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The White Knight

European Union - In Or Out?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Humphrey Appleby said:

No, Brexit was on 31 January 2020.

Do we really have to go over this again and again? Go and Google it - there's plenty of references including the ONS.

Of course some of it was down to COVID, but the EU's economy only contracted by 7% during the comparable period. So it's perfectly reasonable to say that Brexit was responsible for this additional 3% contraction even before leaving the Single Market, and it's on the official record that it contracted by a further 3% in January. 

I have Googled it, which is why I asked the question. It doesn’t support your contention that there has been a 10% contraction since Brexit or to be more precise fully attributable to Brexit. However you seem to have answered the point in your above post

Philip Risings point was that a 7-8% growth this year. As you are now saying it’s reasonable to attribute only a 3% of the overall contraction due to Brexit, then considering the way the economy has been tanked by Covid and we wont be fully unlocked until halfway through the year then all things considered a recovery of around 7-8 % if Mr Johnson’s road map proves to be irreversible must be good news, which one would anticipate would continue if no other unforeseen events arise ( although that is of course always possible)

Edited by E I Addio

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14 hours ago, E I Addio said:

I have Googled it, which is why I asked the question. It doesn’t support your contention that there has been a 10% contraction since Brexit or to be more precise fully attributable to Brexit.

Philip Risings point was that a 7-8% growth this year. As you are now saying it’s reasonable to attribute only a 3% of the overall contraction due to Brexit, then considering the way the economy has been tanked by Covid and we wont be fully unlocked until halfway through the year then all things considered a recovery of around 7-8 % if Mr Johnson’s road map proves to be irreversible must be good news, which one would anticipate would continue if no other unforeseen events arise ( although that is of course always possible)

I guess you didn't Google very far then...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/coronavirusandtheimpactonoutputintheukeconomy/december2020

I'll make the sums simple for you though...

If the economy was worth 2,172 billion pounds at the end of 2019, a 10% decline during 2020 (7% due to COVID and 3% due to Brexit) equates to GBP 1,955 billion (2,172 x 0.9)

GDP fell by a further 3% during Q1 2021, so that's GBP 1,955 x 0.97 = GBP 1,896 billion, thereby meaning that the UK economy has lost GBP 276 billion since Brexit.

So assuming the economy grows by 7% during 2021 - which is quite honestly a very optimistic forecast - that's GBP 1,896 x 1.07 = GBP 2,029 billion. In other words still GBP 143 billion less than at the end of 2019, representing an overall economic decline of 6.6% in the two years since Brexit. 

Not only not very impressive at all - but still representing one of the biggest economic contractions in the past 300 years. Nothing the Brexiteers should be trumpeting at all, especially after all the claims about 'sunny uplands'. 

Wiping GBP 143 billion off the economy since Brexit also makes the  "211 million we gave to EU each week" look like small change down the back of the sofa. :rolleyes:

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City of London Brexit hit worse than expected, says study:
LONDON (Reuters) - Over 400 financial firms in Britain have shifted activities, staff and a combined trillion pounds ($1.4 trillion) in assets to hubs in the European Union due to Brexit, with more pain to come, a study from New Financial think tank said on Friday. 

“We think it is an underestimate and we expect the numbers to increase over time: we are only at the end of the beginning of Brexit,” the study said.

The EU has offered Britain little in the way of direct market access for financial services, which were not included in the bloc’s trade deal with the United Kingdom from January.

“That access is unlikely to be forthcoming, so it is perhaps better for the industry to take the damage from Brexit on the chin and focus instead on recalibrating the framework in the UK so that it is more tailored to the unique nature of the UK financial services industry,” the study said.

Some 7,400 jobs have moved from Britain or been created at new hubs in the EU, the study said. Bankers have told Reuters that some staff moves have been delayed due to COVID-19 travel restrictions. The total of 440 relocations is higher than anticipated and well above the 269 in New Financial’s 2019 survey. New Financial believes the real number is well over 500.

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Posted (edited)

I have Googled far enough to know you have done what you always do when confronted by facts that don’t fit your agenda.

I’ ll make it simple for you.

The starting point is your assertion that the economy contracted by 10% in 2020, of which you say 3% was due to Brexit and 7- due to Covid . The estimate of one economist is for growth of 7% , possibly 8% in 2020 , so whether we take the economists assessment that this was impressive growth or your assessment , as a non- economist, that it would be unimpressive, it really makes no difference what adjective is used because in plain language we all know what 10% is and we all know what 7% is , and we all know what 3% is.

