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Are We Seeing The Beginning Of The Demise Of The Labour Party

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Just now, steve roberts said:

...it's also full of people living on the bread line and living desperate lives. Hopefully not the forgotten sector of society who are no longer represented by any party despite promises and assurances.

The winning party only has to appeal to 40% or even less of the electorate - so as long as they're doing alright jack - there's not a thing the downtrodden and desperate can do about it. 

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6 minutes ago, steve roberts said:

...it's also full of people living on the bread line and living desperate lives. 

 

But do those people vote?

It seems that the only people who vote with the interests of the “poor” in mind are students and rich Labour London luvvies with a conscience or radical ideals, aka Corbyn followers, and there’s just not enough of them to win an election.

The rest of the population - the voting majority - wants to work, to improve their lives and to be successful and independent rather than to be dragged down by higher taxes and socialist regulations which are perceived to benefit only the feckless underclass.

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Boris is doing a good job at self destruction but nothing seems to stick and many people don’t seem to care.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, DC2 said:

The rest of the population - the voting majority - wants to work, to improve their lives and to be successful and independent rather than to be dragged down by higher taxes and socialist regulations which are perceived to benefit only the feckless underclass.

Until of course they get ill, or lose their jobs because of some pandemic. Then of course they expect to be bailed out…

The current government has been the most socialist in generations, spending money it apparently didn’t have 10 years ago with abandon.

Edited by Humphrey Appleby
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.................and mobilised an entire network of Covid 19 vaccination centres to enable the entire UK population access to vaccine.

TBH not sure I could see  any of the other political leaders managing this .......... oppostion leader Starmer, and local mayors  Sturgeon and Drakeford, and the Irish lady (can't remember her name) . All  good with words but lacking in action.

 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Humphrey Appleby said:

Until of course they get ill, or lose their jobs because of some pandemic. Then of course they expect to be bailed out…

The current government has been the most socialist in generations, spending money it apparently didn’t have 10 years ago with abandon.

Borrowing down to necessity of course with its chosen response to Covid.

Middle England should follow the example at today’s ridiculously low interest rates and borrow hundreds of thousands to finance buy to lets, ready to ride the capital appreciation that is inevitable over the next five years.

Five year fixes at 1.29% and net rental returns at 5%!

50% capital appreciation over the last ten years despite Brexit and Covid, about half of what one might have expected otherwise, showing the impending boom.

Edited by DC2

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1 minute ago, DC2 said:

Borrowing down to necessity of course with its chosen response to Covid.

Middle England should follow the example at today’s ridiculously low interest rates and borrow hundreds of thousands to finance buy to lets, ready to ride the capital appreciation that is inevitable over the next five years.

Five year fixes at 1.29% and net rental returns at 5%!

Not sure about that.

Interest rates have been low for years, but the buy-to-let sums never really added for me unless you'd inherited or happened to find a depressed area that was up-and-coming. With changes to council tax, effective reduction in tax relief, increasing council and college restrictions on students living out, and proposals for wealth taxes to pay for COVID - plus of course if interest rates go up -  then people could well get burned. 

And for capital appreciation to happen, someone needs to be prepared to buy all the properties. I agree property prices have confounded wage rises for years, but I do feel house prices are beyond many now, and the Bank of Mum and Dad is not bottomless. There's a whole generation of current retirees who've done well out of exponential property prices, but where is the next generation coming from to bankroll their childrens' property prices?

I notice in our area of the UK, houses are generally not fetching anything like what they did 5 years ago, even though there's a very strong rental market. And in Brisbane where I live, property prices has been fairly static for a number of years, if not actually gone down in some places. That's due to a over-supply of new builds and renters basically being able to name their prices, which is why some bargains could be picked up as buy-to-letters got out before the perceived crash.

The whole thing really seems to be propped up by negative gearing, and it'll only take a small shock and the whole thing will come tumbling down - as indeed it already has in some markets. In fact up in Darwin, people have been accepting 50% less for what they bought their properties for, and when they cost AUD 1.5 million to buy new, that's a huge hit to take. 

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4 minutes ago, Humphrey Appleby said:

Not sure about that.

Interest rates have been low for years, but the buy-to-let sums never really added for me unless you'd inherited or happened to find a depressed area that was up-and-coming. With changes to council tax, effective reduction in tax relief, increasing council and college restrictions on students living out, and proposals for wealth taxes to pay for COVID - plus of course if interest rates go up -  then people could well get burned. 

And for capital appreciation to happen, someone needs to be prepared to buy all the properties. I agree property prices have confounded wage rises for years, but I do feel house prices are beyond many now, and the Bank of Mum and Dad is not bottomless. There's a whole generation of current retirees who've done well out of exponential property prices, but where is the next generation coming from to bankroll their childrens' property prices?

