2018 Premiership Predictions

[Mattfordfan 286]

6 hours ago, rebelwonderkid said:

You really don't know a lot about Speedway do you. 

I admire your loyalty to Somerset I really do but away from home apart from Doyle. Who would score big points and win Heats regularly? There isn't anyone. 

1 hour ago, rebelwonderkid said:

In terms of calling Somerset a one man team. He is either extremely biased or doesn't know anything speedway. 

Without Doyle we picked up victories at Belle Vue, King's Lynn and Poole last season and only lost by 6 at Leicester. We have essentially got twice the rider of Grajczonek in Doyle and vastly improving riders in Allen, Holder and BWD. Then an ever improving Wrighty and Lawson put in some decent scores too. In what way is that a one man team? Add in the fact 5 track specialists and Holder who rides the track well. That doesn't seem a one man team to me. 

Not biased at all. 

Just telling you the truth that's all. Wright or Lawson aren't going to score 9 points a meeting on the road every week. Doyle needs back up like he did last year in Morris.

 

 

[Daniel Smith 5,657]

16 hours ago, rebelwonderkid said:

In terms of calling Somerset a one man team. He is either extremely biased or doesn't know anything speedway. 

Without Doyle we picked up victories at Belle Vue, King's Lynn and Poole last season and only lost by 6 at Leicester. We have essentially got twice the rider of Grajczonek in Doyle and vastly improving riders in Allen, Holder and BWD. Then an ever improving Wrighty and Lawson put in some decent scores too. In what way is that a one man team? Add in the fact 5 track specialists and Holder who rides the track well. That doesn't seem a one man team to me. 

Like my team King's Lynn you have a great No1. After that heat winners are hard to come by. Even worse than that is heat advantages.

Both of our clubs have failed to put together teams that look competitive throughout. 

[Bald Bloke 3,282]

On ‎24‎/‎02‎/‎2018 at 8:39 PM, rebelwonderkid said:

n terms of calling Somerset a one man team. He is either extremely biased or doesn't know anything speedway. 

Without Doyle we picked up victories at Belle Vue, King's Lynn and Poole last season and only lost by 6 at Leicester. We have essentially got twice the rider of Grajczonek in Doyle and vastly improving riders in Allen, Holder and BWD. Then an ever improving Wrighty and Lawson put in some decent scores too. In what way is that a one man team? Add in the fact 5 track specialists and Holder who rides the track well. That doesn't seem a one man team to me. 

Hope you keep Holder  happy 

Edited February 25, 2018 by Bald Bloke

[g13webb 4,254]

					Analysis of Teams Riders Positions
																										KEY
Rider No.		BelleVue			Kings Lynn			Leicester			Poole			Rye House			Somerset			Swindon			Wolves			1. Best
No 1  HL		Craig Cook			Niels K Iversen			Mart Vaculik			Brad Kurtz			Chris Harris			Jason Doyle			Nick Morris			Jab Torsell			2
Average		8.45     4			9.04     2			8.00     3			8.08     8			7.63    7			9.69    1			8.87     6			8.64    5
No 2  HL		Max Friske			Rob Lambert			HanAndersen			JosGrajczonk			Scot Nicolls			Charl Wright			TroyBatchelor			Sam Masters			3
Average		7'39     2			7.38    5			7.75    1			7.34     6			7.48     7			6.69    8			7.63     3			7.92     4
No 3  HL		Stev Worrall			Th Jorgensen			Danny King			LinSundstrom			KrzKaspersak			Rich Lawson			Dav Bellego			Rory Schlein			4
Average		6,77     5			5.93   6			6.66    4			7.22    1			6.86      2			6.43     7			7.37     8			7.72     3
No4  S/S		Roh Tungate			Ty Procter			Krz Pieszczek			Chris Holder			Eddy Kennett			Jack Holder			Tob Musielak			Kyle Howarth			5
Average		6.18     3			5.50    7			6.50    4			7.16    1			6.39     8			5.82     5			7.37      2			6.64    6
No 5 S/S		Dam Drozdz			Lewis Rose			Josh Bates			Kasp Woryna			Ben Barker			Jake Allen			Adam Ellis			Cam Heeps			6
Average		5.00      8			5.25    4			5.52    5			4.65    1			6.00     6			5.07     3			5.46     2			5.25    7
No 6  Res		Dan Bewley			Lewis kerr			Kyle Newman			Mat Szczpani			Stuart Robson			Brad Wil Dean			Zach Wajknec			Ash Morris			7
Average		4,71    2			5.06     4			4.86   7			4.54    1			5.72     3			4.67    5			3.21     6			3.75      8
No 7  Res		Jye Etheridge			Kas Andersen			James Sargent			James Shane			Max Clegg			Jon Jepersen			Mich Davey			Nat Greaves			8. Worse
Average		2.00      6			4.00     3			2,56    5			2.95    2			2.00     7			4.00      4			2.00     8			2.54    1
Positional Totals		30			31			29			20			40			33			35			34

[g13webb 4,254]

Freezing cold outside,  not much on the tele, and in the quietness of a warm office,  I wasted the available time to  take a structure analysis of each of this year’s teams competing in the Premier League  ( a sad existence really.)

