Somerset 2017

[Gunner85 603]

The important signing is a good no 1 and I hope they make a good choice and have a long duration in the top league.

[Grachan 7,362]

And no way would we want him. It seems absolutely pointless to sign any rider over a 12.00 average as they are only going to drop that average. Grajczonek, Tungate, Starke, Wright and Allen have to be nailed on, Plus two more.

 

In that case it is absolutely pointless putting a team together up to the 50 limit as it is only going to drop that average.

 

Much better to put a team together with an average of 42.

[Najjer 2,889]

 

In that case it is absolutely pointless putting a team together up to the 50 limit as it is only going to drop that average.

 

Much better to put a team together with an average of 42.

 

It's a good job you aren't a team manager then isn't it? A team that wins the League will average much higher than the team at the bottom of the league. Signing a rider with an average over 12.00 can only lose value whereas a rider below that can potentially gain value. If you build a team upto a 50.00 average and everyone was to improve on their average, I'd say you have a good shout at winning the league!

[Grachan 7,362]

 

It's a good job you aren't a team manager then isn't it? A team that wins the League will average much higher than the team at the bottom of the league. Signing a rider with an average over 12.00 can only lose value whereas a rider below that can potentially gain value. If you build a team upto a 50.00 average and everyone was to improve on their average, I'd say you have a good shout at winning the league!

 

I think you missed my point.

 

What I meant was that, in theory, everybody is going to drop their averages. Everyone is focusing on Doyle because he is over 12 but is no more highly assessed than anybody else who only rode EL last year.

 

With a points limit of 50 the averages are all going to drop barring massive improvers.

 

My comment about having an average of 42 was sarcasm - aka the lowest form of wit.

[Grachan 7,362]

As an example, you had Tungate in your probable team. Tungate averaged 6.05 in the top league last year. He rides next year on an average of 9.03. Yet 6.05 x 1.4 is 8.47.

 

On paper, Tungate on 9.03 is a worse signing than Doyle.

[poolebolton 464]

Any news coming from Somerset anytime soon???

[Buttons 370]

They usually hold a get together when they announce the team or most of them...watch this space, anytime now I would imagine

[SCB 0]

 

What I meant was that, in theory, everybody is going to drop their averages.

In theory yeah. But in practice only anyone over 12 is guaranteed to drop.

 

As soon as you sign anyone on over 12 you're throwing points away. It's madness. You're 100% totally guaranteeing lost points.

 

Tungate and Grajczonek may look poor value but there is at least some change (admittedly slim) of them maintaining their average.

 

I wouldn't go near anyone over 11 personally.

[Grachan 7,362]

In theory yeah. But in practice only anyone over 12 is guaranteed to drop.

As soon as you sign anyone on over 12 you're throwing points away. It's madness. You're 100% totally guaranteeing lost points.

Tungate and Grajczonek may look poor value but there is at least some change (admittedly slim) of them maintaining their average.

I wouldn't go near anyone over 11 personally.

Admittedly you lose that possibility, but you have to weigh up the risk with others and averages will fall. It's inevitable in a 50 point league.

 

Having Doyle may well work against Swindon in terms of team strength overall, but personally I'm relieved he is staying.

 

I wish Poole had hung on to Holder too. I understand why they never but I hope he stays in the league. We need to keep these riders if we can. Hopefully, long term, Swindon will benefit from this in Doyle getting a real average for next year (2018). I won't hold my breath though.

Edited November 14, 2016 by grachan

[Starman2006 2,354]

Admittedly you lose that possibility, but you have to weigh up the risk with others and averages will fall. It's inevitable in a 50 point league.

 

Having Doyle may well work against Swindon in terms of team strength overall, but personally I'm relieved he is staying.

 

I wish Poole had hung on to Holder too. I understand why they never but I hope he stays in the league. We need to keep these riders if we can. Hopefully, long term, Swindon will benefit from this in Doyle getting a real average for next year. I won't hold my breath though.

 

Admittedly you lose that possibility, but you have to weigh up the risk with others and averages will fall. It's inevitable in a 50 point league.

 

Having Doyle may well work against Swindon in terms of team strength overall, but personally I'm relieved he is staying.

 

I wish Poole had hung on to Holder too. I understand why they never but I hope he stays in the league. We need to keep these riders if we can. Hopefully, long term, Swindon will benefit from this in Doyle getting a real average for next year. I won't hold my breath though.

I would be suprised if Chris didn't get offers from clubs. I think he will..

[Crazy robin 2,963]

 

I would be suprised if Chris didn't get offers from clubs. I think he will..

I hope he does as British speedway still needs the top stars or if not the next thing will have to be a North & a South league.

[coomie 191]

They usually hold a get together when they announce the team or most of them...watch this space, anytime now I would imagine

normaly wait until all signed,last few years that's after all the other teams have been named so it's normally what's left unnamed are in the team!

[orderly 174]

As an example, you had Tungate in your probable team. Tungate averaged 6.05 in the top league last year. He rides next year on an average of 9.03. Yet 6.05 x 1.4 is 8.47.

 

On paper, Tungate on 9.03 is a worse signing than Doyle.

I believe that the 1.4 adjustment only applies to riders that rode full time in the 2016 elite league therefore Tungate will ride on his premier league average of 9.03

[waiheke1 4,295]

I believe that the 1.4 adjustment only applies to riders that rode full time in the 2016 elite league therefore Tungate will ride on his premier league average of 9.03

Yes. Grachans point was that he is effectively on a 1.5 conversion so worse value than Doyle. I agree - 85% of riders are worse value than Doyle imo.

And that is with tungate also having a deflated average due to spells at 2nd string and reserve

In theory yeah. But in practice only anyone over 12 is guaranteed to drop.

 

As soon as you sign anyone on over 12 you're throwing points away. It's madness. You're 100% totally guaranteeing lost points.

 

Tungate and Grajczonek may look poor value but there is at least some change (admittedly slim) of them maintaining their average.

 

I wouldn't go near anyone over 11 personally.

And I still disagree with this.

If I had free reign to put together whichever 7 riders I wanted, then agree I would not pick a 12+ rider (I'd spearhead with something like Lindgren, harris,woffy/masters). But reality is noone-maybe poole?- csn choose onlybtheir preferred 7 riders, and fsct is that 85% of riders will drop, so it's about selecting those that offer best value. Riders who ride exclusively as hl in the EL, or riders whose pl average is less than 1.4 times their EL average represent best value.

So Doyle is much better value than josh g or tungate. Actually josh g isn't terrible value when I used your weighted averages (presume he must have ridden predominantly as a hl) but tungate certainly is.

Would rather go with a rider who is certain to drop 15% than a rider who will probably drop 30%.

Edited November 15, 2016 by waihekeaces1

[SomersetBlue 212]

Just a thought for number 1:

 

What average would Maciej Janowski be? Sure he has been to the ota a few times?