auntie doris 2,333 Posted September 8, 2019 7 hours ago, HenryW said: My top 20 riders, as of today, based on a calculation that I am happy to explain if anyone cares (I know you don't) are: Niels Kristian Iversen 10.46 Jason Doyle 10.41 Max Fricke 10.05 Troy Batchelor 9.99 Brady Kurtz 9.37 Kenneth Bjerre 9.28 Craig Cook 9.27 Robert Lambert 9.00 Jack Holder 9.00 Rasmus Jensen 9.00 Sam Masters 8.92 Nicolai Klindt 8.72 Jacob Thorssell 8.62 Rory Schlein 8.57 Tobiasz Musielak 8.24 Rohan Tungate 8.18 Josh Grajczonek 8.17 Daniel King 8.06 Richard Lawson 7.89 Adam Ellis 7.77 Explain... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HenryW 1,177 Posted September 13, 2019 On 9/8/2019 at 10:15 AM, auntie doris said: Explain... Oops...Sorry, I missed this request Just for my own "entertainment", I do love to play about with speedway statistics. So, to explain the figures that I posted.... I consider each race as a collection of head to head contests between the riders in the race, ignoring team mates....So for the stats posted on this thread, every race was considered as separate Red v White, Red v Yellow, Blue v White and Blue v Yellow contests. I then used an adaptation of the Bradley-Terry Model to calculate the probability of each rider beating every other rider in the league. I then use these probability numbers to calculate a traditional British CMA based on the hypothetical scenario where every rider who has raced in the league meets every other rider who has raced in the league just once. Hopefully that makes sense...I know there are flaws with the concept and I would never base my betting on a specific race around the probabilities that it produces, but as a stats geek I kinda like what I see in the results that this model generates over the long term. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
auntie doris 2,333 Posted September 15, 2019 I use the doris method x 3.14..Doyley always top boy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dontforgetthefueltapsbruv 10,683 Posted September 16, 2019 18 hours ago, auntie doris said: I use the doris method x 3.14..Doyley always top boy. Just some Pi in the sky method then... 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
arnieg 3,605 Posted September 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, dontforgetthefueltapsbruv said: Just some Pi in the sky method then... That's just irrational 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baldyman 6,243 Posted September 16, 2019 Looks like someone is trying to work out their way around it Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barrow Boy 2 172 Posted October 4, 2019 My top 20 riders on current form up to and including 30.09.19 were as follows:- 01 (01) Jason Doyle-Swindon-1110 02 (02) Troy Batchelor-Swindon-1080 03 (----) Robert Lambert-King's Lynn-1000 04 (07) Jacob Thorsell-Wolves-980 05 (05) Sam Masters-Wolves-970 06 (04) Max Fricke-Belle Vue-960 07 (03) Kenneth Bjerre-940 08 (09) Brady Kurtz-Poole-920 09 (----) Neils Kristian Iversen-Ipswich-900 10 (08) Craig Cook-King's Lynn-880 11 (10) Michael Palm Toft-King's Lynn-875 12 (14) Eric Riss-King's Lynn-870 13 (10) Nicolai Klindt-Poole-865 14 (20) Adam Ellis-Swindon-860 15 (13) Nick Morris-Wolves-830 16 (06) Rasmus Jensen-Swindon-815 17 (16) Danny King-Ipswich-820 18 (----) Josh Grajczonek-Poole-790 19 (18) Rory Schlein-Wolves-780 20 (15) Dan Bewley-Belle Vue-770 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
auntie doris 2,333 Posted October 4, 2019 (edited) Would have Heeps Lawson and Allen of Ipswich in, and Jensen above Ellis. Not surprised Holder has dropped out, poor form last month. Muesli has gone down. I will go Doyle, Batch, Thorsell, Masters, Lambo, Iversen, Fricke, Bjerre, Kurtz, Klindt, Cookie, Jensen, Ellis, Grajczonek, King, Lawson, Allen, Heeps, Morris, Riss. Edited October 6, 2019 by auntie doris 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barrow Boy 2 172 Posted October 28, 2019 My to 20 riders at the end of the season are as follows:- 01 (01) Jason Doyle-Swindon-1110 02 (03) Robert Lambert-King's Lynn-1000 03 (09) Neils Kristian Iversen-Ipswich-995 04 (06) Max Fricke-Belle Vue-960 05 (02) Troy Batchelor-Swindon-955 06 (07) Kenneth Bjerre-Belle Vue-940 07 (08) Brady Kurtz-Poole-920 08 (05) Sam Masters-Wolves-915 09 (10) Craig Cook-King's Lynn-880 10 (12) Eric Riss-King's Lynn-875 11 (13) Nicolai Klindt-Poole-870 12 (----) Tobias Musielak-Swindon-865 13 (04) Jacob Thorsell-Wolves-860 14 (16) Rasmus Jensen-Swindon-855 15 (14) Adam Ellis-Swindon-850 16 (18) Josh Grajczonek-Poole-790 17 (20) Dan Bewley-Belle Vue-770 18 (----) Kyle Howarth-Wolves-765 19 (----) Charles Wright-Peterborough-740 20 (----) Jack Holder-Poole-735 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DC2 11,150 Posted October 28, 2019 That list looks wrong. Here’s the official averages. Much more accurate! http://www.speedwaygb.co.uk/files/downloads/p19_issue_25.pdf Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baldyman 6,243 Posted October 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, DC2 said: That list looks wrong. Here’s the official averages. Much more accurate! http://www.speedwaygb.co.uk/files/downloads/p19_issue_25.pdf But its his own list, so it can't be right or wrong. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dontforgetthefueltapsbruv 10,683 Posted October 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Baldyman said: But its his own list, so it can't be right or wrong. Agree but I cant see any way Iversens half dozen or so meetings put him at No3 !! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baldyman 6,243 Posted October 28, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, dontforgetthefueltapsbruv said: Agree but I cant see any way Iversens half dozen or so meetings put him at No3 !! Me neither, but it's not my list, I've got better things to do with my life than make up lists, unless it's top 10 females that do it for ya, then I could be interested. Maybe he likes the name niels Edited October 28, 2019 by Baldyman 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
auntie doris 2,333 Posted October 28, 2019 After Swindon battering Wolves and Ipswich in the playoffs my top riders for October would be Doyley, Batch, Muesli, Jensen, Ellis, Vissing, Perks..... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barrow Boy 2 172 Posted November 6, 2019 On 10/28/2019 at 8:53 AM, DC2 said: That list looks wrong. Here’s the official averages. Much more accurate! http://www.speedwaygb.co.uk/files/downloads/p19_issue_25.pdf My list is based on current form and not the whole of 2019. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites