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Covid-19 Are we being told the truth ?

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20 minutes ago, DC2 said:

I still don’t get how it makes sense that you could sit in a pub for three hours with your elderly mum and dad (or anyone else) and 100 strangers but you can’t see them at home in a far less risky setting.

Not that anywhere is particularly risky with about 3 in 1,000 people infected in Swindon.

 

If ALL households consisted of you, your Mum and your dad I.e. 3 people, I’d agree with you 100%. Sadly there are too many people that would pack their houses with folk from all over with no controls. At least pubs (good ones anyway) are a controlled environment.

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Just now, Star Lady said:

If ALL households consisted of you, your Mum and your dad I.e. 3 people, I’d agree with you 100%. Sadly there are too many people that would pack their houses with folk from all over with no controls. At least pubs (good ones anyway) are a controlled environment.

Pubs aren’t a controlled environment at all. All of the measures are superficial and next to useless to stop an airborne virus.

How can you say that 100 people in a pub is less risky than 2, 4 or 10 in a house?

 

 

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So why didn’t the circuit breaker work in tier 3 areas... Lockdowns don’t work maybe !!!

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3 minutes ago, DC2 said:

Pubs aren’t a controlled environment at all. All of the measures are superficial and next to useless to stop an airborne virus.

How can you say that 100 people in a pub is less risky than 2, 4 or 10 in a house?

 

 

It depends on the size of the pub. The one I’m familiar with is very well controlled. Good ventilation, one way system, table service, tables well spaced etc. There will be some that are not, I accept that. Do you accept that some people will bend the meeting indoors and invite people over the guideline limits. 

You can make a worst case scenario for all eventualities, by refusing to accept there are good and bad in all situations you dilute your argument.

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1 hour ago, Star Lady said:

It depends on the size of the pub. The one I’m familiar with is very well controlled. Good ventilation, one way system, table service, tables well spaced etc. There will be some that are not, I accept that. Do you accept that some people will bend the meeting indoors and invite people over the guideline limits. 

You can make a worst case scenario for all eventualities, by refusing to accept there are good and bad in all situations you dilute your argument.

But can’t you see that transmission, particularly aerosol transmission, will not be countered by the pub measures that you mention?

Anyone concerned about the virus should not be going to the pub.

So the government is behaving irresponsibly by misleading the over Seventies into believing that they are safe in pubs, just as they did with supermarkets.

It would make far more sense for the government to tell over Seventies that they would be far safer enjoying a drink at home with three or four friends whom they trusted to be responsible rather than having no alternative but to meet those friends* in a pub filled with 100 irresponsible strangers.

It’s a stupid and irresponsible rule.

* actually Tier 2 does not allow you to meet your friends (whom you might trust) in a pub, but you can sit there surrounded by 100 strangers!

Edited by DC2

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Mid December target for Sweden to peak

The spread of infection in Sweden may reach a peak in mid-December, according to the Public Health Agency's new calculations.

The scenario requires the population to comply with current restrictions.

- It is based on the fact that we have a good compliance in society, otherwise we get a worse development, says CEO Johan Carlson.

The Swedish Public Health Agency is now presenting a scenario that extends until March 2021, and which shows that Sweden will reach the culmination of the second wave of infection in mid-December.

- The plateau depends extremely much on how we continue to keep our distance from each other. The model suggests that we will continue to spread the infection for a few weeks before it is broken, but it depends on how we keep the advice and restrictions that exist, says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.

If today's restrictions are not complied with, it is possible that the culmination will come later than calculated. The opposite is true if, for example, local councils, and the rule that limits gatherings to eight people, have a greater effect than expected.

- It is a mathematical model that requires that we get a full impact of the measures taken, says Johan Carlson.

The infection curve near a peak

The agency's calculation applies to all age groups in Sweden, and is based on the reported covid cases between 24 August and 6 November 2020.

Already during Tuesday's press conference, Anders Tegnell pointed out that the infection curve can be close to a peak.

The increased test capacity in the country to detect more infected. Although around 30,000 new cases were reported for the second week in a row, the increase was not as large as in previous weeks.

- We see that it is possible that there is a certain distance in the increase in infection. But when it translates to calming down in healthcare, we do not know yet. It takes at least two weeks, Tegnell said.

"Optimistic"

The infection control doctor Johan Nöjd in the Uppsala Region tells Expressen that he sees similar tendencies, but that this is not yet reflected in the burden on healthcare in the county. 

- In Uppsala, we have looked at the percentage of infected compared to the number of samples. This summer it was one in a hundred, since then it has climbed fast. But now it has been around 14-15 percent for a while, and if you are optimistic, you can imagine that we have reached the top there, says Nöjd.

Earlier this week, a similar message came from Region Stockholm's chief physician Johan Bratt. 

- The number of newly infected people in the region seems to be flat now the last two weeks. This would then mean that in 10-14 days we will reach a peak, a plateau, when it comes to hospital care. From there, we hope that we can drop down fairly quickly, said the chief physician in SVT's "Aktuellt".

Another 67 deaths reported today

 

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Flu peaks every year in December/January.

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Today’s UK Hospital Covid 19 reported deaths

England   351   39336

Scotland   51  (3639)

Wales  28   (2474)

NI  8  (962)

Tues 422 Wed 445 today 438

Edited by racers and royals

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1 hour ago, Blupanther said:

So why didn’t the circuit breaker work in tier 3 areas... Lockdowns don’t work maybe !!!

R rate is now 0.9 (admittedly as far as I can tell the r rate depends on the roll of a dice as much as science) yet much of the country is under more restrictions than at any time outside of lockdown!

I really would like to know why the areas that have had the most severe restrictions over the longest period still have the most cases. Meanwhile those with the least restrictions continue to have the fewest cases. If you forget the idea of lockdown success being measured against dodgy models and look at the reality there has to be real doubt about the lockdown strategy.

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21 minutes ago, DC2 said:

Flu peaks every year in December/January.

In which country ? In Sweden I guess you are talking about. Can you show me the figures ?

I have the European stats and the peak can be anything from December through to March, and that just in the past few years  

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/influenza-situation-assessment-18-December-2019.pdf

Found a report from a recent year in Sweden

The 2018–2019 season in Sweden was dominated by influenza A and reached a moderate level of intensity. According to several surveillance systems, the season was less intense than the five previous seasons. The epidemic started in the second week of December (week 50) and reached its peak in mid-February (week 6).

Need I go on ? Proved wrong yet again......

Edited by iris123
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2 hours ago, Blupanther said:

Hancock is insane...

 

Same here. Telford has dragged rural Shropshire from 1 to 2. 

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3 minutes ago, iris123 said:

In which country ? In Sweden I guess you are talking about. Can you show me the figures ?

I have the European stats and the peak can be anything from December through to March, and that just in the past few years  

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/influenza-situation-assessment-18-December-2019.pdf

No, principally I was talking about the UK.

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12 minutes ago, Vince said:

R rate is now 0.9 (admittedly as far as I can tell the r rate depends on the roll of a dice as much as science) yet much of the country is under more restrictions than at any time outside of lockdown!

I really would like to know why the areas that have had the most severe restrictions over the longest period still have the most cases. Meanwhile those with the least restrictions continue to have the fewest cases. If you forget the idea of lockdown success being measured against dodgy models and look at the reality there has to be real doubt about the lockdown strategy.

Apparently Manchester has been under restrictions since July.

Working well, aren’t they.  :D

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20 minutes ago, DC2 said:

No, principally I was talking about the UK.

Again the UK had roughly the same flu season as Sweden in 2018/19 and peaked mid February.....I really don't think it worth going on with this

The peak number of outbreaks was observed in week 03 (107 outbreaks) and week 06

2019 (108 outbreaks) with the majority of outbreaks reported in care homes (62.6%

and 57.4%, respectively).

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839350/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf

 

Edited by iris123

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9 minutes ago, iris123 said:

In which country ? In Sweden I guess you are talking about. Can you show me the figures ?

I have the European stats and the peak can be anything from December through to March, and that just in the past few years  

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/influenza-situation-assessment-18-December-2019.pdf

 

So the last three years’ ICU admissions peaked in December twice and January once?

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