Wolfsbane 12,944 Posted May 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Gavan said: Why is that nonsense? Thorsell i dont believe has seen Foxhall and Nicholls knows the place like the back of his hand Morris does ok but in the lower league Personally Thorsell aand Morris will outscore Nicholls and R/R and do beter at most tracks....just that at Foxhall my opinion is that it doesnt make you stronger Nicholls of 10 years ago at the 'old' Foxhall? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gavan 5,049 Posted May 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, BWitcher said: Because Nicholls is a far weaker rider, at any track these days, and RR is even weaker still. I believe Nicholls is a weaker rider than Jacob However at Foxhall (a place Jacob has never ridden i believe) then i would still think he might not do as well as well as Scott just my opinion thats all I think we could have enough to beat Wolves at home next time as maybe Schlein wont do as well and also we should have Jake back and hopefully better riders than Harris and Bellego What a cracking rider Luke Becker is a real gem for you guys Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SPEEDY69 1,250 Posted May 21, 2019 21 minutes ago, BWitcher said: Nicholls rolling average of 6.43 from last 20 meetings. Those all ridden at No 5 or No 3. Thorssell rolling average of 7.25 from last 20 meetings, almost all ridden at No 1, think a couple at 5. It's not even close. League only and of course we all know about lies damn lies and statistics - there are nearly always stats that can back up any point of view. We know yours. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BWitcher 12,453 Posted May 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, SPEEDY69 said: League only and of course we all know about lies damn lies and statistics - there are nearly always stats that can back up any point of view. We know yours. "League only". There was me thinking that was what counted? You're right, the stats are deceiving.. it shows Nicholls to be within a pt of Thorssell on ability.. but when you factor in their riding positions the difference is about 2pts. It doesn't matter how you twist it, how you look at it, Nicholls is nowhere close to the level of Thorssell. Remember when Thorssell was riding at No 3? He was in the top 4 averaged riders in the league.... Is Nicholls? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SPEEDY69 1,250 Posted May 21, 2019 1 minute ago, BWitcher said: "League only". There was me thinking that was what counted? You're right, the stats are deceiving.. it shows Nicholls to be within a pt of Thorssell on ability.. but when you factor in their riding positions the difference is about 2pts. It doesn't matter how you twist it, how you look at it, Nicholls is nowhere close to the level of Thorssell. Remember when Thorssell was riding at No 3? He was in the top 4 averaged riders in the league.... Is Nicholls? I'll humour you. Not sure why you think only league results reflect whether a rider is better than another?? The latest official 'rolling' averages, which I hate, show Scott on 6.56 and using your figure of 7.25 for Thorsell, makes it just a 14 point difference over the 20 meetings - so not even a point per meeting! I'm not sure but I think bonus points are also removed from average calculations? I have not, nor will not, look back at those last 20 meetings to capture a) who the opposition was in each race b) who the team colleague was in each race c) the track/weather conditions for each meeting d) what each opposing rider scored in those meetings e) whether there were any injuries f) whether there any passes made in those heats g)whether there was any team riding in those heats h) the meeting scoreline at each heat so that we can see the pressure placed on the rider in those heats i)whether there were any tapes infringements, exclusions or mechanical failures. I will then be in a more informed position. What makes us think one rider is better than another is subjective and not simply about points scored. In any case, I am not arguing that one rider or another is better than another, simply pointing out why it's not simple. My contention with your argument is that you said that Nicholls was "far weaker" than Thorsell. I disagree. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BWitcher 12,453 Posted May 21, 2019 (edited) 30 minutes ago, SPEEDY69 said: I'll humour you. Not sure why you think only league results reflect whether a rider is better than another?? The latest official 'rolling' averages, which I hate, show Scott on 6.56 and using your figure of 7.25 for Thorsell, makes it just a 14 point difference over the 20 meetings - so not even a point per meeting! I'm not sure but I think bonus points are also removed from average calculations? I have not, nor will not, look back at those last 20 meetings to capture a) who the opposition was in each race b) who the team colleague was in each race c) the track/weather conditions for each meeting d) what each opposing rider scored in those meetings e) whether there were any injuries f) whether there any passes made in those heats g)whether there was any team riding in those heats h) the meeting scoreline at each heat so that we can see the pressure placed on the rider in those heats i)whether there were any tapes infringements, exclusions or mechanical failures. I will then be in a more informed position. What makes us think one rider is better than another is subjective and not simply about points scored. In any case, I am not arguing that one rider or another is better than another, simply pointing out why it's not simple. My contention with your argument is that you said that Nicholls was "far weaker" than Thorsell. I disagree. Good god. I have made it VERY simple for you. Thorssell achieved an average of 7.25, predominantly from riding at No 1. Nicholls achieved his average of 6.43 (Not 6.56) from riding at No 5 and most significantly.. at No 3. The No 1 position is by far the hardest in the side. 3 is significantly easier, to the tune of around 1.5pts per meeting. Your other comments are nonsensical at best. You 'hate' rolling averages? Why is that, you don't want an accurate assessment of the performance of a rider? As for 'league results'.. well, that is the relevant competition so forgive me for considering 'league results' to be a good way of determining the abilities of riders competing in the 'league'. You are right on one thing though.. it isn't that simple.. just looking at the numbers of 6.43 to 7.25 you think Nicholls isn't too far off.. the reality though is very different. Thorssell is way ahead of Nicholls. There isn't anything to agree with or disagree with. We're not discussing opinions. It is stone cold fact that Thorssell has proven himself better than Nicholls in the last couple of seasons by some distance. Just for reference.. when Thorssell had the opportunity to ride at No 3/4 the previous season he clocked up a GSA of just under 9 and had one of the best averages in the league. Once again highlighting the significant