Reassessed Averages

[MattK 3,447]

So Wolves suffered a whole season yet it would be 'fair' to have to have his REAL average altered because it isn't fair to other teams??? Not fair at all.

Wolves had to suffer 2 seasons because the world champion rode poor and achieved a poor average because of it. So its only fitting the team who suffered that year was able to take advantage of it.

 

Woffinden doesn't have a real average, that's the point. The 2017 season was significantly weakened compared to previous years, meaning the average of any rider who didn't ride in 2017 is null and void.

[ouch 1,191]

That was a Stevebrum post from back when Wolves signed Tai to win the league.

 

It interesting to compare to current postings.

[DC2 11,150]

The 2017 season was significantly weakened compared to previous years.....

Was it? It didn’t seem any weaker than any year since the draft reserves were introduced and going further back Adams and Crump regularly exceeded a 10 point average while this season Doyle got only 9.67.

[SCB 0]

Was it? It didn’t seem any weaker than any year since the draft reserves were introduced and going further back Adams and Crump regularly exceeded a 10 point average while this season Doyle got only 9.67.

Yes it was. It was 20% weaker than it was at the end of the year before. Thats the joy of averages, you can work these things out quite easily.

[Gavan 5,049]

 

Woffinden doesn't have a real average, that's the point. The 2017 season was significantly weakened compared to previous years, meaning the average of any rider who didn't ride in 2017 is null and void.

I agree

 

Therefore someone like Woryna should be reassessed.

 

Cant be right that only a select few should be reassessed surely

 

One team loses out in team building because they have Woffinden and another team can gain by having Woryna!!! Only in speedway

[stevebrum 6,821]

That was a Stevebrum post from back when Wolves signed Tai to win the league.

It interesting to compare to current postings.

 

do you mean me saying that I agree Tai and other riders should be reassessed for fairness and clarity??

you can't change the rules mid season but you can make the rules 'fair for all' to start a new season.

It's interesting that you interpret it as bias towards my own club, which it's clear it isn't.

 

Woffinden doesn't have a real average, that's the point. The 2017 season was significantly weakened compared to previous years, meaning the average of any rider who didn't ride in 2017 is null and void.

Woffy has as valid an average of any rider. The year that Tai and all the other top boys got low averages was due to the race format. Making their averages falsely low. I can see it's only fair that riders who didn't ride here in 2017 (under the regular race format) have an outdated average so I think it's fair to give them a 'new' realistic average. It's just whether 9 is a 'fair' assessment.

Of course I agree that any rider who didn't ride here in 2017 therefore has an outdated average. Reassess one, reassess all who weren't here in 2017. It's just the assessment of the new average that needs clarity.

[DC2 11,150]

Yes it was. It was 20% weaker than it was at the end of the year before. Thats the joy of averages, you can work these things out quite easily.

Could you explain that?

[SCB 0]

Could you explain that?

50 point limit was ELx1.4 so that was 35ish EL points. Average team the year before was 42 so 35/42 is 0.83. So 83% which is about 20% when rounded as I posted above.

[DC2 11,150]

 

50 divided by 1.4 is 35.71, divided by 42 makes 85%.

 

On this statistical basis you can argue that the league has been reduced in quality every year that the team building limit is less than 42, but in reality I wonder if this is the case.

[Grachan 7,362]

50 divided by 1.4 is 35.71, divided by 42 makes 85%.

 

On this statistical basis you can argue that the league has been reduced in quality every year that the team building limit is less than 42, but in reality I wonder if this is the case.

 

It has been.

 

It's been regularly weakened since 2008 (I think) when they did a 39.95 points limit. The 2017 league was weakened by a great deal. This year it is of similar strength to last year.

[DC2 11,150]

 

I think those statistics might prove your point if you were dealing with an inanimate object, but I’m not sure it does with human beings, being riders whose form and personal life ebbs and flows and declines or improves.

[Grachan 7,362]

I think those statistics might prove your point if you were dealing with an inanimate object, but I’m not sure it does with human beings, being riders whose form and personal life ebbs and flows and declines or improves.

 

True. It's statistical rather than a perfect scenario, but it's pretty much true and it's certainly the intent too.

 

If a league finished with an average strength of 42, then making the following year start at 35.71 they are weakening the product.

[szkocjasid 3,023]

And we now get a 1.3 multiplier between the leagues instead of this year’s 1.2 and previous years’ 1.4.

 

The averages for Woryna and Holder need adjusting in the interests of fairness.

I think 1.3 is a fairer multiplier between the leagues! Is that happening though?

Straightforward really.

 

Step 1: Get a data set of riders with averages in both leagues.

 

Step 2: do linear regression to come up with a best fit.

 

Step 3: apply formula to riders whose averages you wish to assess.

That's far too sensible for Speedway! I've always thought that is how they should work out the conversions for Premier / Elite or now Championship / Premiership!

I remember that last time we did grading, Lindback (Poole) was low and Harris (Coventry) was high, even though they were the same.

Any system we adopt will not work satisfactorily as some of the people involved are bent.

 

£££££ makes points, or hollow championships.

I also remember Loram was the weakest grade 1 & Pedersen was the strongest grade 2, even though they were the same standard!

[Pirate Rich 40]

Surely riders averages will always be distorted unless the team building limit is kept to 45 each year?

[dontforgetthefueltapsbruv 10,706]

Surely riders averages will always be distorted unless the team building limit is kept to 45 each year?

Here we go again! 😆