Looking at the graph above, I have placed all the riders in the position their CMA indicated, knowing full well they will change frequently, but we need a starting point.  I have then compared them to those in equal positions and rated them 1 to 8, the best to the worse, to form some sort of comparison between the riders and the teams…   Of cause, opinions will vary, and my view would bring a different outcome to others but, having a structure approach, backed by some 50 years of spectating, I’ve tried to be fair in my assessments, where favourites are few and far between.

Looking along the first row of No1 HL Riders, I have placed Doyle as the best, followed by Niels, Vaculik and Cook.  I have placed Kurtz and Harris as the worse, but it could have gone either way, but this was my way to evaluate the strength of each team starting out.   I repeated this process through each of the remaining team positions to finally arrive at the point of where it brings all the thoughts into comparison.

Looking at the results bring together some amazing information, that I find very interesting.  Some teams seem to have been perceived better than they should, and others have hidden their obvious strengths pretty well.   We need to forget about Poole as they are way and above better than any other team. Their position total of only 20 illustrates this.   The fact most other teams are separated by just a few points indicates Poole’s strength are streets ahead of the rest.….

The biggest surprise to me was how Lynn stacked up.  I purposely guarded against any favouritism and feel any assessment was rightly placed.  In my original prediction, (on Page 6) I placed them nearer the bottom, thinking they had too much to do. Now when looking at other teams in similar comparison, then yes, they could achieve a PO position.  It’s interesting to note, that the majority of teams are only a few points apart.  A point that proves most of them will be competitive and in with a shout.  The one team that surprised me was Rye House.  On 40 pts they came in some way adrift of the rest.  What wasn’t taken into consideration was their massive advantage their own track provides, and this will have a big bearing on overall results.   Looking at their riders, I still believe their team is one of the weakest, but that home advantage will be a big leveller against better sides…

So in conclusion,  Poole seem to be on a different planet from the rest,  Leicester, Belle Vue, KingsLynn, Swindon, Wolves and Somerset are all separated by only a point, with Rye House having a bit to make up.   Be interesting to see how it all pans out..

[hyderd 1,216]

To confusing,

[Najjer 2,888]

55 minutes ago, hyderd said:

To confusing,

Makes perfect sense to me, and quite interesting to see actually. It's no surprise Poole clearly start as favourites.

[Najjer 2,888]

On 24/02/2018 at 5:36 PM, Bagpuss said:

There's not an awful lot in there to be disagreed with really, one or two little things but he makes many good points. The top three look way ahead if the rest but after that it's fairly tight.

I'd agree with that too. Somerset has without doubt been built to hold their own at home, which is something we struggled to do at times last season and lost a few meetings in the crucial final heats. I seem to remember we lost to Kings Lynn, Swindon and Wolves early doors last year by a few points simply because we didn't have a real no.1. Hopefully with Doyle in the team that should now be sorted. I've no doubt we will get murdered at a few places away from home mind. Who knows what the young Dane will do too, I know literally nothing about him so he could be good, he could be shocking.

 

[B.V 72 1,054]

4 hours ago, g13webb said:

Freezing cold outside,  not much on the tele, and in the quietness of a warm office,  I wasted the available time to  take a structure analysis of each of this year’s teams competing in the Premier League  ( a sad existence really.)

Looking at the graph above, I have placed all the riders in the position their CMA indicated, knowing full well they will change frequently, but we need a starting point.  I have then compared them to those in equal positions and rated them 1 to 8, the best to the worse, to form some sort of comparison between the riders and the teams…   Of cause, opinions will vary, and my view would bring a different outcome to others but, having a structure approach, backed by some 50 years of spectating, I’ve tried to be fair in my assessments, where favourites are few and far between.

Looking along the first row of No1 HL Riders, I have placed Doyle as the best, followed by Niels, Vaculik and Cook.  I have placed Kurtz and Harris as the worse, but it could have gone either way, but this was my way to evaluate the strength of each team starting out.   I repeated this process through each of the remaining team positions to finally arrive at the point of where it brings all the thoughts into comparison.

Looking at the results bring together some amazing information, that I find very interesting.  Some teams seem to have been perceived better than they should, and others have hidden their obvious strengths pretty well.   We need to forget about Poole as they are way and above better than any other team. Their position total of only 20 illustrates this.   The fact most other teams are separated by just a few points indicates Poole’s strength are streets ahead of the rest.….

The biggest surprise to me was how Lynn stacked up.  I purposely guarded against any favouritism and feel any assessment was rightly placed.  In my original prediction, (on Page 6) I placed them nearer the bottom, thinking they had too much to do. Now when looking at other teams in similar comparison, then yes, they could achieve a PO position.  It’s interesting to note, that the majority of teams are only a few points apart.  A point that proves most of them will be competitive and in with a shout.  The one team that surprised me was Rye House.  On 40 pts they came in some way adrift of the rest.  What wasn’t taken into consideration was their massive advantage their own track provides, and this will have a big bearing on overall results.   Looking at their riders, I still believe their team is one of the weakest, but that home advantage will be a big leveller against better sides…

So in conclusion,  Poole seem to be on a different planet from the rest,  Leicester, Belle Vue, KingsLynn, Swindon, Wolves and Somerset are all separated by only a point, with Rye House having a bit to make up.   Be interesting to see how it all pans out..

