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Shrub

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Shrub last won the day on November 1 2020

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  1. A great post and precisely the sort of questions that should have been properly, thoroughly discussed and resolved after the first failed lockdown. Personally I didn't agree with the first one but it happened and it achieved little apart from finding out that plenty of people liked working from home but caused the colossal collateral damage we all know about. Johnson even said in July that he didn't envisage using one again, it was the 'nuclear option', recognising the enormous damage it had caused. If the government recognised this then that was the time alternatives should have been researched, particularly because it was around this time the seasonal nature of the virus was being realised and the likelihood that it would return in the autumn. None of your questions have an easy or simple answer that can be answered in a few lines; multiple agencies would need to work together to come up with workable solutions. There was time in the summer to attempt this. Any solution could and probably would be deemed as harsh or unfair on some but surely would be better than using a blunt object that effects and restricts everyone. That nothing was done in summer and that the Great Barrington Declaration was dismissed without debate with a few glib words leading to the government falling back on what they had already admitted was hugely damaging was a disgrace. But we are where we are now and hopefully vaccines and the ending of the virus season will see the end of lockdowns. It's all academic saying what should have happened, what's happened can't be changed but we can just hope that lessons are learnt - though with this lot in charge I won't hold my breath. A plan should be being worked on right now for future use, just in case. I fully realise I haven't directly answered any of your questions and will probably be criticised for not doing so. I don't consider myself qualified to give a thorough answer, I'll leave that to the people who fully understand the subject and all the potential pitfalls. At least now there is some real life evidence from those areas which didn't pursue lockdown to consider too. But it got to be done. Saying it's impossible or too hard and instead relying on failed and damaging lockdowns again is just not good enough.
  2. Thanks for the full and thorough reply! But I have to say what a load of cobblers! You have conveniently forgotten / ignored the points regarding Florida's more urbanised population, the older demographic, the higher levels of obesity and the higher instances of comorbidities. Roughly an eighth of the state is the Everglades, where only around 500 people live so the population is reasonably dense.The models said the virus would cut a huge swathe through the state if no lockdown was put in place but it didn't. I agree it is hard to compare any area to another but that wasn't my point - I said why isn't the situation being fully debated? Florida has shown that it is possible to fight the virus without resorting to lockdowns. Are you admitting, by the way that it is seasonal when mentioning Florida's warmer weather? You admit and regret the colossal financial implications of the lockdown - not your problem though, the kids will have to pay it but make no mention of the thousands of deaths that are occurring and will continue to occur due to lockdown. Just collateral damage? The alternative could have been protecting the vulnerable and allowing the rest to keep the country going, as has been discussed on here numerous times but you've always dismissed as impossible to do. Yet Florida did it. It never would have been do nothing as you keep saying the anti-lockdowners wanted. In lockdown world it has resulted in the decimation of businesses, many already don't have workers because they're being paid to stay home and many don't have anyone to trade with because they're deemed non essential and are shut, many will never open again. I very much doubt, though can never be proved , that the country would have collapsed in your domesday scenario of no lockdown . But it did happen in reality with lockdown! Hopefully the vaccines will get us out of the mess this incompetent government and lockdowns have got us into, along with the natural decline of a seasonal virus. I do find it surprising you still sing the government's praises despite the high death rate and their destruction of the economy - cheering bad news?! I guess being a lifelong Newcastle fan you naturally have low expectations and are easily pleased! I think we can safely say we will never agree on this subject!
  3. Shrub

    Kelly Moran - 'A Hell of a Life'

    Back in either 1988 or 89 I was at the Czech Golden Helmet at Pardubice where we stayed at the Grande Hotel. The night before the main meeting we were all in the bar (beer was the equivalent of 2p per pint, a Coca Cola was 4p) when in walked Kelly Moran, he'd flown in late after riding for Belle Vue(?) earlier. He proceeded to catch up with everyone else and by 2am was totally pissed, ignoring all attempts to get him to go to bed. I guess around 3am he called it a night - around 12 hours before the meeting - and promptly fell over in the lift and damaged a hand which swelled up like a balloon. Next day we were on the bus ready to go to the meeting but no Kelly, who was getting a lift with us. The tour organiser eventually got him up and out and he was clearly hungover. The parade for the meeting back then involved all the riders walking a lap of the track which they did, waving at the noisy crowd but trudging along on his own about 20 yards behind the rest came Kelly, wearing still dirty leathers. He ran two very distant lasts and that was his meeting done. The meeting organisers must have felt extremely angry and let down. As has been said, a super talented rider who didn't achieve anywhere near what he could have.
  4. And no comment from you on the numerous points I made. If I remember rightly the 97% came if the R rose to 4, a figure it has never been close to. Why did they include it in the first place? To keep you happy I have just amended the post to say worse case scenario. I have now answered and addressed your questions. Now answer mine.
  5. Thank you for pointing that out. I made the mistake of taking the UK's as per square km, not miles. I found Florida's latest to be 397.2 by the way. I will amend the post accordingly. Doesn't though, I feel detract from the overall point I was making.
  6. I will go back to the point that no mention was made of immunity being achieved through recovering from the virus or from T cell immunity, it inferred it was only achieved by vaccination. That is not true. You know as well as I do that the facts can and have been interpreted in many ways, the programme, which I found interesting, offered only one interpretation and made no mention of other credible views. A good programme, but not balanced. I've never made a claim to being a lockdown expert but have always said that the lockdown measures will kill far more than the virus will and almost daily evidence comes forward that backs that view. Tomorrow the chancellor will supposedly 'level with us' about the economic cost of the lockdown, around £280 billion so far, at some point it has to be paid for and it will be the young who will have to foot the bill, not the likes of you. Despite being at virtually zero risk the young have had their education ruined, have had their social lives taken from them and 60% of all job losses due to the lockdown have been amongst the under 25's. You keep stating nearly all governments have used lockdown as their go to tool but fail to add it's been a disaster virtually everywhere, especially here. Why isn't the situation in Florida more openly discussed? Back in September their governor called in a team of experts to asses the effectiveness of lockdown measures. They concluded that they were not working. The measures were then all nullified; no masks, schools, businesses and hospitality all open. Instead resources were targeted at the vulnerable. Imperial's modelling for the US said that in a state with a population the size of Florida there would be 143,000 deaths within months if no lockdown was in place. A year on and deaths stand at 30,000. It is more urban than here. The population is older, has more health issues and far greater levels of obesity. They have also had the Kent variant since December. The only thing in it's favour is the warmer climate. It should have been carnage according to all the lockdown enthusiasts yet it wasn't. Their economy shrank by 2.4% in 2020 compared to the 10% here. It's just one state but it shows that lockdowns don't have to be the first port of call. A bit late in the day now but this type of approach should have been researched thoroughly and discussed like adults. I'm still waiting by the way for you to point out the posts you say I've made cheering bad news.
  7. You mean the documentary that was presented by the twin brothers who are doctors? If so it said near the end of the programme in the worst case scenario we had to reach 97% herd immunity to be safe and herd immunity was achieved through vaccines with no mention of achieving immunity by contracting and recovering from Covid or of T cell immunity. It did contain lots of interesting facts but only one interpretation of them.
  8. I believe this is what The Third Man was referring to, Tsunami https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9283831/Matt-Hancocks-pub-landlord-neighbour-faces-probe-UKs-medical-regulator.html
  9. Shrub

