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Prediction thread

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1 hour ago, szkocjasid said:

Did Jensen ride at reserve though? He replaced Lampart, who was in the team, and would always have had an ave higher than Perks / Shanes / Wajknecht / Vissing!

Jensen never rode at reserve,and Wright only had 3 matches at no1 afaik.

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1 hour ago, acef said:

Bet my bottom dollar wright finishes with a higher average than Jensen. Jensen is in a difficult spot now, his average is only going 1 way. 
 

Weight got his average as a heat leader and number 1 for a while.

Kildemand has been poor but that’s not the real version of him. If he rediscovers his form, there will be nothing between him and Batchelor.

Doyle is head and shoulders above the rest of the league so no comparison.

Beneath that I think BV are stronger with better reserves, and equal 2nd strings.

That’s a brave statement about Jensen as much as I like Wright his gating isn’t good enough .

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1 hour ago, szkocjasid said:

Did Jensen ride at reserve though? He replaced Lampart, who was in the team, and would always have had an ave higher than Perks / Shanes / Wajknecht / Vissing!

I'd have to double check but I understood he started there. I may well be wrong on that one.

Jensen came out of nowhere. He was a steady 2nd Division rider, so to come into that Swindon team and do what he did was more than surprising. He started on a low average so it was always going to increase, but at the end of the season I genuinely thought he'd ridden himself out of a team place so fair kop to Swindon for sticking by him. Personally I just don't see him keeping that average.

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Jensen was always in the top 5, never reserve

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1 hour ago, stevebrum said:

If Kildemand hits the ground running then I’d probably agree you would be joint favourites. He is a huge risk in my opinion but personally looking forward to see his all action style. 

Jensen actually improved his average as the season went on so obviously I disagree with your point. As far as I know he never rode at reserve either.

Jensen last season was a revelation.

This season is going to be really, really tough for him. 

 

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44 minutes ago, hans fan said:

That’s a brave statement about Jensen as much as I like Wright his gating isn’t good enough .

I don't think it's brave, I think it's a logical way to look at it. 

There is a 1.3 difference between them, but as I've said previously Wright was either 1/3/5 across a full season pretty much. I think he had a tougher gig than Jensen.

Time will tell, but I think by the season end they will be in and around the same ball park.

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31 minutes ago, acef said:

Jensen last season was a revelation.

This season is going to be really, really tough for him. 

 

He was a huge revelation. I don’t think anyone saw that coming.

If he maintains his average then he will have done well too, but looks capable of more.

Wright on the other hand is more than a point away as far as averages go and I grant you in a poor performing team. However with no clear leader at Belle Vue he will need to up his game as well if the Aces are to have a successful season. He has been a very slow burner so whether he has an extra point in him this season is very debatable.

As he is a Brit I hope he has a great season.

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3 minutes ago, stevebrum said:

He was a huge revelation. I don’t think anyone saw that coming.

If he maintains his average then he will have done well too, but looks capable of more.

Wright on the other hand is more than a point away as far as averages go and I grant you in a poor performing team. However with no clear leader at Belle Vue he will need to up his game as well if the Aces are to have a successful season. He has been a very slow burner so whether he has an extra point in him this season is very debatable.

As he is a Brit I hope he has a great season.

Context is everything. Wright may be a point away, but he ridden the entire season as a heat leader.

It's a bit like the masters debate a few of us had not long ago. At the end of the day the averages don't lie but it's very circumstantial.

Wright has been steadily developing season upon season and I think there is another point in him, whereas with Jensen, I think he'll lose a point.

My argument is that there is little between them when you look at the context of how those averages were attained.

Let's look at the numbers in 10 months time.

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I’m not convinced there’s another point in Wright, would love to be wrong though. 

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The thing about averages is they never tell the whole story. The team they're in and their confidence etc. play a huge part. Wright may have been at 1 3 or 5 but was fairly certain of finishing ahead of his team partner in a lot of races, Jensen not so much. 

A new track for Wright could erode or build his confidence, having a big impact. 

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Swindons top 3 is head and shoulders above Belle Vues, cant even see how thats up for debate. 

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58 minutes ago, Pinny said:

Swindons top 3 is head and shoulders above Belle Vues, cant even see how thats up for debate. 

Swindon's top 2 yes, 3 no, any half decent rider who comes into a team with Doyle and Batchelor as the top 2,will/should improve, as Jenson did. But he is not head and shoulders above Wright. 

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Without knowing who will fill the final berths at Ipswich & P'boro, difficult to judge.

Swindon - the bottom end is looking a bit feeble, but Perks should improve further and good on Swindon for giving a young Brit in Rowe a chance.  The danger is that Jensen is not able to maintain the level he achieved during a spectacular breakout season in 2019.  An injury to Doyle will be hard to overcome.  Play-Offs, yep.

Sheffield - Solid top 5, guessing the hope is that there is improvement in Holder because can't see much improvement anywhere else in the team but no real risks either. Play-Offs, yep.

Belle Vue - Interesting team, could Kurtz finally become a genuine #1 is the first question.  Can Kildemand rediscover any of the form he showed a few years ago another big question.  Don't think there is much more to come from Worrall if I'm honest but there certainly should be from Bewley & Lidsey.  Play-Offs, likely.

Kings Lynn - same old, same old.  Lambert had a poor 2019 but better back up from the start of the season this year in Cook & Riss will help.  Jorgensen, Proctor & Kerr are uninspiring signings and suspect Hartel will struggle.  Play-Offs, maybe.

Wolves - If Morris can rediscover his form from 2017 then Wolves might do OK but the likely improvement at the bottom end may only make up for the 2 points the team starts below the limit.  Masters, Thorrsell & Schlien are not going to improve and none of them are genuine #1's.  Play-Offs, unlikely.

Of these septets can only see Swindon, Sheffield & Belle Vue potentially winning the play-offs.

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All the talk is about Belle vue''s top 3 for me I will be happy if they hold their averages.I think Belle vue's biggest strength will be Bewley and Lidsey two young riders that in my opinion should well improve their averages next season.Dan dropped nearly a point off his 2018 average last year due to his horrendous injury and was beginning to look like his old self by the end of the season and with a full closed season to improve his health/strength  I believe he will be our third heat leader in no time leaving Wright as a very good second string with easier heats.

Lidsey is pure class and is going places fast with a full British season behind him to learn the ropes he should be pushing/overtaking Worrall for a top 5 spot either way leaving Belle vue with a very strong reserve.I also believe that Worrall who dropped nearly a point off his average has had the metal work removed from his leg which could see him return to the rider he was before his bad injury.All if's and but's but if this is the case Belle vue are in for a good season.

All about opinions folks and this is mine.

Edited by B.V 72
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On 1/12/2020 at 8:53 AM, phillipsr said:

Doyle vs Kurtz = Doyle 

Batch vs Killer = Batch 

Jensen vs Wright = Jensen 

Ellis vs Bewley = Ellis 

Stewart vs Worrall = close.. depends if Worrall is over injuries 

Perks vs Lidsey = Lidsey 

Rowe vs Etheridge = Rowe everywhere else over than the NSS 

so not close really... dont get the fuss on this Belle Vue team at all 

Just picking out the Rowe v Etheridge comment I can only go off what I have seen.i saw Rowe in three Colts meetings last year.Out if 15 rides he won one race against National league heat leaders.He may do OK at home but away I think he is in for a very tough season.

Edited by B.V 72

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