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False dawn


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Are you good at predicting races? Are you sure? Are you any better than anyone else?

This is a measurable skill. It is quantifiable. And you can have a whole bunch of fun along the way. Believe me, I know……


I invented this little game and having tested it for a while I thought there might be a few folks out there that would get the same enjoyment from it as I have.

For what it’s worth, I offer this to all my speedway friends.




A game of skill for one or more players.

The short version of the rules:


1. The outcome of a speedway race is predicted.

2. The result of the race is compared with the prediction.

3. Each race earns a score from 0 to 8, 0 being the best.

4. Points are totalled for a meeting. The player with the lowest score wins.




Slightly longer version:


1. Predict all four riders in the order you think they will finish e.g. RWBY

2. Let’s say the result is WBRY.

3. To calculate the heat score, you compare each rider’s finishing position with his predicted position. So red came 3rd but was predicted 1st. You got him 2 places out of position thus scoring you 2 points. White scores 1, blue scores you 1 and yellow was right, so scoring you a zero. Add them all up and your heat score is 4. [that is much harder to explain than to actually calculate]. Obviously if you get all four riders correct you score a 0 (not rare but harder than you’d think).

4. As a guide, over say 15 heats, an average of around 3 points per heat is not bad. This can be a great game to play against others but be careful, it can get very competitive. Playing on your own can be fun just to see how low a score you can get.


Supplementary regulations:

5. All predictions must be made prior to tapes up.

6. Exclusions, riders going off 15m, engine failures etc. are just bad luck. You’re not allowed to make a new prediction. The exception to this rule is if the line up in a rerun is different for any reason e.g. a reserve replacement after a tape exclusion or for a rider eligible to take part who cannot do so due to injury. In these circumstances a new prediction is permitted

7. Where multiple riders fail to finish a race e.g. 2 engine failures, the first one to stop is deemed to have come last, the second one to stop is deemed to have come 3rd etc. If you can’t work out the finishing order this way, you’ll have to agree a result amongst the competitors.

8. To settle a draw for the overall meeting competition you might like to have a side bet on the overall meeting result e.g. 50-40 for a league meeting.


Sound simple? Well it is. But you might find it more challenging to achieve a good score than you first think.


Some fun facts:

There are 24 possible predictions/outcomes for a 4 man race.

Normal races scores are 0,2,4,6 and 8.

Odd scores are only possible if there is a dead heat.

If you predicted at random, over a large number of heats, mathematically you would expect an overall average of 5 points per heat.

An average of 3 points per heats, at team meetings, is a good guide. At individual meetings (GPs etc.) good luck. An average over 4 is not off the wall. Any meeting for which you get under 2.5 points a heat is cheating!

The nasty 5-1: You predict a 5-1 say RBWY and the result is BRYW. Still a 5-1 but you score a 4.

The classic 8: You predict RBWY and the result is YWBR. There are 2 other ways of scoring 8.

The hurtful 6: Your predicted winner has an engine failure. That’s a minimum of a 6. It could be an 8 depending on the other riders.

The accidental 0. Doesn’t exist. A perfect score is always down to skill eh?

Three consecutive 0’s. The drinks are on you. You might think this is a bit of an exaggeration but this is the Predictaheat “hole in one”.

Three consecutive 8’s. This might not be the game for you. To be honest I have “achieved” 2 8's and a 6 in 3 races on occasion but the perfect 24 has alluded me.


Because this is a scoring game, you can collect lots of data and generate your own statistics, calculated match averages, record low scores, record high scores, even National competitions if you can trust one another. I leave it your imagination.


Good luck people and let me know what you think.

Simple scorechart enclosed, although you can write your predictions on your programme, a bit of paper or the back of a fag packet.

Predictaheat Scorechart.pdf

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Happy Memories of playing this for many years with Kath, Graham, you and the rest of the gang on the 4th bend, even though my predictions were usually rubbish. :lol:

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 This sounds like quite a good game to play. I am not modern technically minded but could an app be made so youngsters can play this on their phone's and it might encourage them to start attending speedway with their friends.

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