT162b2, and between 9 and 28 excess events per 100 000 vaccinees after mRNA-1273. This risk should be balanced against the benefits of protecting against severe COVID-19 disease. The full report, not someone's take on it, for anyone bored enough to read it https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2791253
  3. The graph has been produced by another group but uses the data on page 41 of the report. Look at the figures on that page and you find that the graph is accurate.
  4. Shrub

    Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe

    You can relate it today to Harry Potter. A half decent yarn with a million and one holes in the plot line. The biggest hole of course in the Harry Potter series is a ginger kid with two friends, Where did he get all the wood from in the middle of a desert? Was there a branch of Jewsons at Babylon and did they deliver that far out? Why did God decide to kill all the animals when they'd done nothing wrong yet all the fish get away with it? If everyone was so wicked why didn't the all powerful God just make everyone nice instead of killing them all? How does your list of possibly as little as 127 species evolve into over 8 million in just over 4000 years? Why wasn't it till the early 1900's that man was able to again build a boat that big? Noah was supposed to have lived for another 350 years after the flood and if he was such a good person you'd have thought he'd have passed his boat building skills on. If he took 50 years to build it the first laid down parts of the structure would have rotted before the completion. The Royal Navy had the same problems in the days of Nelson and boats only took 5 years or so to build then. I'm sorry, the whole tale is rollocks.
  5. Shrub

    Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe

    Must have taken most of those 40 to 50 years to build a vessel and then go off to discover Australia and the Americas to bring back marsupials. Mind you Noah was 600 years old at the time so he'd had plenty of time to develop his boat building skills - a useful trade for someone living in the Mesopotamium desert.
  6. Shrub

    Birds in decline

    Just reading up on your link and how it is part of the Hamburg Wadden Sea National Park, how could anyone think it would be a good idea to dump thousands of tons of crap in such an ecologically sensitive area? I only had a vague knowledge of the islands and certainly didn't realise how many birds rely on the area. I'm guessing that money is the motive behind dumping here but with the shallow sea meaning swift tides, surely the sediment would be washed back quickly inland?
  7. Shrub

    Birds in decline

    It is a tricky one in that we all need the ports free and open and the size of the container ships just seem to be getting bigger and bigger, which I suppose cuts down on the number of journeys made but the constant need to dredge out the shipping lanes in the relatively shallow North Sea creates another set of problems. I guess one answer would be to take it far out to sea so that any potential hazards in the sediment shouldn't wash up on the beaches in high quantities. Of course all that extra travelling costs money....
  8. Shrub

    Birds in decline

    Further to the deaths on the Northumberland coast, which along with birds also affected crustaceans and reports of dogs becoming ill after visiting the beaches, a local group of stakeholders called the North East Fishing Collective commissioned their own report into what had happened after the utterly hopeless Defra put the mass deaths down to an algal bloom. Their findings were shocking! The algal bloom theory they knew was nonsense, they always occur in summer when water temperatures are high, usually tailing off in August and it is something you can actually see in the water; none of the fisherman had spotted any, pilots who get the best views of such blooms hadn't seen any and if there was a dangerous algal bloom swimmers, paddle boarders, dog walkers should have been warned to stay away by Defra, that's their usual policy but no such warning were issued. What the group's specialist did find, via freedom of information requests to the Environment Agency and Defra were very high levels of a chemical called Pyridine in the bodies of dead crabs taken for samples. Pyridine is a hazardous chemical released as a waste product from industrial processes such as steel manufacture, oil shale processing, coal gas production, coking plants and marine antifouling applications. On the worst affected beaches at Saltburn levels of Pyridine reached over 400mg/kg - the control samples taken from the Cornish coast averaged just under 6mg/kg! 500mg/kg has been known to kill a person! The report detailed how dredging caused the re-suspension of polluted sediments in the water. The UKD Orca hopper dredger carried out what is usually a years worth of dredging in just ten days in the Tees, dumping 250,000 tonnes of spoil just two miles out to sea, re-releasing chemical, heavy metal and hydrocarbon pollutants attached to the sediment. It apparently takes a few months for it to be broken down in water by bacteria and CO2, so potentially a problem for a while as yet. Commercial crab and lobster fisherman in the area are reporting (mid Feb) catches are 80 to 95% down. This will also have a knock on effect on the local cod population, which has always been healthy, as crabs and shellfish are the main part of their diet in the North East. What's most concerning though is the Pyridine figures were produced by the Environment Agency for Defra yet they did absolutely bugger all about them. It is a known hazardous chemical which produces a multitude of symptoms when there has been a higher than 'normal' exposure. To me it's further evidence that the body responsible for our seas, farming and food is not fit for purpose and God help us now we've taken back control from Brussels, who were also pretty sh!t at managing them but actually look competent compared to what we have now.
  9. Shrub

