Robbobee 144 Posted November 28, 2016 Plus it's been said anywhere (yet) that your top rider has to ride at number one anyway! Agreed - I can see Kenneth Bjerre riding at No 1 for Bees and Danny K at 5 ....despite their averages saying different. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Agrotron 955 Posted November 28, 2016 He was over for the Olympique and rumoured to be wanting a team place here. Ah ok thanks for the clarification 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SCB 0 Posted November 28, 2016 Agreed - I can see Kenneth Bjerre riding at No 1 for Bees and Danny K at 5 ....despite their averages saying different. Im sure the year Kenneth had his best season he was at number 5. Might be worth putting him at 5 if it's what works best for him. Otherwise I'd have Garrity at 5 to ride with Sarj and Bates, meaning to the two Bjerre together and King/Kerr together. Basically, I'd not have King at 5, whatever route we go down. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dabbsjoe 149 Posted November 28, 2016 Anyone think maybe Bridger could be at Wolves? only if he's doing a stretch in prison 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Beowulf 1,513 Posted November 28, 2016 I think its critical that we sign Masters. Then we have 2 heat leaders who are capable of improvement (Thorssell the other) 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SCB 0 Posted November 28, 2016 dragged oevr to the correct thread... SCB - as you are the respected wise sage of the forum, is Howarth a poor/expensive signing on that average ? Sorry - wrong thread. It depends how you want to look at it. You can simply take his EL figure and multiply by 1.4 and if his PL average is higher, it's a poor value signing. So he got 5.1, multiplied by 1.4 and you get 7.147 and his EL average is.....7.18 so looks about right. But, you could look at it that his EL average was mostly from reserve. Using my weighted averages (which you now have to divide by 40 and multiply by 50 and then mulitply by 1.4) I'd say he should be nearer 6.72. But ultimately, it's not a million miles from being wrong. Only thing I will say is that his average was achieved with a home/away split (with bonus points) of 8.32/7.81 so nothing in it. While in the EL he was 7.33/5.01. Suggesting as he'll now have some home advantage on that average that he didn't have last season he's actually a very good signing. I'm not sure if I've convinced myself he's good, bad or ok as a signing there Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ben91 1,743 Posted November 28, 2016 of his last 20 meetings, he rode 13 as HL, 2 as 2nd strong, 5 as reserve. Kerr/Bates/Sarj spent their time bewteen 2nd strong and reserve. I would say without a doubt Klindt is 2 points better than those riders, SCB's "weighted average" stats from last year reflect this. And of course, his average is in fact lower that both Kerr and Sarjeant. that said, Kerr was somewhat disapointing last year, having been arguably the pick of the draft riders the previous year, and Bates has a lot of improvement to come. I'd still be highly surpised if Klindt does not average 1.5 more than any of those others, even though i expect the others to spend much more time in the easier reserve berth. The averages being used are the ones attained in PL racing though, Klindt has a five point PL average for a reason, a similar figure to Kerr, Bates, Sarjeant etc. Most people averages around six in the EL, because the race format was awful. So to say he is that much better than them is simply not true, particularly when the Premiership is going to be slightly stronger PL teams as opposed to weaker EL sides. Klindt won't be averaging 1.5 more than them in 2017 in the Premiership. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wolfsbane 12,944 Posted November 28, 2016 dragged oevr to the correct thread... It depends how you want to look at it. You can simply take his EL figure and multiply by 1.4 and if his PL average is higher, it's a poor value signing. So he got 5.1, multiplied by 1.4 and you get 7.147 and his EL average is.....7.18 so looks about right. But, you could look at it that his EL average was mostly from reserve. Using my weighted averages (which you now have to divide by 40 and multiply by 50 and then mulitply by 1.4) I'd say he should be nearer 6.72. But ultimately, it's not a million miles from being wrong. Only thing I will say is that his average was achieved with a home/away split (with bonus points) of 8.32/7.81 so nothing in it. While in the EL he was 7.33/5.01. Suggesting as he'll now have some home advantage on that average that he didn't have last season he's actually a very good signing. I'm not sure if I've convinced myself he's good, bad or ok as a signing there I thought you said Horton had signed all the decent Brits? The averages being used are the ones attained in PL racing though, Klindt has a five point PL average for a reason, a similar figure to Kerr, Bates, Sarjeant etc. Most people averages around six in the EL, because the race format was awful. So to say he is that much better than them is simply not true, particularly when the Premiership is going to be slightly stronger PL teams as opposed to weaker EL sides. Klindt won't be averaging 1.5 more than them in 2017 in the Premiership. Will a member of the BSPA give us all an early Christmas present and announce the signing of Nic bloody Klindt 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Beowulf 1,513 Posted November 28, 2016 dragged oevr to the correct thread... It depends how you want to look at it. You can simply take his EL figure and multiply by 1.4 and if his PL average is higher, it's a poor value signing. So he got 5.1, multiplied by 1.4 and you get 7.147 and his EL average is.....7.18 so looks about right. But, you could look at it that his EL average was mostly from reserve. Using my weighted averages (which you now have to divide by 40 and multiply by 50 and then mulitply by 1.4) I'd say he should be nearer 6.72. But ultimately, it's not a million miles from being wrong. Only thing I will say is that his average was achieved with a home/away split (with bonus points) of 8.32/7.81 so nothing in it. While in the EL he was 7.33/5.01. Suggesting as he'll now have some home advantage on that average that he didn't have last season he's actually a very good signing. I'm not sure if I've convinced myself he's good, bad or ok as a signing there Thank you, I'm totally clear now. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
