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Shrub

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Shrub last won the day on November 1 2020

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  1. Shrub

    A voice of reason?

    Whilst not denying that sea levels are on the rise, at present we are at the peak of a cycle of big spring tides. Coupling that with the heavy rain of the last couple of days would always shut the barrier. Not so much a closure due to climate change, more due to a natural occurrence. The barrier was designed with an allowance of 8mm per year sea level rise up to 2030; that was the predicted sea level rise per year back in the 1970's. The actual rise since then has been less than half that, averaging 3.6mm per year between 1990 and 2018. So potentially the barrier has a longer serviceable working life than was originally expected. However if you run that sea level rise per year back over a longer period of time it's been 1.43mm per year between 1911 and 2018..... Sea level rise is undeniably occurring and will affect millions of people in the years to come but in my opinion, because so often scientists have massively over-predicted these rises, seemingly always going for absolute worse case scenario rather than the most likely outcome, many now simply ignore the problem believing that the scientists are constantly crying wolf. These domesday reports may make great headlines but in reality they help no one. The part of the Essex coast where I live is very low lying and just to the South across the Blackwater estuary is the Dengie peninsula, which is even even lower lying, much of the land here is reclaimed marshland and is in places below sea level. This whole coastline was devastated in the '53 floods and is clearly at high risk from rising seas in the future, yet the Government are trying to push through the building of a new nuclear power station (Bradwell) in this area, on a site that is lower than the decommissioned Bradwell A. It's no wonder so many are sceptical when on one hand the Government are saying we must wake up and act on climate change whilst on the other hand they're trying to build a nuclear reactor on such a risky, unsuitable site. But just the sort of thing you'd expect the bunch of f**kwits in charge to do...
  2. .....According to an anonymous ICU doctor who contacted the Daily Mail in August. According to the BMJ report titled 'How is vaccination affecting hospital admissions and deaths' dated September 20th 2021 it reports that SAGE, in their meeting of 9th September said 'SAGE noted that most patients admitted to hospital with Covid after June 16th 2021 were fully vaccinated'. The report clearly concludes that vaccination greatly reduces the chances of hospitalisation and death but also makes clear that Tsunami's post is nonsense. https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2306
  3. Shrub

    European Union - In Or Out?

    Reason you've not so many bass down there is due to the illegal netting by some of your commercial fishermen. When bass stocks collapsed in 2013 and strict measures were brought in to help improve stocks, recorded UK landings outside the West Country went down by 78%, yet went up 43% in the West Country. It's local commercials targeting the the large breeding stock bass that are shoaling up now in readiness to head off to spawn that are doing most of the damage, aided and abetted by the local Inshore Fisheries and Conservation Authorities who turn a blind eye to their activities, despite being presented with evidence of illegal fishing Anyway, I spent a week fishing down in Plymouth a couple of weeks ago and we spent a day fishing for bass and I caught 17, best one going 8lb 4oz. (all returned) So you can catch them if you know what you're doing!
  4. Shrub

    Name your favourite five riders.

    John Louis, Tony Davey, Mike Lanham, Ted Howgego and Moggo
  5. Shrub

    Fly Fishing

    The US fisheries policy is often held up over here as a prime example of how to look after fish stocks properly. As someone who lives there Chunky, do American fishermen think they have managed them well or are we getting a rose tinted view? In sea angling circles the way striped bass are looked after in particular is shown as the ultimate success story, particularly when you compare it to the shambolic way bass have been managed here. I remember you saying that you live 600 odd miles from the sea so appreciate you may not have knowledge of the way they control their sea stocks but in general, especially considering the way you say some treat the ancient, almost prehistoric native species there, are they sensibly managed?
  6. Shrub

    Fly Fishing

    Hmmm.... To begin I do believe that the seas are changing and getting warmer. Locally in my lifetime species like bass are now year round resident yet when I was a kid they were just a summer / autumn fish. Cod have all but disappeared here, sea temperature may have played some small part but the over riding reason they have gone is over fishing. Nature though abhors a vacuum so other fish have moved in so in winter we now catch thornback rays, more whiting, dogfish, some bass and dabs instead of cod. I haven't read the actual report so can only go off the Mail's interpretation of it. They appear to make the common mistake of quoting the seas are warming by 0.8C per decade when this is surface temperature and not deep sea temperature, which is thought to be increasing on average by 0.02C per decade - though no one it seems is sure on this due to the difficult nature of getting enough deep sea temperature readings to draw accurate conclusions. Very few fish swim on the surface for long. Herring, the fish in question in this article generally follow the food - mostly plankton and other minute sea creatures so they could be anywhere between a couple of feet below the surface down to 300+ feet down, which suggests they are readily able to cope with a wide range of temperature, as does the fact they also can swim in arctic waters and the much more temperate Southern North Sea. The biggest factor in my opinion leading to smaller herring would be overfishing. The herring are fished all year round and spawning fish are also targeted, despite it being known that there are four distinct populations which all spawn at different but known times. It's not rocket science to leave the spawning fish alone so healthy populations can be maintained, however we are talking about the shortsighted, sheer and utter stupidity of the world of commercial fisheries. North Sea stocks collapsed in the 70's and are only recovering now, the two main Alaskan fisheries collapsed in the 90's and have not returned. We have the Canadians targeting spawning fish specifically for their roe. We even had in the 70's the mass killing of Orcas because they were blamed for the collapse in stocks, even though it was known the whales accounted for about 1% of the fish whilst fishing was responsible for over 10% of stocks. Constantly taking spawning (ie bigger) fishing will of course lead to a reduction in size. Then there is toxic run offs to which the young fry in estuaries are susceptible to, coastal destruction of their spawning grounds. the fact that virtually everything wants to eat them.. That is not to say that warming seas aren't having an effect; they no doubt are. But many factors are at play here, to which overfishing has got to be number one and indeed the Mails article does say in the text that there are other contributing factors. But to run with a headline of 'Rising sea temperatures ARE shrinking our fish' is clearly misleading and this type of sensationalist headline does no one any favours. Personally, I find it's the cold that shrinks things...
  7. Shrub

