A Few Years Down The Line

[B.V 72 1,054]

Who in a few years time can challenge the Poles their youngsters are top of the world now.

All the top Swedish and Danish riders are now in their 30s(Kildermand) just under.So in a few years time these riders could be past their best.Maybe its just me but at this time i cannot see where the potential talent is to replace these riders.The Australians have a few riders showing potential.Lambert maybe for GB.But who are the next top Swedish and Danish riders.

In the past you could see lots of talent on the rise but to me there are not that many stand out young riders at the moment (apart from the Poles)If things dont change where will this leave the Swc and the GPs.

I am hoping that someone with more knowledge of the international seen can provide a list of riders i have missed.

Edited August 6, 2016 by B.V 72

[racers and royals 8,720]

Who in a few years time can challenge the Poles their youngsters are top of the world now.

All the top Swedish and Danish riders are now in their 30s(Kildermand) just under.So in a few years time these riders could be past their best.Maybe its just me but at this time i cannot see where the potential talent is to replace these riders.The Australians have a few riders showing potential.Lambert maybe for GB.But who are the next top Swedish and Danish riders.

In the past you could see lots of talent on the rise but to me there are not that many stand out young riders at the moment (apart from the Poles)If things dont change where will this leave the Swc and the GPs.

I am hoping that someone with more knowledge of the international seen can provide a list of riders i have missed.

Only a fool would argue against Poland being the dominant nation for young riders- however we might know more 2 weeks today when the final of the u21 team is held in Sweden

 

 

Reprezentacja Australii - czerwone kaski:

1. Brady Kurtz (kapitan)

2. Jake Allen

3. Max Fricke

4. Jack Holder

Rezerwowy: Cameron Heeps

Menadżer: Mark Lemon

 

 

 

 

 

Reprezentacja Danii - niebieskie kaski:

1. Frederik Jakobsen

2. Mikkel B. Andersen (kapitan)

3. Patrick Hansen

4. Andreas Lyager

Rezerwowy: Jonas Jeppesen

Menadżer: Henrik Moller

 

 

Reprezentacja Szwecji - białe kaski:

1. Kenny Wennerstam

2. Joel Kling (kapitan)

3. Alex Johansson

4. Joel Andersson

Rezerwowy: Filip Hjelmland

Menadżer: Anders Fröjd

 

 

Reprezentacja Polski - żółte kaski:

1. Krystian Pieszczek

2. Bartosz Zmarzlik (kapitan)

3. Pawel Przedpelski

4. Bartosz Smektala

Rezerwowy: Daniel Kaczmarek

Menadżer: Rafał Dobrucki

 

It has to be remembered however that out with a broken leg is the best 18 year old rider in the world(my opinion) - Maksym Drabik

If you get a chance have a look at this video from a month ago- gives a bit of a clue to who might be the new stars of the future. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28jYRJ-Zrnc

[waiheke1 4,295]

In gps the riders who i see challenging tai are the likes of emil dudek zmarzlik janowski pawlicki, bit of those I would say only emil would be a genuine contender in 2017, bUT the others could be by the end of the decade.

You could add the likes of Fricke lambert drabik but I'd suggest it will be more than 5 years before they would be a real tgreat.

 

In the swc an aussie team of holder Doyle fticke and Kurtz could challenge the poles oin a few years. But Poland should be the dominant force at swc level for the next decade.

[f-s-p 832]

Denmark is the only safe bet. Not giving any odds though. Russia is a huge unknown, but according to some research by the FIM they had the biggest 85cc scene in the world a few years back. That might mean nothing though, as me thinks an organised system is lacking in the country scale picture. Dont know.

 

EDIT: slight misunderstanding on my part, you were asking riders. Still the same answer though, Danish riders with Russians as the unknown.

Edited August 6, 2016 by f-s-p

[arnieg 3,635]

Here's my best guess (and given how much could happen it really is no more than that).

 

Assuming the format is unchanged and that the age profile is similar, we can expect :

 

3 veterans who are already world stars

9 riders in the 25-34 age bracket at the peak of their careers, but currently in 2016 still working their way towards the top

3 Younger riders who aren't even riding 500cc machines yet

 

The problem is that when I review the candidates I end up with way to many Poles!

