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Covid-19 Are we being told the truth ?

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Just now, BWitcher said:

There is no difference, Germany is just a bit behind. The figures are growing and within a week or two will be towards current UK levels.

There is a difference. Everybody has been talking about it. Ask DC2

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2 hours ago, Humphrey Appleby said:

COVID-19 was already in Europe back in January, and was pretty well publicised even then.

But so what if you had known whether you had it or not? There's no cure, so either you get sick enough to have to go into the hospital where most likely you'll survive with fluids and oxygen, or you stay at home feeling under-the-weather where very likely you'll make a full recovery within a week. 

I'm not really sure how testing is really supposed to help, because by the time you're showing symptoms you'll have probably already passed it on to someone else. 

The point being made was nothing to do with testing.It was about the way statistics, but after a bit of digging with DC2 it was probably a bit of a moot point anyway.. I don’t know where you got the testing bit from.

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1 minute ago, iris123 said:

There is a difference. Everybody has been talking about it. Ask DC2

There's a difference in terms of numbers tested.

The deaths is now rising as it has with other nations... as said, it was just a little behind.

The figure of 0.5% is still bandied about as the German mortality rate, but that's now up to 1.37%... and rising.

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5 minutes ago, iris123 said:

Someone died in a care home in Hamburg that had Covid-19, but they will do an autopsy to see if Covid-19 is the actual cause. Maybe if this has been done often in Germany, which I don’t know, it might be the reason for the difference between other countries


In Italy Covid is cause of death in only 12% of cases.

https://www.ft.com/content/f3796baf-e4f0-4862-8887-d09c7f706553

 

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2 minutes ago, BWitcher said:

There's a difference in terms of numbers tested.

The deaths is now rising as it has with other nations... as said, it was just a little behind.

The figure of 0.5% is still bandied about as the German mortality rate, but that's now up to 1.37%... and rising.

There is also a difference in how cases are looked at if autopsies are done to determine the actual cause of death. Which it seems very few countries are doing. And by doing that you are going to end up with a difference in statistics. Only a buffoon will argue otherwise 

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1 hour ago, iris123 said:

There is a difference. Everybody has been talking about it. Ask DC2


Yes.

I don’t think the discrepancy in the figures is due to “Germany being two weeks behind us and France (and four behind Italy)”.

Edit: Germany is one week behind us, not two, on the daily death figures. BWitcher could be right.

Edited by DC2
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5 minutes ago, iris123 said:

There is also a difference in how cases are looked at if autopsies are done to determine the actual cause of death. Which it seems very few countries are doing. And by doing that you are going to end up with a difference in statistics. Only a buffoon will argue otherwise 

Only a buffoon would argue about something he doesn't know about.

You don't know if autopsies are being performed on all the cases.
You don't know how the deaths are being recorded.

You're simply guessing.

I have simply stated, the number of deaths are now rising in Germany in the same way as they have in all other countries. For whatever reason that increase took longer to get started, but it now has. The number of daily deaths in 10 days or so will be where the UK is at now.

Initially I too hoped there was something 'different' in Germany that could perhaps be learned from.. there isn't. The deaths are coming.

You seem convinced they won't be. We will see.

Edited to add: Hopefully you are right.




 

Edited by BWitcher

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8 minutes ago, iris123 said:

There is also a difference in how cases are looked at if autopsies are done to determine the actual cause of death. Which it seems very few countries are doing. And by doing that you are going to end up with a difference in statistics. Only a buffoon will argue otherwise 

That is correct.

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51 minutes ago, E I Addio said:

No, there was nothing wrong with responding to a post, but you were the one that starting pejoratively about talking about people “crawling out the woodwork” . The question was is necessary to use that sort of term if people disagree with you , and do you not think others perhaps might say the same about you.

I assume by your deflection you don’t wish to answer the question.

You do 'butt in' quite a lot.. 

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14 minutes ago, YerRopes said:

You do 'butt in' quite a lot.. 

I think his real name is Percy Sugden  :o

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1 hour ago, BWitcher said:

There's a difference in terms of numbers tested.

The deaths is now rising as it has with other nations... as said, it was just a little behind.

The figure of 0.5% is still bandied about as the German mortality rate, but that's now up to 1.37%... and rising.

 

Mortality rate calculated against confirmed cases, the tip of the iceberg!

It’s not really the mortality rate at all.

Here’s an interesting perspective on case fatality rates (fatality rate against confirmed cases):

“We know, during an epidemic, people will call every death as though it’s related to Covid-19. But that is not the case,” says Heneghan. “Always, when people look back at the case notes and assign causation, they realise they will have overestimated the case fatality in relation to the disease.”

One example is the H1N1 pandemic of 2009, known as swine flu. Early case fatality rate estimates were inflated by a factor of more than 10. Even 10 weeks into the epidemic, estimates varied widely between countries, coming in between 0.1% and 5.1%. When medics later had a chance to go through case documents and evaluate cases, the actual H1N1 case death rate was far lower, at 0.02%.”

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ

A case fatality rate falling from 5.1% to 0.02%!

The current rate for Covid is 5.4%.

Hmmmm.

Edited by DC2

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Very very unlikely post mortems will be done here, especially if swab test positive. Fear of contamination or spread to pathology staff and the volume will dissuade any PM, even in younger patients where it would be more justified. 

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14 minutes ago, Fenway Bleachers said:

Very very unlikely post mortems will be done here, especially if swab test positive. Fear of contamination or spread to pathology staff and the volume will dissuade any PM, even in younger patients where it would be more justified. 

 

How long would a virus remain contagious in a dead person?

 

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7 minutes ago, DC2 said:

 

How long would a virus remain contagious in a dead person?

 

Patients with the new coronavirus keep the pathogen in their respiratory tract for as long as 37 days, a new study found, suggesting they could remain infectious for many weeks.

Source - Bloomberg

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