Covid-19 Are we being told the truth ?

[DC2 7,714]

9 minutes ago, Blupanther said:

Patients with the new coronavirus keep the pathogen in their respiratory tract for as long as 37 days, a new study found, suggesting they could remain infectious for many weeks.

Source - Bloomberg

 

Would that make the antibody test useless then if not carried out at least five weeks after the last symptom?

Even when the test does become available there will be a five week lag in getting previously positively NHS staff back to work.

[BWitcher 12,453]

40 minutes ago, DC2 said:

 

Mortality rate calculated against confirmed cases, the tip of the iceberg!

It’s not really the mortality rate at all.

Here’s an interesting perspective on case fatality rates (fatality rate against confirmed cases):

“We know, during an epidemic, people will call every death as though it’s related to Covid-19. But that is not the case,” says Heneghan. “Always, when people look back at the case notes and assign causation, they realise they will have overestimated the case fatality in relation to the disease.”

One example is the H1N1 pandemic of 2009, known as swine flu. Early case fatality rate estimates were inflated by a factor of more than 10. Even 10 weeks into the epidemic, estimates varied widely between countries, coming in between 0.1% and 5.1%. When medics later had a chance to go through case documents and evaluate cases, the actual H1N1 case death rate was far lower, at 0.02%.”

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ

A case fatality rate falling from 5.1% to 0.02%!

The current rate for Covid is 5.4%.

Hmmmm.

Yes, I'm aware of all that.

Remember, I've been on the same page as you throughout this whole thing.

All I am saying is, I believe the deaths are going to shoot up in Germany over the next 10 days to levels seen in other countries such as UK, France, Italy etc.

[Blupanther 12,011]

3 minutes ago, DC2 said:

 

Would that make the antibody test useless then if not carried out at least five weeks after the last symptom?

Even when the test does become available there will be a five week lag in getting previously positively NHS staff back to work.

I believe the guy that ripped Peston a new one the other day said 28 days ...

[DC2 7,714]

1 minute ago, BWitcher said:

Yes, I'm aware of all that.

Remember, I've been on the same page as you throughout this whole thing.

All I am saying is, I believe the deaths are going to shoot up in Germany over the next 10 days to levels seen in other countries such as UK, France, Italy etc.

 

Yes, you could be right.

On deaths Germany is exactly a week behind us.

Perhaps I should not have expected their figures and timescale to coincide with ours and France’s.

[BWitcher 12,453]

36 minutes ago, DC2 said:

 

Yes, you could be right.

On deaths Germany is exactly a week behind us.

Perhaps I should not have expected their figures and timescale to coincide with ours and France’s.

I think we've both been guilty of looking for signs this thing is easing of.. 

It isn't yet. In 10-14 days it may (hopefully) start to do so.

It's still being exaggerated by including all deaths, not just those FROM covid-19... and most importantly.. a pretty mild flu season is giving it a greater impetus.

[E I Addio 12,196]

2 hours ago, BWitcher said:

They're testing positive for Covid-19.. just the Sun and many others continue to call it corona virus.

Huff Post now saying the hospitals are “losing the fight “ against Corona virus. The news media go from bad to worse. 

[DC2 7,714]

1 hour ago, BWitcher said:

I think we've both been guilty of looking for signs this thing is easing of.. 

It isn't yet. In 10-14 days it may (hopefully) start to do so.

It's still being exaggerated by including all deaths, not just those FROM covid-19... and most importantly.. a pretty mild flu season is giving it a greater impetus.

 

Italy seems to be coming down from the peak and we seem to be closing on a week behind them now rather than two.

Regarding Flu and its often quoted figures of 0.1% for death rate and 17,000 average annual deaths, 17 million people a year must get it in the UK despite maybe 20 million being vaccinated against it.

Coronavirus is said to be more infectious than Flu but nowhere has it been said that it will infect 17 million.* It’s thought to be likely to infect 1% to 3%, being up to 2 million, and killing maybe 1%, 20,000, although the current figures in Sweden suggest it could be approaching 40,000 without special measures, which puts it on par with a bad flu year.

 

* save for Ferguson’s original modelling

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by DC2

[Fenway Bleachers 1,795]

1 hour ago, DC2 said:

 

How long would a virus remain contagious in a dead person?

 

We don’t know yet with corona. Govt advice is not to embalm or perform a PM in case of infection risk.  Things like Ebola and hepatitis viruses are a real worry for those who handle and prepare the dead. Such queries always used to be mandatory on the old cremation forms to alert undertakers. 
It’s likely corona would linger long enough in body fluids to be a real risk for anyone post death 

[DC2 7,714]

 

It’s surprising to read a medical expert in the Guardian today basing his current view on this discredited hypothesis:

“The maths wasn’t difficult: working off their figures [the government’s modelling], about 40 million people in the UK would be infected by coronavirus, and between 200,000 and 400,000 would eventually die .... and showed that 30% of people admitted to hospital ended up in intensive care ..”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/matt-hancock-government-policy-herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19

We have found out that only 22% of those with the most serious symptoms have been infected.

And there is no evidence in any country that two-thirds of the population has been infected and that any where near 200,000 will die (although this figure has been mentioned in America which has five times our population).

He also says that there is no sign that coronavirus is seasonal despite it showing signs of slowing and despite it not (apparently ) taking hold in warmer countries.

[Bald Bloke 1,966]

5 hours ago, BWitcher said:

Wasn't he already in hospital with heart failure?

Yep

[Bald Bloke 1,966]

1 hour ago, DC2 said:

 

Italy seems to be coming down from the peak and we seem to be closing on a week behind them now rather than two.

Regarding Flu and its often quoted figures of 0.1% for death rate and 17,000 average annual deaths, 17 million people a year must get it in the UK despite maybe 20 million being vaccinated against it.

Coronavirus is said to be more infectious than Flu but nowhere has it been said that it will infect 17 million. It’s thought to be likely to infect 1% to 3%, being up to 2 million, and killing maybe 1%, 20,000, although the current figures in Sweden suggest it could be approaching 40,000 without special measures, which puts it on par with a bad flu year.

 

 

Being 56 and diagnosed with COPD 3 years ago. I'm  with a lung age of 91 and my lungs are 53%.. I'd rather flu than Covid any day of the week. This covid seems to be harsh on anyone with bad lungs.I've had a second notice within a week, telling me to not leave the house for at least 12 weeks

Edited April 3, 2020 by Bald Bloke

[DC2 7,714]

 

It looks like nearly 25% (1,400 people) of France’s deaths are in Care Homes.

We should really have learnt from Italy from the outset that they should have been put into isolation immediately.

 

[DC2 7,714]

8 minutes ago, Bald Bloke said:

Being 56 and diagnosed with COPD 3 years ago. I'm  with a lung age of 91 and my lungs are 53%.. I'd rather flu than Covid any day of the week. This covid seems to be harsh on anyone with bad lungs

 

Did you have the flu vaccine in October?

 

[Bald Bloke 1,966]

8 minutes ago, DC2 said:

 

Did you have the flu vaccine in October?

 

Yes. For the last 40 years. Have asthma too.

I used to suffer before the flu jabs, but since then, I've been pretty good. 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Bald Bloke

[Tsunami 9,282]

24 minutes ago, Bald Bloke said:

Being 56 and diagnosed with COPD 3 years ago. I'm  with a lung age of 91 and my lungs are 53%.. I'd rather flu than Covid any day of the week. This covid seems to be harsh on anyone with bad lungs.I've had a second notice within a week, telling me to not leave the house for at least 12 weeks

Same as me.