European Union - In Or Out?

[Grachan 6,788]

On 5/12/2021 at 6:46 AM, Steve Shovlar said:

We are talking losses in the billions of pounds both ways, in just the first 4 months of brexit. With just one country we deal with. We didn’t see this on the side of the red bus.

As you say. Just one country. UK trade figures are here: UK Overseas Trade in Goods Statistics March 2021 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

Exports to Switzerland March 2020 - 1660 million

Export to Switzerland March 2021 - 5689 million.

Thats +29%

Just one country though.

Also, exports to Germany in March 2020 was 2825 million. Yes, in February 2021 that had dropped to 2331 million, but in March 2021 was up to 3029 million - more than in March 2020.

In fact, taking the World top 10 countries, exports have risen between March 2020 and March 2021 to all of them except Spain, and exports to Spain have risen from Feb 2021 to March 2021.

It's easy to just choose selective figures, as you can see.

 

Edited May 13, 2021 by Grachan

[DC2 10,664]

Blimey, Grachan, you posted that two hours ago and still no reply!

Remoaners choking on their cornflakes?   

[Grachan 6,788]

1 hour ago, DC2 said:

Blimey, Grachan, you posted that two hours ago and still no reply!

Remoaners choking on their cornflakes?   

I think I made an error with trade to Switzerland actually.

1660 million is 29% of 5689 million, but it's not a rise of 29%. Its a rise of 342%. I think.

Edited May 13, 2021 by Grachan

[DC2 10,664]

2 minutes ago, Grachan said:

I think I made an error with trade to Switzerland actually.

1660 million is 29% of 5689 million, but it's not a rise of 29%. Its a rise of 342%. I think.

Indeed, apparently Shovlar has been exporting our cuckoos to Switzerland.  

Edited May 13, 2021 by DC2

[E I Addio 14,283]

42 minutes ago, DC2 said:

Indeed, apparently Shovlar has been exporting our cuckoos to Switzerland.  

Ah , that explains why he has been spending so much time in Cloud Cuckoo Land

[Humphrey Appleby 11,033]

1 hour ago, DC2 said:

Blimey, Grachan, you posted that two hours ago and still no reply!

Remoaners choking on their cornflakes?   

Some of us don't spend every waking minute or here, but it seems Brexiteers are easily taken in, and disappointing that Grachan seems been sucked in by it too. 

Those quoted figures are only from a 2 month period, and comparing them with March 2020 which is exactly when COVID hit. However, if you go back to the 2019 report, which is the last full year before COVID, it's pretty obvious that trade with nearly every partner - particularly the EU ones - is significantly down.

For example - exports to France were 24.7 billion in 2019, but 1.8 billion (in March) extrapolated for 12 months = 21.6 billion. US trade was 57.4 billion 2019, but 4.3 billion (in March) x 12 = 51.6 billion. 

I agree that Switzerland appears to be a bit of an anomaly compared to 2019, but equally there was a huge dip in trade from 2018 and going back to further shows huge fluctuations from year-to-year. No idea why - may be related to the GBP-CHF exchange rate - but exports to that destination are clearly volatile so a couple of months of data don't really prove anything. 

Don't have any cornflakes because they're too difficult to import now, but just as another example - I tried to obtain two F-connector modules for a particular type of AV wall outlet, which now only seem to be available in the US. So I ordered them, they didn't arrive, and then I got a note to say they were unable to export them due to custom restrictions. The exact same modules used to be available in the UK, an F-connector is just a piece of metal and plastic carrying imperceptible current, so what on earth has the UK changed so these can no longer be imported.

That sums up 'Global Britain'... 

[DC2 10,664]

5 minutes ago, Humphrey Appleby said:

 

Those quoted figures are only from a 2 month period, and comparing them with March 2020 which is exactly when COVID hit. However, if you go back to the 2019 report, which is the last full year before COVID, it's pretty obvious that trade with nearly every partner - particularly the EU ones - is significantly down.

 

Now you’re making the mistake of comparing pre-Covid trade with “during the pandemic” trade.

It’s bound to improve!

[Grachan 6,788]

15 minutes ago, Humphrey Appleby said:

Some of us don't spend every waking minute or here, but it seems Brexiteers are easily taken in, and disappointing that Grachan seems been sucked in by it too. 

Those quoted figures are only from a 2 month period, and comparing them with March 2020 which is exactly when COVID hit. However, if you go back to the 2019 report, which is the last full year before COVID, it's pretty obvious that trade with nearly every partner - particularly the EU ones - is significantly down.

For example - exports to France were 24.7 billion in 2019, but 1.8 billion (in March) extrapolated for 12 months = 21.6 billion. US trade was 57.4 billion 2019, but 4.3 billion (in March) x 12 = 51.6 billion. 

