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False dawn

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False dawn last won the day on September 2 2017

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About False dawn

  • Birthday March 8

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  1. False dawn

    Unfair advantage - starting gates

    I have wondered if this was a possible solution. Although it could cause damage to the tyres and lead to riders wanting a new rear tyre per race.
  2. Simply question: Is it possible to make all 4 starting gates roughly equivalent? Those of you who know me well know that I like to gather and analyse meeting statistics. Actually, I'm a bit of a nerd, but you've been too polite to say so thus far. But stats are just data. Their interpretation is information and information that can be useful. Take the last 4 years GPs at Krsko for example. Many of you will have noticed that gate 4 on Saturday night was a stinker. It produced 1 race winner (Magic in heat 19) and, in my opinion, more significantly, yielded the fewest points. Now you could propose quite credible reasons for this based on the run to the first corner and the shape of the track. And if we look at last year's stats you will find some support for this conclusion (0 wins and an even lower number of points). But go back to 2016 and the theory breaks down. Gate 4 was the 2nd best gate. Now all these numbers are well and good. I think the sample is significant enough to draw some conclusions. Certainly riders are generally pretty sure which gate to chose in the semis and the final based on the first 20 heats. My question is more related to track preparation. Is the fact that gate 4 is on the racing line significant? Is there more (or less) loose material out there? Does the rain drain down to the inside? I don't know, but surely the track curator has some ideas. Would you want to prepare a track where riders had very little chance of scoring points from one or more gates? Surely there are ways to even out the surface? Men with rakes around the start, working between every race (not an original idea btw)? A more scientific measure of the surface such as Kelvin's dirtometer (!!!). Whatever method is used, please remove some of these disparities. All too often the last third of a meeting is spoiled, ruined dare I say, due to the unfair advantage offered by a given gate or two.
  3. This is just another case of referees applying the rules in an inconsistent fashion. Like many on here. I've seen lots of new rules introduced over the years. Some of these have been controversial, even downright unpopular. But at the end of the day it isn't the rules that cause the problems it's the referees application of them. Consistency is the watch word. What happened last night was job's worth and we all know it. There have been countless examples of riders "not being read to race" after the clock ticks to zero. Many examples could be seen last night. Of course you have to define what being "ready to race" means. Taking last night as an example, the starting marshal seemed to be determined to have the riders within a gnat's whatsis of his idea of where the riders should be. So where he was calling riders forward after the clock had gone to zero, were all those riders subject to exclusion. Of course not. We'd have had more exclusions than not. Forget that heat 16 last night was the most mouth watering line up at that point in the championship you could imagine, every race counts in the GP series. A bloody silly exclusion of any rider in any race is significant, by definition. Bartosz Zmarzlik beats Tai Woffinden by 1 point to win the World Championship on 6th October and guess what everyone will be talking about?
  4. Craig Cook will be thinking this is just like Manchester!
  5. That last shot looked like the nice dry shale is now a pudding and having to be dragged off. This could be a bit of a lottery
  6. False dawn

    Predictaheat

    Are you good at predicting races? Are you sure? Are you any better than anyone else? This is a measurable skill. It is quantifiable. And you can have a whole bunch of fun along the way. Believe me, I know…… I invented this little game and having tested it for a while I thought there might be a few folks out there that would get the same enjoyment from it as I have. For what it’s worth, I offer this to all my speedway friends. Predictaheat A game of skill for one or more players. The short version of the rules: 1. The outcome of a speedway race is predicted. 2. The result of the race is compared with the prediction. 3. Each race earns a score from 0 to 8, 0 being the best. 4. Points are totalled for a meeting. The player with the lowest score wins. Easy. Slightly longer version: 1. Predict all four riders in the order you think they will finish e.g. RWBY 2. Let’s say the result is WBRY. 3. To calculate the heat score, you compare each rider’s finishing position with his predicted position. So red came 3rd but was predicted 1st. You got him 2 places out of position thus scoring you 2 points. White scores 1, blue scores you 1 and yellow was right, so scoring you a zero. Add them all up and your heat score is 4. [that is much harder to explain than to actually calculate]. Obviously if you get all four riders correct you score a 0 (not rare but harder than you’d think). 4. As a guide, over say 15 heats, an average of around 3 points per heat is not bad. This can be a great game to play against others but be careful, it can get very competitive. Playing on your own can be fun just to see how low a score you can get. Supplementary regulations: 5. All predictions must be made prior to tapes up. 6. Exclusions, riders going off 15m, engine failures etc. are just bad luck. You’re not allowed to make a new prediction. The exception to this rule is if the line up in a rerun is different for any reason e.g. a reserve replacement after a tape exclusion or for a rider eligible to take part who cannot do so due to injury. In these circumstances a new prediction is permitted 7. Where multiple riders fail to finish a race e.g. 2 engine failures, the first one to stop is deemed to have come last, the second one to stop is deemed to have come 3rd etc. If you can’t work out the finishing order this way, you’ll have to agree a result amongst the competitors. 8. To settle a draw for the overall meeting competition you might like to have a side bet on the overall meeting result e.g. 50-40 for a league meeting. Sound simple? Well it is. But you might find it more challenging to achieve a good score than you first think. Some fun facts: There are 24 possible predictions/outcomes for a 4 man race. Normal races scores are 0,2,4,6 and 8. Odd scores are only possible if there is a dead heat. If you predicted at random, over a large number of heats, mathematically you would expect an overall average of 5 points per heat. An average of 3 points per heats, at team meetings, is a good guide. At individual meetings (GPs etc.) good luck. An average over 4 is not off the wall. Any meeting for which you get under 2.5 points a heat is cheating! The nasty 5-1: You predict a 5-1 say RBWY and the result is BRYW. Still a 5-1 but you score a 4. The classic 8: You predict RBWY and the result is YWBR. There are 2 other ways of scoring 8. The hurtful 6: Your predicted winner has an engine failure. That’s a minimum of a 6. It could be an 8 depending on the other riders. The accidental 0. Doesn’t exist. A perfect score is always down to skill eh? Three consecutive 0’s. The drinks are on you. You might think this is a bit of an exaggeration but this is the Predictaheat “hole in one”. Three consecutive 8’s. This might not be the game for you. To be honest I have “achieved” 2 8's and a 6 in 3 races on occasion but the perfect 24 has alluded me. Because this is a scoring game, you can collect lots of data and generate your own statistics, calculated match averages, record low scores, record high scores, even National competitions if you can trust one another. I leave it your imagination. Good luck people and let me know what you think. Simple scorechart enclosed, although you can write your predictions on your programme, a bit of paper or the back of a fag packet. Predictaheat Scorechart.pdf
  7. False dawn