I notice in our area of the UK, houses are generally not fetching anything like what they did 5 years ago, even though there's a very strong rental market. And in Brisbane where I live, property prices has been fairly static for a number of years, if not actually gone down in some places. That's due to a over-supply of new builds and renters basically being able to name their prices, which is why some bargains could be picked up as buy-to-letters got out before the perceived crash.

The whole thing really seems to be propped up by negative gearing, and it'll only take a small shock and the whole thing will come tumbling down - as indeed it already has in some markets. In fact up in Darwin, people have been accepting 50% less for what they bought their properties for, and when they cost AUD 1.5 million to buy new, that's a huge hit to take. 

 

I guess I can speak only for my area over the last 60 years.

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I'm not particularly political but a few things interest me about the current situation.

Vaccination programme has definitely helped Boris but a bigger factor could be Postal Voting.

I had a few leaflets from Tories, Labour and Greens, nothing from LD's surprisingly in Sutton Coldfield wards

What we had in our Street was continual door knocking from Tories for both Council and West Midlands Mayoral Elections and every time armed with and pushing Postal Vote Forms in your face.

This isn't illegal I believe and other parties did it in 2019 GE Campaign but it can be very intimidating and would be for older Traditional Tory voters.

Is it just a case they got the (postal) vote out.

Split of post and person voting would be very interesting to see.

 

 

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Just now, DC2 said:

I guess I can speak only for my area over the last 60 years.

It will be different from area-to-area and if it works for you then that's great. But I don't think it's necessarily the cash cow that it's made out to be, and the old investment adage of "when everyone climbs on the same bandwagon, it's time for you to get off" is applicable... :D

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49 minutes ago, DC2 said:

 

But do those people vote?

It seems that the only people who vote with the interests of the “poor” in mind are students and rich Labour London luvvies with a conscience or radical ideals, aka Corbyn followers, and there’s just not enough of them to win an election.

The rest of the population - the voting majority - wants to work, to improve their lives and to be successful and independent rather than to be dragged down by higher taxes and socialist regulations which are perceived to benefit only the feckless underclass.

...like those that didn't bother voting during the EU Referendum and then complain about the result!

However the people I work with despite many having degrees 'earn' the minimum wage and are living in shared accomodation  with no hope of owning their own property. It's easy just to use generalisms but there are many who wish to get on but the opportunities are limited for many.

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4 minutes ago, Humphrey Appleby said:

It will be different from area-to-area and if it works for you then that's great. But I don't think it's necessarily the cash cow that it's made out to be, and the old investment adage of "when everyone climbs on the same bandwagon, it's time for you to get off" is applicable... :D

Hmmm .... I think you’ll find B2L is currently unfashionable due to the loss of mortgage interest relief for higher taxpayers and the additional 3% SDLT levy but for those earning £25k to £50k in Swindon, particularly if they have low mortgaged own homes, it’s a give away for the next five years and many in their 50s could boost their pension pots by £250k.

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50 minutes ago, Humphrey Appleby said:

Until of course they get ill, or lose their jobs because of some pandemic. Then of course they expect to be bailed out…

The current government has been the most socialist in generations, spending money it apparently didn’t have 10 years ago with abandon.

Tell Tsunami for us.

Thanks, 

The rest of the BSF.

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3 hours ago, DC2 said:

Who is it that Labour needs to appeal to?

Presumably Brexit appealed to people’s prejudices, fears, anti-establishmentism and nationalism, and nowhere more so than in the north?

Should Labour do something about those concerns or merely return its focus to people’s economic well-being?

Clearly from the election results over the last forty years there are insufficient oppressed working class workers and unionists for Labour to rely on that traditional support.  And a high percentage of an underclass that does not vote.

So rather than being Corbyn’s idealistic party for the down-trodden that seeks to redistribute wealth, Labour needs to have a positive vision for the majority of voters who seek an aspirational Britain.

That’s the message that Boris gives, particularly for “levelling up” the north.

All parties need to appeal to people like more for a start - people who don't have a wing and haven't made their mind up who they will vote for and often don't until the few days before polling day.

I also honestly believe that who is leader makes a lot of difference in attracting the floating voters. Boris is a popular personality, and a lot of the Tory swing is down to people liking him. Labour need a leader that people like. Kier Starmer is not the person. He was a misguided choice by the party, who probably believed that a former barrister called "sir" was what Labour needed. It's not. they need someone with popular appeal. Neither Corbyn or Starmer have that.

If Labour could find a "Boris", they'd be halfway there straight away. I don't think Lisa Nandy is that person, but of all the leadership candidates she is the one who comes across best in my eyes.

Apparently they had a Remain candidate in Hartlepool as well. They need to forget Brexit now. It's done. It's over. There shouldn't even be such thing as a Remain candidate any more.

 

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13 minutes ago, Grachan said:

Apparently they had a Remain candidate in Hartlepool as well. They need to forget Brexit now. It's done. It's over. There shouldn't even be such thing as a Remain candidate any more.

Are they not, Remain in the Past Candidates?

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