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Prediction thread

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24 minutes ago, B.V 72 said:

Just picking out the Rowe v Etheridge comment I can only go off what I have seen.i saw Rowe in three Colts meetings last year.Out if 15 rides he won one race against National league heat leaders.He may do OK at home but away I think he is in for a very tough season.

Don't disagree but so is Etheridge, ive seen Rowe at a couple of places but mainly Scunthorpe where he has always gone very well,  id rather have Rowe but at the NSS Etheridge is very good.. 

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3 hours ago, hyderd said:

Swindon's top 2 yes, 3 no, any half decent rider who comes into a team with Doyle and Batchelor as the top 2,will/should improve, as Jenson did. But he is not head and shoulders above Wright. 

Will have to disagree. 
 

The argument was top 3 vs top 3.... Swindons is a lot stronger. 
 

Doyle well clear of Kurtz , Batchelor again way clear of a fading Kildemand and Jensen over a point higher than Wright. I cant see how there can be any comparison really.

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8 minutes ago, Pinny said:

Will have to disagree. 
 

The argument was top 3 vs top 3.... Swindons is a lot stronger. 
 

Doyle well clear of Kurtz , Batchelor again way clear of a fading Kildemand and Jensen over a point higher than Wright. I cant see how there can be any comparison really.

No argument regards Doyle and Batch, but Jensen and Wright are closer then you say if we count both leagues. Wright has a 0.54 better average in the Championship, Jensen has a 0.82 better average in the prem, put them together and Jensen's total average is 0.28 better. Wright gained his Prem average over a full season riding for the weakest team. Jenson gained his over a big part season riding for the strongest team. 

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14 hours ago, acef said:

Context is everything. Wright may be a point away, but he ridden the entire season as a heat leader.

It's a bit like the masters debate a few of us had not long ago. At the end of the day the averages don't lie but it's very circumstantial.

Wright has been steadily developing season upon season and I think there is another point in him, whereas with Jensen, I think he'll lose a point.

My argument is that there is little between them when you look at the context of how those averages were attained.

Let's look at the numbers in 10 months time.

Fully agree, I expect Jensen to have a higher average by end of year. :t:

5 hours ago, Pinny said:

Swindons top 3 is head and shoulders above Belle Vues, cant even see how thats up for debate. 

Nor me, it’s a barmy comparison. 

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58 minutes ago, Pinny said:

Will have to disagree. 
 

The argument was top 3 vs top 3.... Swindons is a lot stronger. 
 

Doyle well clear of Kurtz , Batchelor again way clear of a fading Kildemand and Jensen over a point higher than Wright. I cant see how there can be any comparison really.

Because you are not looking at the context of the situation.

You are looking at averages. I agree, on paper, there is a clear and present gap but numbers alone don’t tell us the whole story.

If we are using the form of Kildemand on the continent, which we shouldn’t be, then we could introduce another angle altogether on this. Killer has been a better rider abroad than Batchelor over the last 5 years. 

Very difficult to pass judgment on a rider who hasn’t ridden here for a long time.

Its purely speculative and as it stands I have no way of measuring Killer against Batchelor, I can only say that in my opinion, if he gets to the level he has been previous, that he will be in and around the figure of Troy at the season end.

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4 hours ago, hyderd said:

Swindon's top 2 yes, 3 no, any half decent rider who comes into a team with Doyle and Batchelor as the top 2,will/should improve, as Jenson did. But he is not head and shoulders above Wright. 

Correct.

Doyle v Kurtz won’t be a comparison again this season because Jason is just so much better, but killer vs batch most certainly will be as the season goes on.

Jensen v Wright. Absolutely nothing in it when you look at the context.

Swindon have a much better number one, but 2nd and 3rd heat leader there is nothing between them in my opinion. I think PK and Wright will be as strong as TB and RJ.

Edited by acef

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2 minutes ago, acef said:

Because you are not looking at the context of the situation.

You are looking at averages. I agree, on paper, there is a clear and present gap but numbers alone don’t tell us the whole story.

If we are using the form of Kildemand on the continent, which we shouldn’t be, then we could introduce another angle altogether on this. Killer has been a better rider abroad than Batchelor over the last 5 years. 

Very difficult to pass judgment on a rider who hasn’t ridden here for a long time.

Its purely speculative and as it stands I have no way of measuring Killer against Batchelor, I can only say that in my opinion, if he gets to the level he has been previous, that he will be in and around the figure of Troy at the season end.

What is the highest figure Kildemand has been at in the UK? 
 

Batchelor, as a second heatleader, is superb and even a prime Kildemand would struggle to match that figure. Let alone a rider who has completely lost his way, he hardly pulled any trees up for Poole in 2018 either did he?

His form abroad has been awful for a couple of seasons now. He may go on to be a hit this season but it is extremely likely he will get absolutely nowhere near Batchelor .

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4 minutes ago, acef said:

Correct.

Doyle v Kurtz won’t be a comparison again this season because Jason is just so much better, but killer vs batch most certainly will be as the season goes on.

Jensen v Wright. Absolutely nothing in it when you look at the context.

Swindon have a much better number one, but 2nd and 3rd heat leader there is nothing between them in my opinion. I think PK and Wright will be as strong as TB and RJ.

I am sorry, but that is complete and utter bias and theres no other phrase for it. 

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2 minutes ago, Pinny said:

What is the highest figure Kildemand has been at in the UK? 
 

Batchelor, as a second heatleader, is superb and even a prime Kildemand would struggle to match that figure. Let alone a rider who has completely lost his way, he hardly pulled any trees up for Poole in 2018 either did he?

His form abroad has been awful for a couple of seasons now. He may go on to be a hit this season but it is extremely likely he will get absolutely nowhere near Batchelor .

I’d have to check the numbers. 
 

A prime Killer vs a prime Batchelor, think there would be little in it personally.

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2 minutes ago, Pinny said:

I am sorry, but that is complete and utter bias and theres no other phrase for it. 

Not bias, just an opinion. It’s how I see it.

Like I said to Steve, let’s revisit this in 10 months time. 

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20 minutes ago, Pinny said:

What is the highest figure Kildemand has been at in the UK? 

 

8.25

It put him 9th in the country behind  Woffinden, NKI, Ward, Hancock, Lindgren, Zagar, Bjerre and Andersen.

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38 minutes ago, PotteringAround said:

8.25

It put him 9th in the country behind  Woffinden, NKI, Ward, Hancock, Lindgren, Zagar, Bjerre and Andersen.

Ahhhhhhh, those were the days. :sad:

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The only like for like comparison you can make between Kildemand and Batchelor is ....

Elitserien 2019
Peter Kildemand 1,368
Troy Batchelor 1,063

Batchelor rode Nice League 1 rather than Ekstraliga in Poland.

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A bit of a guess till teams are completed, but here goes:
1st Swindon
2nd Belle Vue
3rd Peterborough
4th Wolverhampton
5th Ipswich
6th King's Lynn
7th Sheffield
Edited by szkocjasid

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On the Belle Vue vs Swindon comments, I'd expect Bachelor (9.4) to outscore Kildemand (7.5) and Etheridge (4.1) to outscore Rowe (2.9)

Swindon clearly have a stronger top 4, whereas Belle Vue clearly have a stronger bottom 3!

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