waiheke1 4,295 Posted November 28, 2016 The averages being used are the ones attained in PL racing though, Klindt has a five point PL average for a reason, a similar figure to Kerr, Bates, Sarjeant etc. Most people averages around six in the EL, because the race format was awful. So to say he is that much better than them is simply not true, particularly when the Premiership is going to be slightly stronger PL teams as opposed to weaker EL sides. Klindt won't be averaging 1.5 more than them in 2017 in the Premiership. He only rode 4 pl meetings last year, so his SCB weighted El average is a much better gauge. He averaged over 7 in the pl in 2015. Lets see cone end of season which of those 4 riders averages the most. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
INCOGNITO 357 Posted November 28, 2016 (edited) What about Fred 10.09 Jacob 9.89 Sam 8.97 Kyle 7.18 Schlein 7.17 Max 4.34 ? 2.00 -------- 49.64 Maybe the best way to go but Howarth isn't going to average anywhere near that figure and with reserves not being so protected, it's unlikely he will drop down and even if he did, Max would be moving up. The signing of Howarth by Wolves surprised me, What the Howarth signing does confirm for me is that Wolves lowest averaging rider to start the year will be Clegg. No 2 pointers. No too top heavy for a CVS/Adams team. Lindgren 10.09 Musielak 6.34 Howarth 7.18 Proctor 6.68 Thorsell 9.88 Clegg 4.34 Klindt 5.42 0.07 to spare. That's on the assumption that Sam Masters isn't returning. But would you really want to go with Howarth at number three as a heat leader ? Ty Proctor hasn't been in the news much regarding riding and while it can be remembered how well he can go at Wolves, it's a big gamble bringing him back and into the top league even if it is watered down from previous years. Adam Skornicki falls into the same bracket and while his average should be much higher, Steve Boxall and Robert Mears had their averages reassessed after missing under three years. There are other options, see below Has Musielak been linked with the club then as a potential signing? He came to Wolves as he had reached the age of 21and was no longer at reserve and therefore unlike Pawlicki, he could be replaced in the Leszno team if required and sadly he didn't have a great time here, mainly due to the Monmore track but he showed at Belle Vue, Swindon and Poole he could score away. With the bond Wolves have with Skornicki, they have heard how last season he improved to something like the rider he was expected to turn into and in Sweden he also showed signs of getting back on track. Pete Adams likes Tobiasz and through Adam who has worked with him over the last two seasons, he is worth bringing back on 6.34 in a league weaker than the one he first came into at 6.50. Riding in the Olympique showed he can be a decent signing and the fact he shipped his own bikes over proves he wants to be considered and would say it's short odds that he will be back as a second string. I think its critical that we sign Masters. Then we have 2 heat leaders who are capable of improvement (Thorssell the other)While a strong top three is appealing, in Freddie and Jacob you have enough firepower and including Masters will mean a weaker tail end. If you didn't include Masters you could go with the team COL posted earlier but instead of Proctor maybe look at Kyle Newman 6.31 or Paul Starke 6.64 or maybe a gamble of Kacper Woryna 6.51 who surprisingly isn't in the Bees team. Will a member of the BSPA give us all an early Christmas present and announce the signing of Nic bloody Klindt Why a member of the BSPA ? Think Nicolai will be named soon but will it be at Monmore or Wimborne ? Edited November 28, 2016 by INCOGNITO Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SCB 0 Posted November 28, 2016 He only rode 4 pl meetings last year, so his SCB weighted El average is a much better gauge. He averaged over 7 in the pl in 2015. Lets see cone end of season which of those 4 riders averages the most. The thing with Klindt is he gates, he wins. He doesn't gate and he's doesn't win. It doesn't matter what level he rides at he gates 50% of the time so averages about 6 at that level. But for one bad season the EL on 4ish he's always been 6ish in the PL or the EL. While I think the 5.4 is a nice average I'm not convinced he's going to get much more than 6.5 as that's what he averages. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
waiheke1 4,295 Posted November 28, 2016 The thing with Klindt is he gates, he wins. He doesn't gate and he's doesn't win. It doesn't matter what level he rides at he gates 50% of the time so averages about 6 at that level. But for one bad season the EL on 4ish he's always been 6ish in the PL or the EL. While I think the 5.4 is a nice average I'm not convinced he's going to get much more than 6.5 as that's what he averages.Assuming though he averages 6.5, a gain of a point. Most riders will lose a point. So that's a 2 point swing over comparable riders. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SCB 0 Posted November 28, 2016 Assuming though he averages 6.5, a gain of a point. Most riders will lose a point. So that's a 2 point swing over comparable riders.Agreed. I think he's a decent signing. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
A ORLOV 8,628 Posted November 28, 2016 Think Nicolai will be named soon but will it be at Monmore or Wimborne ? Or could it be Swindon ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