Due to lockdown there has been little or no growth in most sectors, the growth has to be achieved from now onwards , ie over 8 months which is more impressive than 7or 8% over 12 months . You have also failed to take into account that on present expectations the growth will continue into 2022 so in time the expectation is that this difficult spell will pass. 
 

Also:-

1. Over 30 million people have received their first dose of vaccine in the UK this is far, far ahead of the EU. The OECD described vaccine roll out and production as “ The best economic policy available today to boost growth and job creation “  (source  OECD economic forecast March 21st 2021)

2.Household savings grew by £125 billion more than might otherwise have been expected between March and December . Consumer confidence is now at its highest since Feb 2020 and a spending boom is anticipated as lockdown is eased (Source : Bank of England monetary policy committee. March 2021)

3.There is evidence of growing confidence in the Housing Market. There were 40% more mortgage approvals in January 2021 than January2020. (Source. . House of Commons library)

4. Household debt has not increased  since mid - 2017 despite adverse economic factors : Source House of Commons Library.

5.Real GDP projections for 2021 by the OECD put the UK eighth in the World on 5.1% for 2021 and 5th for 2022 on 4.7% . This compares with the Euro area projections of only3.9% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022.  In fact the forecast for 2022 even outstrips the total average for all the G20 countries ( Source :OECD Economic Outlook Report, March 2021)

I could go on but you get the point. We all know you are barely able to draw breath without something  negative to say about the UK , but as far as anyone can see into the future the indicators are for recovery, that compares favourably with what is happening elsewhere in the world. 
 

Instead of coming back with ifs and buts and maybes based on your crystal ball why not wait until the end of the year and see what really happens?
 

 

Edited by E I Addio
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28 minutes ago, E I Addio said:

I have Googled far enough to know you have done what you always do when confronted by facts that don’t fit your agenda......

I could go on ....

 

Could?  Come on, Addio, we know you will.  :D :D

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, E I Addio said:

1. Over 30 million people have received their first dose of vaccine in the UK this is far, far ahead of the EU. The OECD described vaccine roll out and production as “ The best economic policy available today to boost growth and job creation “  (source  OECD economic forecast March 21st 2021)

I've no idea what this has to do with economic growth figures, quite aside from the fact that the government is now claiming that lockdowns rather than vaccinations are responsible for reductions in COVID cases. Until there's a very clear and irrevocable path to removing all restrictions, the rest is all pretty irrelevant. 

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4. Household debt has not increased  since mid - 2017 despite adverse economic factors : Source House of Commons Library.

National debt has increased massively though, and will need to be serviced. 

Quote

5.Real GDP projections for 2021 by the OECD put the UK eighth in the World on 5.1% for 2021 and 5th for 2022 on 4.7% . This compares with the Euro area projections of only3.9% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022.  In fact the forecast for 2022 even outstrips the total average for all the G20 countries ( Source :OECD Economic Outlook Report, March 2021)

It's all forecasts, but even if you want to believe them, the UK is already starting from a lower base and will still end up quite far behind the EU despite growing at a quicker rate, based on the above figures. If you've fallen further, then you need to climb higher to get level with everyone else. 

Quote

I could go on but you get the point. We all know you are barely able to draw breath without something  negative to say about the UK , but as far as anyone can see into the future the indicators are for recovery, that compares favourably with what she happening elsewhere in the world. 

No different from the Brexiteers constantly trying to put a positive spin on the economic disaster they're instigated, despite the fact that the cold hard figures say otherwise. And a significant proportion of the decline in the economy in the past 16 months is clearly attributable to Brexit however much you may try to spin otherwise.

Yes, of course both the UK and EU economies are going to recover very quickly as they come out of COVID, because they fell so far so quickly for artificial rather than underlying structural reasons. But it looks like the UK economy is still going to be 3-5% lagging behind the EU, which is because Brexit and exactly as predicted by Remainers. More to the point, a 3-5% recession in the UK economy itself represents a severe one, and far from the sunny uplands that were promised post-Brexit. 