I agree that Switzerland appears to be a bit of an anomaly compared to 2019, but equally there was a huge dip in trade from 2018 and going back to further shows huge fluctuations from year-to-year. No idea why - may be related to the GBP-CHF exchange rate - but exports to that destination are clearly volatile so a couple of months of data don't really prove anything. 

Don't have any cornflakes because they're too difficult to import now, but just as another example - I tried to obtain two F-connector modules for a particular type of AV wall outlet, which now only seem to be available in the US. So I ordered them, they didn't arrive, and then I got a note to say they were unable to export them due to custom restrictions. The exact same modules used to be available in the UK, an F-connector is just a piece of metal and plastic carrying imperceptible current, so what on earth has the UK changed so these can no longer be imported.

That sums up 'Global Britain'... 

The post I was replying to was also covering a small period - first quarter 2020 to first quarter 2021. Which means if the figures I quoted are a result of Covid then so must the figures in the original post also be.

Are you saying that you can't compare figures from March 2021 to March 2020 and need to put them down to Covid, but can compare them to 2019 when there was no Covid and put them down to leaving the EU?

 

[Humphrey Appleby 11,033]

3 minutes ago, DC2 said:

Now you’re making the mistake of comparing pre-Covid trade with “during the pandemic” trade.

Of course I am, because that's the only meaningful comparison.

However, certain goods should be relatively unaffected (beyond temporary port closures at the beginning of the year) because they're inelastic, and you'd still expect UK trade to recover similarly to those of other countries who were also affected by COVID. But it's quite clear that it's lagging compared to other EU countries, which down to the Brexit effect. 

I notice as well, that no-one is mentioning services either, which constitute a significant proportion of export earnings and are particularly important as the UK had a trade surplus in that area.

[Humphrey Appleby 11,033]

2 minutes ago, Grachan said:

The post I was replying to was also covering a small period - first quarter 2020 to first quarter 2021. Which means if the figures I quoted are a result of Covid then so must the figures in the original post also be.

Are you saying that you can't compare figures from March 2021 to March 2020 and need to put them down to Covid, but can compare them to 2019 when there was no Covid and put them down to leaving the EU?

I'm saying those particular comparisons are irrelevant to prove anything beyond the fact that trade was better in March than February 2021. Which is hardly surprising as I think January and February saw one of the worst falls in trade in history.

It didn't stop the Brexiteers clutching at the usual straws though...  

[E I Addio 14,283]

 

UK trade recovering but picture is clouded by Covid and Brexit | Larry Elliott | The Guardian

[TonyE 803]

36 minutes ago, Humphrey Appleby said:

Some of us don't spend every waking minute or here, but it seems Brexiteers are easily taken in, and disappointing that Grachan seems been sucked in by it too. 

Those quoted figures are only from a 2 month period, and comparing them with March 2020 which is exactly when COVID hit. However, if you go back to the 2019 report, which is the last full year before COVID, it's pretty obvious that trade with nearly every partner - particularly the EU ones - is significantly down.

For example - exports to France were 24.7 billion in 2019, but 1.8 billion (in March) extrapolated for 12 months = 21.6 billion. US trade was 57.4 billion 2019, but 4.3 billion (in March) x 12 = 51.6 billion. 

I agree that Switzerland appears to be a bit of an anomaly compared to 2019, but equally there was a huge dip in trade from 2018 and going back to further shows huge fluctuations from year-to-year. No idea why - may be related to the GBP-CHF exchange rate - but exports to that destination are clearly volatile so a couple of months of data don't really prove anything. 

Don't have any cornflakes because they're too difficult to import now, but just as another example - I tried to obtain two F-connector modules for a particular type of AV wall outlet, which now only seem to be available in the US. So I ordered them, they didn't arrive, and then I got a note to say they were unable to export them due to custom restrictions. The exact same modules used to be available in the UK, an F-connector is just a piece of metal and plastic carrying imperceptible current, so what on earth has the UK changed so these can no longer be imported.

That sums up 'Global Britain'... 

13.5K posts is coming close.

[Humphrey Appleby 11,033]

6 minutes ago, TonyE said:

13.5K posts is coming close.

An average of 2.8 posts per day - still leaves about 23 hours and 45 minutes to do other things...! 

[E I Addio 14,283]

46 minutes ago, Humphrey Appleby said:

 

Don't have any cornflakes because they're too difficult to import now,

 The Kelloggs factory in Manchester may be North of Watford, but there is no import tariff for the rest of the UK

[Steve Shovlar 9,069]

Grachan, you chose Switzerland but Switzerland is not in the EU and I have found very little in the way of exporting to my customers there. In respect to that country little has changed.

It was reported this morning, on 5live, that trading was down dramatically with all EU countries in the first 4 months of 2021, while trade was flat lining elsewhere. Clearly a brexit effect. And I should know being an exporter to the EU. It is impossible to trade to the EU with any confidence. Almost impossible to trade and retain a customer after a single transaction.