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My Top 20 Riders

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7 hours ago, HenryW said:

My top 20 riders, as of today, based on a calculation that I am happy to explain if anyone cares (I know you don't) are:

Niels Kristian Iversen 10.46
Jason Doyle 10.41
Max Fricke 10.05
Troy Batchelor 9.99
Brady Kurtz 9.37
Kenneth Bjerre 9.28
Craig Cook 9.27
Robert Lambert 9.00
Jack Holder 9.00
Rasmus Jensen 9.00
Sam Masters 8.92
Nicolai Klindt 8.72
Jacob Thorssell 8.62
Rory Schlein 8.57
Tobiasz Musielak 8.24
Rohan Tungate 8.18
Josh Grajczonek 8.17
Daniel King 8.06
Richard Lawson 7.89
Adam Ellis 7.77

Explain...

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On 9/8/2019 at 10:15 AM, auntie doris said:

Explain...

Oops...Sorry, I missed this request :unsure:

Just for my own "entertainment", I do love to play about with speedway statistics. 

So, to explain the figures that I posted....

I consider each race as a collection of head to head contests between the riders in the race, ignoring team mates....So for the stats posted on this thread, every race was considered as separate Red v White, Red v Yellow, Blue v White and Blue v Yellow contests.

I then used an adaptation of the Bradley-Terry Model to calculate the probability of each rider beating every other rider in the league. 

I then use these probability numbers to calculate a traditional British CMA based on the hypothetical scenario where every rider who has raced in the league meets every other rider who has raced in the league just once.

Hopefully that makes sense...I know there are flaws with the concept and I would never base my betting on a specific race around the probabilities that it produces, but as a stats geek I kinda like what I see in the results that this model generates over the long term. :D

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I use the doris method x 3.14..Doyley always top boy.

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18 hours ago, auntie doris said:

I use the doris method x 3.14..Doyley always top boy.

Just some Pi in the sky method then...

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16 minutes ago, dontforgetthefueltapsbruv said:

Just some Pi in the sky method then...

That's just irrational

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My top 20 riders on current form up to and including 30.09.19 were as follows:-

01 (01) Jason Doyle-Swindon-1110

02 (02) Troy Batchelor-Swindon-1080

03 (----) Robert Lambert-King's Lynn-1000

04 (07) Jacob Thorsell-Wolves-980

05 (05) Sam Masters-Wolves-970

06 (04) Max Fricke-Belle Vue-960

07 (03) Kenneth Bjerre-940

08 (09) Brady Kurtz-Poole-920

09 (----) Neils Kristian Iversen-Ipswich-900

10 (08) Craig Cook-King's Lynn-880

11 (10) Michael Palm Toft-King's Lynn-875

12 (14) Eric Riss-King's Lynn-870

13 (10) Nicolai Klindt-Poole-865

14 (20) Adam Ellis-Swindon-860

15 (13) Nick Morris-Wolves-830

16 (06) Rasmus Jensen-Swindon-815

17 (16) Danny King-Ipswich-820

18 (----) Josh Grajczonek-Poole-790

19 (18) Rory Schlein-Wolves-780

20 (15) Dan Bewley-Belle Vue-770

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Would have Heeps Lawson and Allen of Ipswich in, and Jensen above Ellis. Not surprised Holder has dropped out, poor form last month. Muesli has gone down.

 I will go Doyle, Batch, Thorsell, Masters, Lambo, Iversen, Fricke, Bjerre, Kurtz, Klindt, Cookie, Jensen, Ellis, Grajczonek, King, Lawson, Allen, Heeps, Morris, Riss.

Edited by auntie doris
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My to 20 riders at the end of the season are as follows:-

01 (01) Jason Doyle-Swindon-1110

02 (03) Robert Lambert-King's Lynn-1000

03 (09) Neils Kristian Iversen-Ipswich-995

04 (06) Max Fricke-Belle Vue-960

05 (02) Troy Batchelor-Swindon-955

06 (07) Kenneth Bjerre-Belle Vue-940

07 (08) Brady Kurtz-Poole-920

08 (05) Sam Masters-Wolves-915

09 (10) Craig Cook-King's Lynn-880

10 (12) Eric Riss-King's Lynn-875

11 (13) Nicolai Klindt-Poole-870

12 (----) Tobias Musielak-Swindon-865

13 (04) Jacob Thorsell-Wolves-860

14 (16) Rasmus Jensen-Swindon-855

15 (14) Adam Ellis-Swindon-850

16 (18) Josh Grajczonek-Poole-790

17 (20) Dan Bewley-Belle Vue-770

18 (----) Kyle Howarth-Wolves-765

19 (----) Charles Wright-Peterborough-740

20 (----) Jack Holder-Poole-735

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1 hour ago, Baldyman said:

But its his own list, so it can't be right or wrong. 

Agree but I cant see any way Iversens half dozen or so meetings put him at No3 !!

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2 hours ago, dontforgetthefueltapsbruv said:

Agree but I cant see any way Iversens half dozen or so meetings put him at No3 !!

Me neither, but it's not my list, I've got better things to do with my life than make up lists, unless it's top 10 females that do it for ya, then I could be interested. 

Maybe he likes the name niels

Edited by Baldyman
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After Swindon battering Wolves and Ipswich in the playoffs my top riders for October would be Doyley, Batch, Muesli, Jensen, Ellis, Vissing, Perks.....

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