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arnieg

Assessed Averages

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In a couple of threads I suggested that an easy way to produce assessed averages would be to

I could do it in a couple of hours using data already in existence

I'd use dolgin's rankings, starting by doing linear regression on all those riders who have 2017 British averages. That would give a formula that would provide an average for every rider. ( I would reduce the average of Americans by 10% because I think dolgin's methodology over-rates them).

And finally I would round to the nearest half point).

And I would use a 1.25 multiplier to go from PL to CL.

 

I have now done it (and it took less than two hours)

I used Dolgin's rankings at 30 September (topped by Tai Woffinden on 4701 ranking points and end of season PL GSA averages for all riders (61) with a PL GSA achieved in 2017 over 3.00.

 

The regression formula came out as:

Formula:     Assessed Average   =   (ranking points – 1118)

                                 ---------------------------------

                                          347.3

 

Here's the scatter graph:

image.thumb.png.e565092c373b73caa14053cc12eda6f0.png

And the list of assessed riders (note it includes anyone without a PL or CL GSA achieved in 2017 (so it includes riders like Stefan Nielsen, Tobias Busch and Davey Watt)

And a list of assessments:

 

10.5

Woffinden

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

Zmarzlik

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9.5

Zagar

Dudek

Hancock

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

Laguta

Laguta

Pawlicki

Pawlicki

Sayfutdinov

Vaculik

Pedersen

 

 

8.5

Janowski

Kolodziej

hampel

Iversen

Milik

Wozniak

Jonsson

 

 

8

Lindback

Drabik

Kildemand

Sundstrom

Lebedevs

Holta

 

 

 

7.5

Jepsen Jensen

Miedzinski

Protasiewicz

Michelsen

Ljung

Woryna

Bech

Zengota

 

7

Smektala

Okoniewski

Thomsen

Crump

Jamrog

Smolinski

Mat Szczepaniak

Mroczka

Korneliussen

6.5

Janniro

Jedrzejak

K Gomolski

Fajfer

Wolbert

Bogdanovs

Karpov

Buczkowski

Przedpelski

6.5

Ulamek

Czaja

D Davidsson

Kosciuch

P Aspgren

Pieszczek

F Jakobsen

Bach

 

6

Walasek

Kudryashov

J Davidsson

Pavlic

Lampart

B Pedersen

Jablonski

Krcmar

Jeleniewski

6

Covatti

Puodzuks

KK Hansen

Lyager

P Karlsson

 

 

 

 

5.5

M Ruml

Franc

M Nowak

Berntzon

Berge

Gizatulin

Gala

Kroner

Gafurov

5.5

D Balinski

Miskowiak

Kubera

Kulakov

Miesiac

Tarasenko

 

 

 

5

Watt

K Jablonski

Brzozowski

Karczmarz

Kus

Koza

C Vissing

J Andersson

Eklof

5

Polis

Palovaara

Cyfer

R Jensen

Bober

Hjelmland

Borodulin

 

 

4.5

Fisher

J Jorgensen

Mazur

Hartel

Busk Jakobsen

M B Andersen

K Andersen

Kostigovs

Jeppesen

4.5

J Kling

Dolny

Busch

Chugunov

Thornblom

Stachyra

Ajtner Gollob

A Gomolski

Nissen

4.5

Adamczewski

Borowicz

Drodz

T Sorensen

Jedrzewski

Skornicki

Monberg

Kaczmarek

 

4.5

Risager

Tabaka

Stichauer

Kuciapa

K Lykke

 

 

 

 

4

Lindman

Melnichuk

Grobauer

Mads Hansen

Z Holub

St Nielsen

S Burza

Michalovs

L Sowka

4

Fox

Becker

Manzares

B Bast

Nicol

Novratil

Thaysen

Alden

M Tresarrieu

4

Chmiel

Castagna

Melgren

Sogaard

Gruchalski

Chalov

Fierlej

R Kling

P Hansen

4

Adamczak

Logachev

F Eriksson

Fienhage

Tornqvist

V Bergstrom

Mag Karlsson

suchanek

Puszakowski

4

Dilger

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Good job. It must have taken you ages to format that table.

Out of interest, what assessed averages do riders with a 2017 CMA come out at? That would be an good way to calibrate the equation.

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That table makes a lot of sense, good job.

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Excellent effort arnieg

Such a shame the BSPA cant adopt this or something similar to remove the dubious thoughts many inevitably have with the current arrangements

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Based on Arnie's  treatise, the three foreign newcomers  announced for the CL would appear to be re-assessed as:-

  Andersson (Edinburgh)  5 x 1.25 = 6.25, LIndman (Berwick)  4 x 1.25 = 5.00, & Haertel (Ipswich) 5.5 x 1.25 = 5.63

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Any truth in the whisper that the 9 point GP assessment is being dropped??

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52 minutes ago, Skidder1 said:

Any truth in the whisper that the 9 point GP assessment is being dropped??

It would be ludicrous to change the assessment now that some teams have signed riders so yes, it probably is true.

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http://dlvr.it/Q8m8QT

So there is now a definitive list of in excess of 260 riders worldwide that have their 2018 averages set in black and white

Lets see it then BSPA.......

Edited by dontforgetthefueltapsbruv
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excellent work arnieg 

In fairness to the bspa it seems making gp riders a 9 actualy makes sense :o

whereas allowing woryna on a 4.5 is as ludicrous as many of us have been saying

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So it seems that the rumoured re-assessment of certain assessed riders has indeed been re-assessed. The original 'independent' assessment has been assessed as being wrongly assessed so has been re-assessed for the coming season.

I expect to see an announcement about the re-assessed assessments fairly soon.  In fact I would assess that it will happen sometime before March - although I may well have to re-assess my assessment.

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