difference. Edited May 21, 2019 by BWitcher 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stevebrum 6,820 Posted May 21, 2019 2 hours ago, SPEEDY69 said: What makes us think one rider is better than another is subjective and not simply about points scored. In any case, I am not arguing that one rider or another is better than another, simply pointing out why it's not simple. My contention with your argument is that you said that Nicholls was "far weaker" than Thorsell. I disagree. The only part I can agree to is that Nicholls isn’t ‘far weaker’ but definitely weaker as the averages over the past 2 or 3 seasons have evidenced. Averages are fact based however and that’s whether you use the official rolling averages/this seasons averages/ averages with bonus points/ averages that include all competitions/ form based averages. They all tell a true and accurate story. I agree that whether we think one rider is better than another can be totally subjective although based on like of that rider and/ team that is where some debate tends to happen. My only point is that Jacob is a better rider evidenced by averages over the past 3 seasons and I can’t see how anyone can dispute that fact irregardless of how Scott has performed for Wolves this season. May I add a very pleasant surprise that he has done quite well in Wolves colours better than I expect quite a few Wolves fans expected. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coventry_Bee 467 Posted May 21, 2019 Well, this topic got a bit tasty didn't it. Scott is where is is and not many riders at his age will be still popping in scores he has. The lack of having a full team hasn't been easy as Scott has had many different team mates to get an understanding with, I think it says much about Wolves as a club they stuck to their word about it being short term and I'm not surprised. A very well run club !! As a bees fan seeing Rory and Scott in the same team was great, Scott can be proud of his time as a wolves rider and the pressure is on the guys coming in to perform. Thorsell at home is a no brainier but away form hasn't always been great. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stevebrum 6,820 Posted May 21, 2019 48 minutes ago, Coventry_Bee said: Well, this topic got a bit tasty didn't it. Scott is where is is and not many riders at his age will be still popping in scores he has. The lack of having a full team hasn't been easy as Scott has had many different team mates to get an understanding with, I think it says much about Wolves as a club they stuck to their word about it being short term and I'm not surprised. A very well run club !! As a bees fan seeing Rory and Scott in the same team was great, Scott can be proud of his time as a wolves rider and the pressure is on the guys coming in to perform. Thorsell at home is a no brainier but away form hasn't always been great. Good post, although the issue of Jacob being a poor scorer away is a bit of a myth. Was 6th highest away in 2017, although less in 2018 on just under 7. Freddie got accused of being poor away from Monmore for a long time but was one of the best away riders for a long time before 2018. Seems a myth when a rider has such a dominant average at home that his away average is generally poor in comparison however when you compare to other riders it isn’t as bad as you would expect. For example Scott’s away average last season is just over 5.5! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ProudtobeaBrummie 646 Posted May 22, 2019 Come on guys this is 2019 not 2014 i think it is unquestionable that Jacob is now a far better rider than Scott is nowadays. Jacob coming back in will really strengthen Wolves now both home and away . 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Call me wolfie 677 Posted May 22, 2019 1 hour ago, ProudtobeaBrummie said: Come on guys this is 2019 not 2014 i think it is unquestionable that Jacob is now a far better rider than Scott is nowadays. Jacob coming back in will really strengthen Wolves now both home and away . I only agreed with the tracks Jacob has limited or no experience on, most notably Ipswich. Otherwise I totally agree that Jacob makes us stronger overall, of that I have no doubt. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ProudtobeaBrummie 646 Posted May 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Call me wolfie said: I only agreed with the tracks Jacob has limited or no experience on, most notably Ipswich. Otherwise I totally agree that Jacob makes us stronger overall, of that I have no doubt. I think that is a more than fair comment Wolfie . 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ProudtobeaBrummie 646 Posted May 22, 2019 (edited) If Nick can out score what his r/r has been getting then again stronger again .Its looking pretty good for wolves i have to say . Becker has proved me wrong big time made me eat my own words so to speak but thats great. Kyle seems to of hit a bit of a plateau in his career not really kicked on last or this season but still solid enough. Ashley Morris is a concern hopefully he can pick his form up starting tonight for the Brummies. Note to Wolves season ticket holders you get £2.50 off admission at Perry Barr all season if you show your ST on entrance . Sorry my bad all Wolves season ticket holders will get concessions rate which is £2.50 off if your under the age of concession. Edited May 22, 2019 by ProudtobeaBrummie Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Call me wolfie 677 Posted May 22, 2019 53 minutes ago, ProudtobeaBrummie said: If Nick can out score what his r/r has been getting then again stronger again .Its looking pretty good for wolves i have to say . Becker has proved me wrong big time made me eat my own words so to speak but thats great. Kyle seems to of hit a bit of a plateau in his career not really kicked on last or this season but still solid enough. Ashley Morris is a concern hopefully he can pick his form up starting tonight for the Brummies. Note to Wolves season ticket holders you get £2.50 off admission at Perry Barr all season if you show your ST on entrance . Sorry my bad all Wolves season ticket holders will get concessions rate which is £2.50 off if your under the age of concession. I believe Ashley has said a lack of meetings so far this season has made it difficult for him to really get any momentum going. Hopefully he will get a few more meetings in with you guys over the coming weeks. The trouble with Ashley, in my opinion, is the standard of reserve in the top league this year is very good and he has the second lowest average. Points this year are going to be very hard for him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gavan 5,049 Posted May 22, 2019 10 hours ago, Call me wolfie said: I only agreed with the tracks Jacob has limited or no experience on, most notably Ipswich. Otherwise I totally agree that Jacob makes us stronger overall, of that I have no doubt. Was the point I was making earlier Scott to me would do better than Jacob at Foxhall but overall you would have Jacob Share this post Link to post Share on other sites