 

The veterans: Woffinden, Sayfutdinov and Janowski

 

Central/'peak' group: Patryk Dudek (my best guess at 2026 World champ), Piotr Pawlicki, Bartosz Zmarzlik and Michael Jepsen Jensen - all of whom are already well on their way to long term GP status; plus five younger riders currently on their way up in: Max Fricke, Robert Lambert, Maxym Drabik, Krystian Pieszczek and Pawel Przedpelski.

 

The Youngsters: Pick any three from - Mads Hansen, Matthew Gilmore, Casper Henriksson, Benjamin Basso and Kyle Bickley (but given they are so young these are highly speculative, and I haven't even considered any Polish youngsters)

 

[it is worth noting that under 16 success is a very poor guide to future world stardom. The winners of the FIM Youth Gold Trophy between 2001 and 2007 were: Casper Wortmann, Nikolai Klindt, Kenneth Hansen, Nicki Barrett, Simon Nielsen, Michael Palm Toft and Anders Mellgren]

 

That gives us seven Poles (and that is before considering the merits of riders like Smektala and Kubera), so I'd suggest that some of the Poles will fall by the wayside/get overlooked and leave room for Jack Holder, Brady Kurtz and Joel Andersson.

 

And of course we should expect at least one 'slow-burner' like Kildemand or Doyle to establish themselves

[lucifer sam 3,953]

What's slightly weird is the lack of Polish World Champions. Since the start of the GP series:

 

Sweden 5 (Rickardsson 5)

Denmark 4 (Nielsen 1, Pedersen 3)

Australia 4 (Crump 3, Holder 1)

USA 4 (Hamill 1, Hancock 3)

England 3 (Loram 1, Woffinden 2)

Poland 1 (Gollob 1)

 

For some reason, the Poles have not produced individual World Champions, while dominating the World Cup.

 

Will Woffinden/ Hancock/ Sayfutdinov continue to thwart the Poles for the next decade?

 

All the best

Rob

[Triple.H. 1,985]

Emil Dudek Zmarzlik Janowski Pawlicki.

Heard on the grapevine that Matt Ford has signed this much sought after youngster for next season.

[SCB 0]

Just wait for someone to suggest Chris Kerr. He always used to get mentioned on these threads. And Kyle Legault got a lot of mentions too.

[PHILIPRISING 7,298]

PERSONALLY think that Zmarzlik will be the next Polish World Champion and not too far down the line.

[Fromafar 10,358]

PERSONALLY think that Zmarzlik will be the next Polish World Champion and not too far down the line.

He certainly looked the part in the WTC.

[waiheke1 4,295]

Here's my best guess (and given how much could happen it really is no more than that).

 

Assuming the format is unchanged and that the age profile is similar, we can expect :

 

3 veterans who are already world stars

9 riders in the 25-34 age bracket at the peak of their careers, but currently in 2016 still working their way towards the top

3 Younger riders who aren't even riding 500cc machines yet

 

The problem is that when I review the candidates I end up with way to many Poles!

 

The veterans: Woffinden, Sayfutdinov and Janowski

 

Central/'peak' group: Patryk Dudek (my best guess at 2026 World champ), Piotr Pawlicki, Bartosz Zmarzlik and Michael Jepsen Jensen - all of whom are already well on their way to long term GP status; plus five younger riders currently on their way up in: Max Fricke, Robert Lambert, Maxym Drabik, Krystian Pieszczek and Pawel Przedpelski.

 

The Youngsters: Pick any three from - Mads Hansen, Matthew Gilmore, Casper Henriksson, Benjamin Basso and Kyle Bickley (but given they are so young these are highly speculative, and I haven't even considered any Polish youngsters)

 

[it is worth noting that under 16 success is a very poor guide to future world stardom. The winners of the FIM Youth Gold Trophy between 2001 and 2007 were: Casper Wortmann, Nikolai Klindt, Kenneth Hansen, Nicki Barrett, Simon Nielsen, Michael Palm Toft and Anders Mellgren]

 

That gives us seven Poles (and that is before considering the merits of riders like Smektala and Kubera), so I'd suggest that some of the Poles will fall by the wayside/get overlooked and leave room for Jack Holder, Brady Kurtz and Joel Andersson.

 

And of course we should expect at least one 'slow-burner' like Kildemand or Doyle to establish themselves

Really good post arnie g. Suspect there may be more than 3 "unknowns". If you look at this year's line up the likes of tai holder killer Doyle zmarzlik pawlicki and janowski were basically unknown.