    Fly Fishing

    Would go along with this, Reuben-Heaton are the brand to go for, they make I believe most of the scales used in competitions. Much prefer the dial scale ones, have tried the digital ones but didn't last long, saltwater and batteries are never a good mix though won't be so much of a problem for freshwater use I guess. Blu's Angling Direct link showed out of stock but Veals have them available for £22.
  8. Shrub

    Fly Fishing

    Do you want one that's accurate or one that tells you what you want to hear!?
  9. Shrub

    The Olympic Games

    The foiling yachts are daft but they're bloody fast! Certainly a million miles away from 'traditional' sailing and hard to see how you can call both sailing but a hell of a spectacle to watch! With around 140,000 man hours to design, develop and build one boat that alone costs around $10 million, which are able to travel at 50+ knots under control and not just down wind in a straight line, with performance un-imagined even five years ago illustrates falcace's point about over resourcing at the very top of a sport rather well.
  10. Shrub

    The Olympic Games

    Fully agree. Your description of your local running club also perfectly describes our local sailing club - and I guess thousands of sporting clubs up and down the country. Grassroots sports must be doing something right in providing the initial talents that have gone on to great success but that's in spite of not because of grass root funding. The credit should go to the efforts of countless club member volunteers giving freely their time and expertise.
  11. Shrub

    The Olympic Games

    I agree with pretty much all you say but you're being a little harsh on sailing. I'm no sailor and I've long been of the opinion that boats are for fishing from and had engines put in them 150+ years ago so why bother with a sail, however my other half and son are very keen competitive sailors and can be found most weekends towing a boat somewhere around the country, for nationally there is a thriving grass root level of competition, coaching and training. Here on Mersea Island in North Essex we've just finished the junior sailing regatta week, with 148 local 8 -18 year olds taking part; the numbers keep creeping up year on year thanks in no small part to the success of Saskia Clark at Rio and London (the former sailing partner of Hannah Mills) who was born and bred here and learnt to sail at the local club. Sailing certainly has an image problem, Olympics aside the most people ever see of it is the multi-million pound space age boats of the America's Cup or news footage from Cowes week giving the impression that is a rich mans sport, the reality at club level, apart from the odd inevitable red trousered bigoted bore, is a mix of people from all walks of life and backgrounds. Starter boats and equipment can be picked up relatively cheaply and most clubs will hire out all the gear for those who want to have a go before committing to buying - £20 at our local club to hire everything needed to put you on the water for an hour. The local club also boasts the cheapest bar on the island, so your assertion that a few more jugs of Pimms being bought here is probably true!
  12. Shrub

    European Union - In Or Out?

    This is not true. There are reasonable stocks of cod in the North Sea north of the Humber and still plentiful in Scottish waters, especially around Shetland. Norway and Iceland have always had abundant stocks and have independently managed their stocks far better than the UK / EU. The Southern North Sea has seen a surface temperature increase of between 0.2 and 0.5C per decade since the 70's but the commonly eaten fish are bottom dwellers where the temperature is more stable, the temperature appears to have risen by around 0.02C per decade but the scientists struggle to get enough data to be able to confirm this, due to the difficult nature of taking readings in deep water. Due to melting ice in the Arctic which sea currents channel through Norwegian waters down towards Shetland, Orkney and Northern Scotland, the sea temperatures in those regions are now actually colder than they were in the 1950's. Chronic overfishing is the undoubted cause of the collapse in Cod stocks in the Southern North Sea and the Channel, for which all governments and the EU should be blamed, along with the short sighted commercial fisherman of all countries. I am not denying that the seas aren't warming, the 0.02C increase is significant, not so much so on the actual fish but more on species lower down the food chain. There's plenty of issues you can use to beat up the Brexit supporting Fishermen and government without resorting to writing nonsense.
  13. Not quite, there were more deaths than births in 1976 and 1977. According to the ONS figures births were higher than deaths in every single year of WW1. Deaths were higher than births in 1941, the only year that happened in WW2
  14. Shrub

    Recognising Bird Song

    I was thinking either I haven't been very observant or they are very late this year (or both). It has been cold. Or as returning migrants their Brexit paperwork was incorrect and they weren't being let in. I've always assumed the swallows fly at whatever height the most insects are flying, so it does makes sense that when it's about to rain the bugs go looking for cover and would be nearer the ground. Will make sure in future a raincoat is close to hand when they're flying below head height!
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