    European Union - In Or Out?

    I think we've been through this one before - you run into serious problems if you ban something when there's not an alternative product to use. The whole bee thing in this instance is a bit bogus. Bees are only interested in flowering plants, sugar beet is harvested before flowering. To try and beat the Yellows Virus over the top foliar insecticide sprays are being used now that neonicotinoids are banned, as many as four applications per year, far worse for the environment. A better solution would be to try and cut the UK's sugar consumption!
  10. Shrub

    Ukraine

    So's Jaywick but you wouldn't be able to tell...
  11. Shrub

    Birds in decline

    I'm guessing that the storms still battering us here on the Essex coast are also hitting the German coast? Another 24 hours of storms still to go... This afternoon I gave my friend, who I go fishing with, a hand to check his boat over for any storm damage, check the bilges etc. It's moored in the sheltered Mersea backwaters and the journey of about 500 yards from the jetty to the boat in his dory is usually about as tough as a ride on the boating lake in the local park. Today though the wind was pushing waves up over side into the dory. making it an unpleasant, bouncy ride and the wind swept spray really stung your eyes. 20 minutes tops we had to cope with that in conditions that are a fraction of those properly out at sea. Who'd be a bird in this...
  12. Shrub

    A voice of reason?

    It's been law here since 2008 that you're meant to apply for planning permission if you want to install a non permeable driveway or patio over 5 sq.m in area but it doesn't seem to be enforced. Standard block paving, the stuff most people go for is considered permeable due to the tiny kiln dried sand filled joints between the blocks and the blocks themselves do absorb some water. Of course this is nonsense, most water flows straight over the top as there's always a fall on the driveway; if too much water drained through to the sharp sand bed they're laid on it would be washed away over time.
  13. Shrub

    A voice of reason?

    All that is true but I think one of the biggest factors in London has been the massive increase in the amount of gardens paved over. The equivalent of over 15 square miles of gardens have become car parks or hard standing in the last ten years alone, putting even more water into an already overtaxed system. An inch of rain is nearly 17,400,000 gallons of water per square mile, multiply that by fifteen makes an extra 260,000,000 gallons of water to contend with, or to use the 'standard' measure for large volumes of water about 400 Olympic swimming pools. The problem is further exacerbated by the loss of plants as a result of all the paving; plants absorb and store more water than bare soil alone. Another consequence of the extra paving is that it reflects heat more than open soil or grass does, increasing temperature readings. Average London city summer temperatures are now 5C warmer than the closest rural areas.
  14. But if you talk numbers of people it's got to be in the context of their density! I also did agree with your point saying that population density is undoubtedly a factor in transmission.
  15. Whilst population density undoubtedly influences viral transmission, comparing countries entire land masses isn't helpful. Take away Sweden's forests, mountains and lakes - 9% of it's land area is water- makes your stat pretty meaningless. 88% of Sweden's population live in urban areas, compared to 84% here. Stockholm, which has over a fifth of the total population, has a population density of 5.2k per sq km compared to London's 5.7k. Whilst the density is lower in Sweden compared to here, it's not too dissimilar to ours and certainly not by over a factor of four as you state.
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