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MrMungo

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Posts posted by MrMungo

  1. Posted

    So, a slow day at work....:

    Belle Vue

    I think the side has a much better look to it than last year, even if not quite so strong in the big heats. Whilst I would prefer a Brit to be named @ 7, I think Etheridge is a decent capture and I expect he will surprise a fair few people, and should take some of the pressure away from Bewley. Bewley is the key man; if he can kick on, they are strong. If not, it does look like they have a long tail away from home on some tracks. Bewley struggled on some away tracks, Etheridge going to many places for the first time, Tungate not always being a great traveller, Drozdz will likely find some tracks a challenge, etc. Will also be interesting to see how Cook deals with being in the GPs too. The side should be terrific at home, but question marks over the away form.

    Prediction: Play-Offs + a change mid-season to increase away potency.

    Key Man: Dan Bewley

    King's Lynn

    Despite the Whingeathon on the KL thread, I think the side looks okay. I don't think Iversen will be quite the force as he has been, but if Lambert gets his head down and stops whinging they have a top 2 as strong as any - on their day, at least! Kerr/Rose/Proctor will also ensure there's plenty of strength at reserve allowing Andersen time to settle. It'll be most interesting to see how Andersen settles in, reports I have heard from Denmark suggest he is even more forceful than Nicki used to be - can't wait to see what Trees will make of him! For me, it's Jørgensen who will make or break their play-off aspirations. They need him to make the next step up to make the third heat leader position his, and if he can do that, they may sneak into the Top 4, if not, I reckon about 6th is likely.

    Prediction: 6th

    Key Man: Thomas Jørgensen

    Leicester

    It's great to see Leicester put together an attractive side, but they do often appear to be one of those clubs who struggle to convert good sides into points.

    Not entirely sure what to expect. They have the sort of side that I think could go to Poole and nearly pull off a shock win, but at the same time go to Somerset a few nights later and struggle to get over 30. May well be part of their charm. Vaculik is a great addition to the league, but @ 1, there's a fair bit of pressure on him to hit the ground running. If he performs well, and if KP takes to British Speedway, they look very strong and will probably be Poole's biggest challenges. If they struggle for whatever reason, they could struggle to make the play-offs.

    Prediction: Scrape into the play-offs.

    Key Man: Martin Vaculik

    Poole

    Ford has put together bit of a surprising side, but a very, very strong side nonetheless. The 2 new Poles may not replicate their contentional form, but have no doubt they will still make a mockery over their dubious starting averages. A well-balanced side with no major weak links. Will probably become stronger as the season goes on; think Holder being @ 1 would give the side a more natural look. As things stand, can only see injuries standing in the way, unless another side has a major improver in their ranks.

    Prediction: Top by about 18 points!

    Key Man: Chris Holder

    Rye House

    I liked the Rye side of '17, they didn't really shine as I expected, but am going to back them again!

    KK will make or break their season. If he can get anywhere close to his best, KK @ 1 with Harris and Nicholls the other heat-leaders look a bloody potent spearhead. They're also guaranteed pretty much to have an awesome option at reserve all year too.

    But they're a bit like Leicester. If everything goes well for them, I expect they will be right up there, but can also see them struggling if things don't quite work out.

    Prediction: Sneaking the final play-off spot

    Key Man: KK

    Somerset

    Top #1 and solid at reserve all year long. Will be very tough to beat at home, although far from less impossible as most riders tend to take to the track quite well. Away form could be a struggle though. They are very similar to KL in many ways, and like KL they will require someone to make the next step up (to support Doyle). My gut feeling is that Holder is the best bet, but any of the "Others" could potentially do it. 

    Think they'll be in the mix with KL and Rye House for the final play-off spot, but ultimately finishing just short.

    Prediction: 5th

    Key Man: Jack Holder

    Swindon

    I like Mitchell, but there is no way in hell he is a Premiership rider.

    Waj should be, and would be a decent #7, but will find it tough @ 6. They are going to struggle in the reserve heats.

    Nor do I think they are anywhere near as strong at the top end. Batchelor can be hit and miss (last I heard he was without a mechanic for the year, as last year's is helping Hans Andersen), Bellego struggled badly towards the end of last season so quite what to expect of him is anyone's guess, Musielak was excellent last year but see limited improvement from him, and think Morris overperformed for Swindon last year.

    If, and it's a big if, they change the track mid-season, any HTA will be gone too, although like many I am not convinced it will ever happen.

