Jump to content
British Speedway Forum
Sign in to follow this  
arnieg

Assessed Averages

Recommended Posts

In a couple of threads I suggested that an easy way to produce assessed averages would be to

I could do it in a couple of hours using data already in existence

I'd use dolgin's rankings, starting by doing linear regression on all those riders who have 2017 British averages. That would give a formula that would provide an average for every rider. ( I would reduce the average of Americans by 10% because I think dolgin's methodology over-rates them).

And finally I would round to the nearest half point).

And I would use a 1.25 multiplier to go from PL to CL.

 

I have now done it (and it took less than two hours)

I used Dolgin's rankings at 30 September (topped by Tai Woffinden on 4701 ranking points and end of season PL GSA averages for all riders (61) with a PL GSA achieved in 2017 over 3.00.

 

The regression formula came out as:

Formula:     Assessed Average   =   (ranking points – 1118)

                                 ---------------------------------

                                          347.3

 

Here's the scatter graph:

image.thumb.png.e565092c373b73caa14053cc12eda6f0.png

And the list of assessed riders (note it includes anyone without a PL or CL GSA achieved in 2017 (so it includes riders like Stefan Nielsen, Tobias Busch and Davey Watt)

And a list of assessments:

 

10.5

Woffinden

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

Zmarzlik

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9.5

Zagar

Dudek

Hancock

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

Laguta

Laguta

Pawlicki

Pawlicki

Sayfutdinov

Vaculik

Pedersen

 

 

8.5

Janowski

Kolodziej

hampel

Iversen

Milik

Wozniak

Jonsson

 

 

8

Lindback

Drabik

Kildemand

Sundstrom

Lebedevs

Holta

 

 

 

7.5

Jepsen Jensen

Miedzinski

Protasiewicz

Michelsen

Ljung

Woryna

Bech

Zengota

 

7

Smektala

Okoniewski

Thomsen

Crump

Jamrog

Smolinski

Mat Szczepaniak

Mroczka

Korneliussen

6.5

Janniro

Jedrzejak

K Gomolski

Fajfer

Wolbert

Bogdanovs

Karpov

Buczkowski

Przedpelski

6.5

Ulamek

Czaja

D Davidsson

Kosciuch

P Aspgren

Pieszczek

F Jakobsen

Bach

 

6

Walasek

Kudryashov

J Davidsson

Pavlic

Lampart

B Pedersen

Jablonski

Krcmar

Jeleniewski

6

Covatti

Puodzuks

KK Hansen

Lyager

P Karlsson

 

 

 

 

5.5

M Ruml

Franc

M Nowak

Berntzon

Berge

Gizatulin

Gala

Kroner

Gafurov

5.5

D Balinski

Miskowiak

Kubera

Kulakov

Miesiac

Tarasenko

 

 

 

5

Watt

K Jablonski

Brzozowski

Karczmarz

Kus

Koza

C Vissing

J Andersson

Eklof

5

Polis

Palovaara

Cyfer

R Jensen

Bober

Hjelmland

Borodulin

 

 

4.5

Fisher

J Jorgensen

Mazur

Hartel

Busk Jakobsen

M B Andersen

K Andersen

Kostigovs

Jeppesen

4.5

J Kling

Dolny

Busch

Chugunov

Thornblom

Stachyra

Ajtner Gollob

A Gomolski

Nissen

4.5

Adamczewski

Borowicz

Drodz

T Sorensen

Jedrzewski

Skornicki

Monberg

Kaczmarek

 

4.5

Risager

Tabaka

Stichauer

Kuciapa

K Lykke

 

 

 

 

4

Lindman

Melnichuk

Grobauer

Mads Hansen

Z Holub

St Nielsen

S Burza

Michalovs

L Sowka

4

Fox

Becker

Manzares

B Bast

Nicol

Novratil

Thaysen

Alden

M Tresarrieu

4

Chmiel

Castagna

Melgren

Sogaard

Gruchalski

Chalov

Fierlej

R Kling

P Hansen

4

Adamczak

Logachev

F Eriksson

Fienhage

Tornqvist

V Bergstrom

Mag Karlsson

suchanek

Puszakowski

4

Dilger

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good job. It must have taken you ages to format that table.

Out of interest, what assessed averages do riders with a 2017 CMA come out at? That would be an good way to calibrate the equation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Excellent effort arnieg

Such a shame the BSPA cant adopt this or something similar to remove the dubious thoughts many inevitably have with the current arrangements

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Based on Arnie's  treatise, the three foreign newcomers  announced for the CL would appear to be re-assessed as:-

  Andersson (Edinburgh)  5 x 1.25 = 6.25, LIndman (Berwick)  4 x 1.25 = 5.00, & Haertel (Ipswich) 5.5 x 1.25 = 5.63

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, Skidder1 said:

Any truth in the whisper that the 9 point GP assessment is being dropped??

It would be ludicrous to change the assessment now that some teams have signed riders so yes, it probably is true.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://dlvr.it/Q8m8QT

So there is now a definitive list of in excess of 260 riders worldwide that have their 2018 averages set in black and white

Lets see it then BSPA.......

Edited by dontforgetthefueltapsbruv
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

excellent work arnieg 

In fairness to the bspa it seems making gp riders a 9 actualy makes sense :o

whereas allowing woryna on a 4.5 is as ludicrous as many of us have been saying

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So it seems that the rumoured re-assessment of certain assessed riders has indeed been re-assessed. The original 'independent' assessment has been assessed as being wrongly assessed so has been re-assessed for the coming season.

I expect to see an announcement about the re-assessed assessments fairly soon.  In fact I would assess that it will happen sometime before March - although I may well have to re-assess my assessment.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

Sign in to follow this  

×