Pedersen Hancock zagar Jonsson hampel nki lindback were in the series.

Only Harris was "in between'

Against that you have a superb crop of youngsters who will be around their peak in 10 years time so your split could be right.

I can't see there being more than 5 or 6 poles in the series, no matter how strong the crop, so if I have to name 12 "known" riders how about:

Tai lambert Fricke Thomsen thorssel emil dudek zmarzlik jankowski pawlicki drabik j holder. 3 unknowns including one dane and one poles. And maybe another swede.

PERSONALLY think that Zmarzlik will be the next Polish World Champion and not too far down the line.

2018 I think he and dudek will be genuine challengers to Tai and (hopefully) Emil. And Greg of course could still be in the mix.

What's slightly weird is the lack of Polish World Champions. Since the start of the GP series:

 

Sweden 5 (Rickardsson 5)

Denmark 4 (Nielsen 1, Pedersen 3)

Australia 4 (Crump 3, Holder 1)

USA 4 (Hamill 1, Hancock 3)

England 3 (Loram 1, Woffinden 2)

Poland 1 (Gollob 1)

 

For some reason, the Poles have not produced individual World Champions, while dominating the World Cup.

 

Will Woffinden/ Hancock/ Sayfutdinov continue to thwart the Poles for the next decade?

 

All the best

Rob

You could say the same about England in the 70s. Nz and Denmark were minor nations but had one outstanding rider apiece who dominated (Briggs at the start and Nielsen at the dnd of the decade could stetch that to two outstanding riders).

[SCB 0]

You could say the same about England in the 70s. Nz and Denmark were minor nations but had one outstanding rider apiece who dominated (Briggs at the start and Nielsen at the dnd of the decade could stetch that to two outstanding riders).

GB have been steady winners of World titles really.

1940s - 1

1950s - 3

1960s - 2

1970s - 1

1980s - 1

1990s - 1

2000s - 1

2010s - 2

 

Woffy coming along looks set to mess that up a bit! And could just be that "dominant rider" that comes along as wins loads for a while.

 

I believe that with 8 different World Champions we've had more World Champions that any other nation. Sweden, Denmark, USA and Australia all have 5. Poland only have 1 more than Germany and in terms of total titles (ie not unique winners) have as many as Wales

Edited August 8, 2016 by SCB

[waiheke1 4,295]

Have any of our world champs been "gaters "? Can't think of any, though dont know enough about the post war champs.

Possibly why none have been multi world champs, the Hancocks/gundersens/maugers more successful than your collins/gollobs.

Tai can get out of the gate pretty well on his day, but has to do a fair amount from the back, though that first bend cutback seems to do a fair bit of the work for him.

[phillipsr 2,053]

Have any of our world champs been "gaters "? Can't think of any, though dont know enough about the post war champs.

Possibly why none have been multi world champs, the Hancocks/gundersens/maugers more successful than your collins/gollobs.

Tai can get out of the gate pretty well on his day, but has to do a fair amount from the back, though that first bend cutback seems to do a fair bit of the work for him.

 

Said last year that I believed Tai to be the best 1st/2nd bend rider in the world but think id extend that out to the best 1st lap rider, When he gates he is unbeatable IMO but how often is he 2nd/3rd at Turn 1 and leading into bend 3

[SCB 0]

Have any of our world champs been "gaters "? Can't think of any, though dont know enough about the post war champs.

Possibly why none have been multi world champs, the Hancocks/gundersens/maugers more successful than your collins/gollobs.

Tai can get out of the gate pretty well on his day, but has to do a fair amount from the back, though that first bend cutback seems to do a fair bit of the work for him.

On that one, when you look at the number of GPs we have won compared to laps lead in GP finals I bet we have an amazing ratio! How often has a Brit ever lead a GP final out of the start? Harris lead his for all of about a metre, Loram in Linkoping lead for about 100-150ish metres. Dugard lead for a whole 3 laps. Woffy has won 6 GPs and I know he's passed Hancock and Zagar in finals plus gated last at Warsaw this year but lead coming out of bend 4. Sadly I can't remember Mark Lorams win in Vojens, just that he won. But I doubt he gated! Woffy has gated his way to 3 wins in Prague though.