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dontforgetthefueltapsbruv

Time For A Rethink In Rolling Averages?

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Extreme deviant?...are you still talking statistics or have you been speaking to some of the women I used to know!!!

 

:lol:

 

I'm not sure!

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Would it be more meaningful to have a league average that is calculated from all riders, and all rides: then each individual is given a standard deviation rather than an average?

 

Off the top of my head no, but i can't see what the advantage of that using SD is against +/- the mean average.

 

RA's are fine once one finds the sample size sweet spot that balances the responsiveness of the average moving with performance against its real value.

Edited by Dekker

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Off the top of my head no, but i can't see what the advantage of that using SD is against +/- the mean average.

 

RA's are fine once one finds the sample size sweet spot that balances the responsiveness of the average moving with performance against its real value.

Exactly what I was thinking :wink::D

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Off the top of my head no, but i can't see what the advantage of that using SD is against +/- the mean average.

 

RA's are fine once one finds the sample size sweet spot that balances the responsiveness of the average moving with performance against its real value.

 

Hmmmmmmm, your final sentence, explain to me how you do that...

 

:rolleyes:

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Hmmmmmmm, your final sentence, explain to me how you do that...

 

:rolleyes:

Hmmmmmmm, your final sentence, explain to me how you do that...

 

:rolleyes:

It's the square root that caues the problems IMO :blink:

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It's the square root that caues the problems IMO :blink:

 

Wonder what BFD's take on that.

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the variance of the average is proportional to the sample size, i.e. the more data points in the set then the increased sample size dampens the variation.

 

but i guess you knew that...

 

its just a question of picking the right sample size say near 3/4 of the average number of meetings a rider does per season.

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It's the square root that caues the problems IMO :blink:

It's not, actually, it solves many problems.

One of my reasons for thinking it may be useful in speedway averages is that the squared function emphasis the extremes.

 

the variance of the average is proportional to the sample size, i.e. the more data points in the set then the increased sample size dampens the variation.

 

but i guess you knew that...

 

its just a question of picking the right sample size say near 3/4 of the average number of meetings a rider does per season.

Indeed, but you would want to have some sensitivity to variation within the sample set in this case.

Or maybe not?

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Indeed, but you would want to have some sensitivity to variation within the sample set in this case.

Or maybe not?

 

you want a balance between sensitivity and accuracy, play around with sample size to taste.

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you want a balance between sensitivity and accuracy, play around with sample size to taste.

I agree, I suppose we should be talking about precision rather than accuracy too.

 

I don't agree that accuracy is proportional to sample size. It surely cannot be a linear relationship?

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Must be nowt on the tele tonight.

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Must be nowt on the tele tonight.

 

Never watch the thing, maybe this thread is a message that I should start!

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I agree, I suppose we should be talking about precision rather than accuracy too.

 

I don't agree that accuracy is proportional to sample size. It surely cannot be a linear relationship?

 

i'm trying to explain in layman's terms so people can understand the principles involved, i'll leave the formulae till later, generally speaking more data points improve the average calculated but too many make the average very slow to follow form. It's a balancing act to get it right, rather than picking a seemingly arbitrary number someone should have modelled 2 or 3 years worth of green sheet data into some test case models to see what sample size looked good.

Edited by Dekker

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i'm trying to explain in layman's terms so people can understand the principals involved, i'll leave the formulae till later, generally speaking more data points improve the average calculated but too many make the average very slow to follow form. It's a balancing act to get it right, rather than picking a seemingly arbitrary number someone should have modelled 2 or 3 years worth of green sheet data into some test case models to see what sample size looked good.

 

I lost the will to live about 6 post's ago how's that for accuracy or was it layman's terms or it might be precision or will i just get my coat :lol:

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i'm trying to explain in layman's terms so people can understand the principles involved, i'll leave the formulae till later, generally speaking more data points improve the average calculated but too many make the average very slow to follow form. It's a balancing act to get it right, rather than picking a seemingly arbitrary number someone should have modelled 2 or 3 years worth of green sheet data into some test case models to see what sample size looked good.

 

One has to posit the question though, is average the correct function if the main aim is to analyse form?

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