    That being said, you just know that 7 won't last the season. When Morris' average takes a dive, and they can get a better reserve in for Davey, they will be a completly different side. One change can completly turn a side's fortunes - like last year.

    Prediction: 8th

    Key Man: David Bellego - he needs to bring the Frenchman that started the season, not the one at the end of the season.

    Wolverhampton

    Wolves are in much the same boat as Swindon, but are a bit stronger. I can't see that side lasting too long. Wolves have made changes in recent seasons to change their fortunes around, and am expecting much the same this year.

    Good to see Morris back in the Premiership, where he needs to be but think either himself or Heeps could be in a vulnerable position if they don't score well early on.

    Prediction: 7th

    Key Man: Jacob Thorsell - he's excellent round Monmore but returning from a big injury & @ #1 is a tough ask.

     

    Poole, aside, I think this year could be one of the closest yet for the play-off places. Heck, if Swindon and Wolves make the odd change here and there, I can imagine a scenario where there's not a lot between 2nd and 8th place. Should be a good year. Hopefully.

    • Like 5

  9. Posted

    Andersson will be a good addition to the league; think he will be the best of the 3 newcomers to the league (marginally ahead of Hartel, and more than marginally better than Lindman), and will likely be the third heat leader. He almost replaced Kurtz at Plymouth a few seasons ago, but finances played their part, from what I remember.
    Reckon he will average 6, maybe bit more if he takes a liking to Armadale.

    Quite like the rest of the side too actually. It doesn't have the wow factor of some previous Edinburgh sides, but looks like an intriguing side, and just needs one of Andersson/M Riss /Pickering to really make the third heat leader position their own to be a serious contender.

  10. Posted

    It's a most intriguing side. I think they will fare very well at home assuming Summers can hold his own @ 1, which has to be the main aim. There will be lots of movement in the averages, and I reckon most of the side could have a stint at reserve at some point during the season, which could well provide any rider with a needed lift-me-up.

  11. Posted

    8 hours ago, Haza said:

    I’ve heard a young Dane Kasper Andersen is in the frame for a team place . I’ve never heard of him to be honest 

    Did see his profile on the GSK Facebook page the other day that he seems to have a British club lined up which "can't be announced yet", so definitely think he will be over here next year, but figured it would be for a Championship side personally.

  17. Posted

    Ritchie Hawkins was asked via Twitter to confirm the conversion multiplier....

     

    1.3

     

    So Zach W should be 4.07 and Morley 4.17 (assuming 2.5% Brit reductions)

    The multiplier should only come into effect if the rider(s) have no relevant average, I would have thought. (Shanes, for example)

    Morley and Waj both have established second division averages, so assume they would return to the league on them.

    • Like 1

  18. Posted

    I have took these figures from the final averages sheets from the 3 leagues

     

    Morris.................................................................8.72 CL

    Lawson...............................................................8.65 CL

    Newman..............................................................6.10 CL

    Clegg...................................................................4.15 CL

    Ellis...........................5.56 PL x 1.3 conversion = 7.23 CL

    Wajtknecht................3.21 PL x 1.3 conversion = 4.17 CL

    Morley.........................9.49 NL only so new rider 2.00 CL

     

    That is my take on it & it is well under on 41.02 even without the reductions for British riders having ridden in the NL for 3 years.

    With 1.5 points to play with, there must be some discrepancies there.

     

    Last two, I think.

    Wajtknecht 3.00, Morley 3.85?

  20. Posted

    Hartel is very, very quick round Gustrow, but looked pretty poor round the huge Lublin track finishing last (behind Grondal) when I saw him.

    Think he will find Ipswich bit of a challenge but will probably do alright round Scunthorpe and Peterborough.

    Definitely not afraid to get stuck in though as Fricke and Howarth found out.

    • Like 1

  21. Posted

    Just because he is a GP rider shouldn't necessarily mean he should be an 8. It should also be based on league form in Poland and Sweden but no one will argue with an 8pt average for Vaculik. Pieszczek should be about a 6 going by his average in other countries.

    Think either 6.50 (or 6) would be fairest for all concerned. Vaculik should be about 8.50.

    Long gone are the days when new foreign riders would have to contend with the more unorthodox tracks like Lakeside and Eastbourne, and one should expect a new international rider would fare pretty well on most UK tracks.

  23. Posted

    SS you State “Each Licence as a distance protection” and mention 30 miles,so how come Peterborough changed there race day to a Sunday the same as Mildenhall, and that’s much less than 30 miles, but yet The BSPA allowed it.

    Longest 30 miles I have ever driven!

    • Like 1
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