Which ever way you work it out Poole on paper are a lot stronger than the rest.Mostly down to the fact that the BSPA have allowed old out off date averages to be used for much improved riders.

This is great for Poole and their fans and well done mr Ford for putting this team together all within this years rules.

But the problem for the rest of us is that every other team is quite evenly matched and  at this point without Poole it would be hard to pick a winner.So with the BSPA allowing the out of date averages it has in my opinion spoilt what should have been the most evenly matched league in years.So well done again the BSPA you have again shot yourselves in the foot because if most teams later on in the season were still in with a shot of the play offs and winning the league a lot more supporters would turn up to support there team every week.Runaway teams are good for their own supporters but other clubs support will drop off as soon as they know they have no chance of winning sod all.

All we can hope is that like last year Poole do not perform as well on the track as their team on paper says they should and evens things up.

Edited February 26, 2018 by B.V 72

[poole keith 909]

excellent piece of work webb,obviously there will some differences of opinion but overall very good interpretation  of relative team strengths.also difficult to argue against bv72s post above

[GAH 409]

5 minutes ago, poole keith said:

excellent piece of work webb,obviously there will some differences of opinion but overall very good interpretation  of relative team strengths.also difficult to argue against bv72s post above

poole will not win the league !! watch this space !!

[1 valve 558]

2 hours ago, B.V 72 said:

 with the BSPA allowing the out of date averages it has in my opinion spoilt what should have been the most evenly matched league in years.

The 2018 season may turn out not to be as one sided as we all think it could be. In terms of delivering improved results on their opening averages the riders of Poole have still got to "do it" and this will be easier said than done.

Taking the CMA for each rider and ranking the riders accordingly across each position and totally ignoring "ringers & personal opinion" then clearly Poole have a lot to do to improve and live up to expectations. as the ranking of teams based on 1v1 2v2 3v3 etc looks like this:

1. Wolves
2. Leicester
3. Rye House
4. Kings Lynn
5. Swindon
6. Poole
7. Somerset
8. Belle Vue.

To be clear I am not saying this is how the league will finish but it does show the type of "swing" required (say) by Belle Vue and Poole to make the play offs whilst as an example, a team such as Rye House with a  specialist track and experienced heads for away meetings could be tough to turn over.

Personally in terms of Poole I am not convinced C Holder will come good as some think (I hope he does cuz I liked him when he was fully stoked and winning Gp's) and the Poles have to learn a few away tracks. There is plenty for the other teams to have a go at and give us the 2018 season we all want..great racing and hard to predict meetings with a few surprises thrown in for good measure.

A dry sunny summer would be good too!

Edited February 26, 2018 by 1 valve

[Steve Shovlar 10,439]

31 minutes ago, geoff58 said:

poole will not win the league !! watch this space !!

I am watching but nothing happened in the last 10 mins. Odds in your favour when all teams start equal and injuries can occur. But I believe Poole will win it this year baring any injuries.

As for the analysis, interesting opinion.

Edited February 26, 2018 by Steve Shovlar

[GAH 409]

28 minutes ago, Steve Shovlar said:

I am watching but nothing happened in the last 10 mins. Odds in your favour when all teams start equal and injuries can occur. But I believe Poole will win it this year baring any injuries.

As for the analysis, interesting opinion.

according to the odds you are the boomakers favourite  advantage you  me thinks ??? lol  just like last season 

[SomersetBlue 212]

I still stick to what I say and that is that Somerset look strong people may think it's blind loyalty but I think out of everyone we have the most important from top to bottom. Allen, Holder and BWD should improve their averages and Wright and Lawson are both heat leaders at home, if at least one of them can replicate that away then I really don't see that being a bad side. 

Belle Vue have a good reserve partnership but you can't say that top 5 is as good as last season, Cook is no where near the level of Bjerre personally and Fricke has a lot riding on him. 

King's Lynn actually look decent to me with a top heat leader double act and a strong reserve all they need is a solid middle order which I think they have. 

Leicester look good but it remains to be seen how Vaculik and Pieszczek get on they are the key.

Poole look the strongest and I don't blame them for working with the tools given to them but they do have riders on outdated averages which has given them an advantage, i'm sure any team would have done the same though.

Rye House have gone for strength in depth and will be decent at home with Kennett and Barker basically third heat leaders around Hoddesdon but away will be their problem. 

Swindon will obviously miss Doyle as Morris is not to his level but Musielak and Batchelor will be solid scorers Bellego is inconsistent and the reserves relies on Wajtknechts improvement. 

Wolves like Rye will be tricky at home as Thorsell will be an adequate no. 1 but away they will face trouble but I don't think it's a really bad side with Masters, Schlien and Howarth being decent plus Heeps was good for the Rebels. Greaves too showed improvement in himself from a rider I never really rated.