    European Union - In Or Out?

    Pretty much spot on. In nearly every episode of that programme a fisherman would say something along the lines of 'Back in the day we used to be able to haul tons off this area, we could fill the boat within a couple of hours, not like that now' and fishermen everywhere will blame quotas, climate change, poor spawning years, the EU, bad weather, sea anglers, fish migration patterns, the French, the Spaniards, the Dutch and every other conceivable excuse except looking to their own actions. There's no denying that the rules governing them were crap and made their dangerous job more difficult but they didn't force them to target spawning fish, use techniques that capture whole shoals instead of just parts of them, hoover up 1000's of tonnes of sand eels, the main food source for numerous fish and sea bird species and sell them for fertiliser, continue to use illegal gill nets, continue to beam trawl when they know how much damage it does to the sea bed and to always push for maximum commercial yields of certain species rather than sustainable numbers. When the EU actually did do something right like increase the minimum landing size for bass the fishermen, instead of increasing their net mesh sizes to allow the smaller fish a chance to escape carried on using their old nets , landed fewer fish and chucked more undersized back dead. The programme also highlighted something that's common around all fishing communities - most - not all - of the families involved have been fishing for generations and feel like they own the seas and everyone else on the water should make way for them and it's their right to take as much as they want. If fishing is to have any future the fishermen sooner or later are going to have to realise they'll have to work with the EU to manage stocks. Unfortunately for them the fish don't recognise the arbitrary boundaries drawn on the seas and roam widely, There's not 'British fish' and 'EU fish'. There's also little point the UK catching fish in a sustainable way if the EU allows bigger catches, they have to move together. I can't see it happening though, they're far too short sighted. There'll always be a market for fish so there are opportunities for innovative fishermen who look at the long term picture. And they need to persuade consumers that there's more in the sea than just cod, haddock, mackerel and plaice.
  10. Shrub

    Recognising Bird Song

    And they have the devil's eyes!
  11. Shrub

    Recognising Bird Song

    Apparently for the first time in 600 years storks bred in the UK last year, somewhere in Sussex if I remember rightly. Would be good to see them more nationwide here. Going back to gannets, their only 'enemy' in the bird world are Great Skuas, a really aggressive bird about the size of a herring gull that is willing to take on a gannet and nick it's food. Will also drown puffins and gulls. Anyway when I was up in Shetland we went up to Hermaness in the very North of the islands on an immensely windy day to try and see the puffin colonies there. It involved a three mile walk across moorland to the cliff tops, on the moors though the skuas had just started nesting and were not at all pleased with our presence, constantly dive bombing us and making a hell of a row if we were near their nests. Don't think they would actually attack you but they came very, very close. Never saw the puffins, it was another couple of miles along the 500ft clifftops and we simply couldn't stand up at at the edge due to the wind, the gusts knocked you sideways, so we chickened out. We did see them on the water though whilst fishing.
  12. Shrub

    Recognising Bird Song

    Echo what Steve said, some great images on her but this one I really like. One of the big pluses of offshore fishing is getting the chance to see gannets and other sea birds in action. When you see them diving on TV it's never quite natural as they're after fish thrown in by the camera crew - you see them picking up already dead mackerel - in reality the dives are usually much deeper, smaller gulls are picking up any thing close to the surface and the gannets can take ages to come back up. The speed is awesome! and such agility for a large bird
  13. Shrub

    Recognising Bird Song

    Come to tropical Mersea when you're allowed, they're always by the strood at low tide!
  14. Shrub

    Recognising Bird Song

    Take the Goldeneyes out of the picture and you'll have one of my standard efforts!
  15. Shrub

    Recognising Bird Song

    Living on an island as I do means we're rather spoilt for waders, sea birds and wildfowl yet have never seen a smew and I've only ever seen great Northern Divers out at sea a couple of times. What I do witness here often in winter and find mesmerising is the murmurations of 1000's of knots at dusk. This morning as I drove off the island there was a large flock of lapwings on the move across the mudflats, a few curlew probing the mud, plenty of oystercatchers and a lone Shelduck.
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