    Belle Vue v King's Lynn 06/08/18

    Getting a warning and then an "exclusion" for moving a second time is surely equivalent to a tape touching offence? 15m is an option in both cases and if the rider had only appeared twice, a third outing was still required.
  8. Let us celebrate the beginning of something bigger than petty squabbling. When all else has gone, history will show that Great Britain raced against Australia in a Test match today. This is no small thing and if GB weren't good enough to take home the honours, then bloody well improve. Oz take the bragging rights today and if that hurts (it should) come back fighting all the harder. Feel the desire, because sure as hell the Aussies ain't going to make it easy. And why should they? We have the makings of an international side, but there is a long way to go. There's the need, now want the right outcome. Well done Glasgow. You did a good thing, even if the wrong team won (just kidding!).
  9. I don't see the word (or concept) "friendly" ever mentioned except by you to support your argument. You won't see Max or Craig or anyone else in the pits on Saturday treating this as a friendly. If you've degraded this meeting to that level in your mind, you've missed the point.
  10. The one person who has a half way credible reason to miss this meeting is Jason Doyle. Will he be missing? Not on your Kelly. You're wrong, with respect. You can ask if this is right or wrong. And I'll counter you at every turn.
  11. Oo eck. The World's about to end. False dawn and Steve Shovlar agreeing! What next? We might both be right at the same time.
  12. So you're asked if you'd "like to" represent your nation, the World Champion will be there, even bloody Tai is riding for us (God Bless Him) and you pull not even with a sicky but to have a rest? Not on in my view. I was considering a near 12 hour round trip drive to see this very special meeting. It makes you think twice. I'll say more.... This is a very special meeting, designed, in part, to capture the public's imagination. Those of us who remember test matches of old know precisely what I mean. For the newer fans, don't you want to beat those Aussies? I for one, don't want to be playing the "What if" card if we lose. We don't want to leave anything out there do we? This is historic.
  13. I kind of agree with you but the main reason for this shake up was to give someone other than Poland a chance to win. If we go for any 3 riders and any 2 from 3 in each race, Poland will win, sorry to say. I know we all got excited because GB did so well. But take your GB hat off and that was a bloody exciting two days of World championship speedway with some riders pushing as hard as they do on the individual GP front. For me, deciding a championship at the World level on the basis of one race is wrong, particularly over two days. The best team should be the one to get the most points (4 3 2 0). It there is a tie, forget the count back, then you can have a race off. And then I might revert to the 3210 format. A 3 all means you go again. The heat winner in the first 3 all getting the pick of the gates in the second run off and so on. 2nd and 3rd should never be the winner. That doesn't make sense to anyone, especially the casual fan.
  14. False dawn

    RIP Ivan Mauger OBE

    Ivan Mauger. Surely one of the first, maybe really the first rider to take a professional approach to racing. He certainly raised the bar for the rest of the speedway world. Many others modelled themselves on him and achieved great things as a result. Ivan was not just a good rider. The record book proves that. He left those of us who saw him race in no doubt of his greatness. I did have the pleasure of meeting him at the Sheffield press and practice day about 15 years ago and I was struck by his quiet unassuming character. RIP Ivan. Thanks for the memories.
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