Edited by Humphrey Appleby
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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, E I Addio said:

You can post all the figures you want, but unless you can find one showing the UK economy growing by an unprecedented (and basically impossible) 14% during 2021, it'll still be lagging behind where it was at the end of 2019. :rolleyes:

Edited by Humphrey Appleby
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57 minutes ago, Humphrey Appleby said:

You can post all the figures you want, but unless you can find one showing the UK economy growing by an unprecedented (and basically impossible) 14% during 2021, it'll still be lagging behind where it was at the end of 2019. :rolleyes:

Putting a:rolleyes: at the end of a post doesn’t turn a non point into a sensible one. Nobody has suggested that the economy is not lagging behind where it was in 2019. The economy has been tanked by a pandemic since then.

 

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2 minutes ago, E I Addio said:

Putting a:rolleyes: at the end of a post doesn’t turn a non point into a sensible one. Nobody has suggested that the economy is not lagging behind where it was in 2019. The economy has been tanked by a pandemic since then.

 

It’s also been tanked by Brexit for many of us...

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Posted (edited)

Unless the brexit deal is ratified in the next 2 weeks, we are back to WTO.

This means the UK leaves the EU with No Deal, in breach of WTO rules (not fully checking imports from the EU) and open to trade sanctions from the rest of the world. And that's before mentioning what the irretrievable breakdown of an international peace treaty might lead to.

But it’s what the brexit leave voters wanted, isn’t it? 
 

Edited by Steve Shovlar
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1 hour ago, Humphrey Appleby said:

 

National debt has increased massively though, and will need to be serviced. 

It's all forecasts, but even if you want to believe them, the UK is already starting from a lower base and will still end up quite far behind the EU despite growing at a quicker rate, based on the above figures. If you've fallen further, then you need to climb higher to get level with everyone else. 

No different from the Brexiteers constantly trying to put a positive spin on the economic disaster they're instigated, despite the fact that the cold hard figures say otherwise. And a significant proportion of the decline in the economy in the past 16 months is clearly attributable to Brexit however much you may try to spin otherwise.

Yes, of course both the UK and EU economies are going to recover very quickly as they come out of COVID, because they fell so far so quickly for artificial rather than underlying structural reasons. 

As always, when confronted with facts you can’t argue with you start lashing round try to find some other issue , nothing to do with the original point of discussion . However :-

1. The National Debt has been increasing for the more than 200 years. Don’t worry about, the Government will just borrow off itself and print some more to pay for it. That’s what normally happens. Just as well it has little bearing on the point under discussion , which is why proper economists talk about the level of borrowing rather than National Debt.

2. Yes , it’s all forecasts if we want to believe them . Forecasts are all we have to go on without a crystal ball. 
 

3. Rule 4(b)(2) . When you can’t deal with a specific point start lashing out at “ the Brexiteers “ ( all 17 million of them). Unfortunately the point of Phillip Risings post was not  putting a spin on anything , merely pointing out a positive economic forecast, nothing to with whatever economic mess we may or may not be embroiled in. 
 

4. Yes , the UK and EU are expected to recover quickly. Pity you didn’t say that at the outset, instead of throwing up a load of figures challenging the point Phillip Rising was making.

I am going to have to do a Freddie Lindgren now and leave it there, in view of DC2’s gentle hint, as about me going on too long and I always take note of the views of my peers on the forum. :)

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Steve Shovlar said:

Unless the brexit deal is ratified in the next 2 weeks, we are back to WTO.

This means the UK leaves the EU with No Deal, in breach of WTO rules (not fully checking imports from the EU) and open to trade sanctions from the rest of the world. And that's before mentioning what the irretrievable breakdown of an international peace treaty might lead to.

But it’s what the brexit leave voters wanted, isn’t it? 
 

The European Parliament's foreign affairs and trade committees approved the EU-U.K. trade deal Thursday, moving the post-Brexit agreement a step closer to full ratification in the chamber. The trade deal passed with an overwhelming 108 votes in favor, one vote against and four abstentions.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, PHILIPRISING said:

The European Parliament's foreign affairs and trade committees approved the EU-U.K. trade deal Thursday, moving the post-Brexit agreement a step closer to full ratification in the chamber. The trade deal passed with an overwhelming 108 votes in favor, one vote against and four abstentions.

“All progress could be lost, if the UK continues to unilaterally breach the Withdrawal Agreement and the Protocol on Northern Ireland,” said MEP Andreas Schieder, the rapporteur on the file for the foreign affairs committee, from the center-left Socialists & Democrats group. “We look forward to a workable plan on the implementation of the protocol.”

Edited by dj350z
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