Covid-19 Are we being told the truth ?

[DC2 10,664]

52 minutes ago, Shrub said:

You clearly don't read stuff, do you. It was not DC2 who wrote this but me Shrub!! I don't claim to be an expert. I just say listen to the experts who say it is wrong. And it is not FACT. All we're doing is going round in circles getting nowhere.

 

It’s unbelievable that the government has neither presented nor debated the alternative approach.

They’ve mentioned it only once; two weeks ago when Boris dismissed it as unfeasible because “we have too many multi-generational households”!

Pathetic.

They completely wasted the Summer months.

[Shrub 1,068]

21 minutes ago, DC2 said:

Excellent post.

Why has Imperial College not modelled the alternative “quarantine” option?

 

Because they've run out of plasticine?

[dave69 1,448]

23 minutes ago, bluejam said:

So is Sunetra Gupta at Oxford University

Yep .Watch her.

[dave69 1,448]

26 minutes ago, DC2 said:

Excellent post.

Why has Imperial College not modelled the alternative “quarantine” option?

 

Because Ferguson is too busy meeting his slappers ?

[ruffdiamond 5,831]

20 minutes ago, DC2 said:

Pathetic.

They completely wasted the Summer months.

But that plays into their favour, the longer they can drag it out the better. There could be 2 outcomes, the longer it goes on and folk might surrender and give into their rules. Or they might break it and it all goes t!ts up. Don't think they haven't done their homework on how folk will behave, as am sure they have.

[Blupanther 19,703]

[Red Flag 453]

2 hours ago, Tsunami said:

It appears she is a Charge Nurse in a hospital,  but she can be anything you want her to be.

My kind of girl

[SPEEDY69 839]

11 hours ago, OveFundinFan said:

Well, most of europe has taken the same steps, and no doubt there are other countries around the world that are already in lockdown or planning to be, they all wrong as well???

They still don't really know how it's being transmitted so the restrictions are way too broad and general. We could all get it from the supermarket, meanwhile all 'non-essential' shops etc. have to shut. Ludicrous. 

[Crumpet91 3,464]

If this is genuine, it must be exposed.

 

[Blupanther 19,703]

Here comes Nigel again...

 

[PHILIPRISING 7,298]

FROM the Health Editor of the Daily Telegraph ...

Death scenarios used by the Government to justify a second national lockdownare out-of-date and may be four times too high, research suggests. At Saturday night’s Downing Street press conference, scientists presented graphs suggesting England could see 4,000 daily deaths early next month. The scenario from Cambridge University was used as part of efforts to justify the introduction of sweeping restrictions.

But data experts have questioned why the scenario - drawn up three weeks ago - was chosen to illustrate the crisis, when the university has produced far more recent forecasts, which are significantly lower. The modelling presented on Saturday night, which suggests deaths could reach 4,000 a day by December, is so out-of-date that it suggests daily deaths are now around 1,000 a day. In fact, the daily average for the last week is 260, with a figure of 162 yesterday.

And the statistics unit at Cambridge University has produced far more up-to-date projections, with far lower figures, the Telegraph can reveal. These forecasts, dated October 28 - three days before the Downing Street announcement - far more closely track the current situation, forecasting 240 daily deaths by next week, and around 500 later this month. 

While these predictions do not look as far ahead as December, they suggest a picture which is far more optimistic than the scenario which caused shock waves this weekend. 

Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, at Oxford University, said he was “deeply concerned” by the selection of data which were not based on the current reality. He said: “Our job as scientists is to reflect the evidence and the uncertainties and to provide the latest estimates. I cannot understand why they have used this data, when there are far more up-to-date forecasts from Cambridge that they could have accessed, which show something very different.”

Prof Heneghan said his analysis suggests the forecasts could be four to five times too high. 

He said: “I’m deeply concerned about how the data is being presented so that politicians can make decisions. It is a fast-changing situation, which is very different in different regions, and it concerns me that MPs who are about to go to a vote are not getting the full picture.”

The modelling was among several scenarios presented by Sir Patrick Vallance, chief scientific advisor, during the Downing Street press conference, and described as “early SPI-M (Sage’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling) working analysis”.

David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, said: “This is not the first time that we’ve had misleading forecasts. Back in March we had the Imperial College model which was some 10 times greater than any potential outcome.The first responsibility of the scientific advisers to the Government is to give the truth to the public and not to cherry pick the data. This is a fairly major error on their part if they’ve used old data which effectively misleads the public.

“Since members of Parliament absolutely need to have accurate information to make the undoubtedly difficult judgments on this, I hope that they correct the record before the Prime Minister briefs the House.”

Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader, said: “This is yet another example of the experts on Sage marking their own homework and selecting carefully the data they needed to get the Government to make the decision to lockdown. This appears to be deliberately misleading the British public. It should be retracted.”

Former Brexit minister Steve Baker said: "This evidence does appear to indicate that the death models are already wrong and by quite a considerable margin. He raised concerns about whether other modelling presented on Saturday was also open to question. Mr Baker said: "If the modelling on NHS capacity is as flawed, we are suddenly in a different conversation today from the one I had in Number 10 on Saturday."

[DC2 10,664]

That’s from SAGE and the government that told you that Covid does not discriminate.

Liars.

[DC2 10,664]

SAGE couldn’t even tell when peak deaths happened a week after they had: what chance have they got of predicting the future!

 

[AFCB Wildcat 1,068]

1 hour ago, SPEEDY69 said:

They still don't really know how it's being transmitted so the restrictions are way too broad and general. We could all get it from the supermarket, meanwhile all 'non-essential' shops etc. have to shut. Ludicrous. 

That's a really good point and one that's been troubling me too.

I don't know if it's been discussed in depth on here as I've only dipped in and out as it's just going round in circles. 

It does seem unfair on hospitality and small businesses. Every restaurant or pub I've visited has gone above and beyond as far as distancing, masks and cleanliness yet have to close. 

I have only been in one petrol station since this began that has had hand sanitizer and facilities to clean pumps before and after use. I know people were stealing the gloves so they aren't available. As soon as lockdown starts, the super markets are rammed because that's the only place to go. Just because goods are essential it doesn't make them safer to buy than non essential items if the same precautions are taken for both. 

Has there been any study on how it's being transmitted? Data from track & trace etc. 

[PHILIPRISING 7,298]

10 minutes ago, AFCB Wildcat said:

That's a really good point and one that's been troubling me too.

I don't know if it's been discussed in depth on here as I've only dipped in and out as it's just going round in circles. 

It does seem unfair on hospitality and small businesses. Every restaurant or pub I've visited has gone above and beyond as far as distancing, masks and cleanliness yet have to close. 

I have only been in one petrol station since this began that has had hand sanitizer and facilities to clean pumps before and after use. I know people were stealing the gloves so they aren't available. As soon as lockdown starts, the super markets are rammed because that's the only place to go. Just because goods are essential it doesn't make them safer to buy than non essential items if the same precautions are taken for both. 

Has there been any study on how it's being transmitted? Data from track & trace etc. 

IF you have a few minutes ...

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html?fbclid=IwAR0R-bC4dnk8lBrmKqrFxMu3ipbEy6zdaQkN3hd1FKnZU58-GWSx36nUKrQ