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Covid-19 Are we being told the truth ?

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whats the betting fat twit johnson will bring in a national state of emergency as  was discussed on uk column news last friday? this will allow the idiot to deploy the army, also can see masks being made compulsory at all times. indoors and out,

Edited by villageidiot
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14 minutes ago, ruffdiamond said:

Is this new variant of the virus 'the next one'? :blink:

Uncle Bill said the next one would get our full attention...:)

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Latest report 

 
Pfeil nach rechts

3.5% infected people needed hospitalisation

 
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1.3% infected people died (start of first wave), at end first wave IFR reduced to 0.8%

 
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Early lockdown reduces mortality more than extending existing lockdown

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-41-rtm/

Edited by iris123

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35 minutes ago, ruffdiamond said:

Is this new variant of the virus 'the next one'? :blink:

No.That'll be Covid 21.

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7 minutes ago, iris123 said:

Latest report 

 
Pfeil nach rechts

3.5% infected people needed hospitalisation

 
Pfeil nach rechts

1.3% infected people died (start of first wave), at end first wave IFR reduced to 0.8%

 
Pfeil nach rechts

Early lockdown reduces mortality more than extending existing lockdown

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-41-rtm/

 

Highly amusing: “We fitted a model ..”

Of course they did.  :D

And despite the ONS stating weekly incidence of Covid such as 1 in 80 (850,000 people) apparently Imperial College’s model predicts a variation of between 4.8% (3.4 million) and 15.4% (10.5 million)

Dear, oh dear!

Summary

We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Among control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number below 1 consistently; introduced one week earlier it could have reduced first wave deaths from 36,700 to 15,700 (95%CrI: 8,900–26,800). Improved clinical care reduced the infection fatality ratio from 1.25% (95%CrI: 1.18%–1.33%) to 0.77% (95%CrI: 0.71%–0.84%). The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (35.9%, 95%CrI: 29.1%–43.4%) than those residing in the community (10.4%, 95%CrI: 9.1%–11.5%). England is still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence to 1st December 2020 between 4.8% (95%CrI: 4.4%–5.1%) and 15.4% (95%CrI: 14.9%–15.9%) of the population. Imperial College.

 

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It looks like the ONS’s weekly estimate of Covid cases in the UK is indeed for new cases:

“We estimate incidence by directly measuring when a participant in our study who has previously tested negative subsequently tests positive, and comparing this with the number of participants who remain negative.”

That would give a figure of about 3 million in November alone.

Why are the ONS and Imperial College miles apart in their estimates?

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2 hours ago, villageidiot said:

whats the betting fat twit johnson will bring in a national state of emergency as  was discussed on uk column news last friday? this will allow the idiot to deploy the army, also can see masks being made compulsory at all times. indoors and out,

...yes I can see that being the case. Sooner rather than later.

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20 minutes ago, steve roberts said:

...yes I can see that being the case. Sooner rather than later.

Thing is tho, for a long time this planet has supported life through sunlight, air and moisture. Man can't argue with that, if the planet can't keep on providing that support,,, maybe it is time to leave?

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3 minutes ago, ruffdiamond said:

Thing is tho, for a long time this planet has supported life through sunlight, air and moisture. Man can't argue with that, if the planet can't keep on providing that support,,, maybe it is time to leave?

And Co2, the gas of all life on Earth...:)

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2 minutes ago, Blupanther said:

And Co2, the gas of all life on Earth...:)

Simple solution to that. Ban Sprouts:rofl:

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1 hour ago, DC2 said:

Why are the ONS and Imperial College miles apart in their estimates?

because the ONS do their own maths while Mr Ferguson has unicorns doing his?

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2 hours ago, DC2 said:

 

Highly amusing: “We fitted a model ..”

Of course they did.  :D

And despite the ONS stating weekly incidence of Covid such as 1 in 80 (850,000 people) apparently Imperial College’s model predicts a variation of between 4.8% (3.4 million) and 15.4% (10.5 million)

Dear, oh dear!

Summary

We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Among control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number below 1 consistently; introduced one week earlier it could have reduced first wave deaths from 36,700 to 15,700 (95%CrI: 8,900–26,800). Improved clinical care reduced the infection fatality ratio from 1.25% (95%CrI: 1.18%–1.33%) to 0.77% (95%CrI: 0.71%–0.84%). The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (35.9%, 95%CrI: 29.1%–43.4%) than those residing in the community (10.4%, 95%CrI: 9.1%–11.5%). England is still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence to 1st December 2020 between 4.8% (95%CrI: 4.4%–5.1%) and 15.4% (95%CrI: 14.9%–15.9%) of the population. Imperial College.

 

Isn't the variation regional ? Surely there are regional differences. I see different regions are in different Tiers. I see in Germany wide variations in regions. Think recently Sachsen or maybe it was Sachsen Anhalt had an excess mortality of around 46% !!!! Whilst other regions had around 10%......Even if we look at Sweden there are wide regional variations. But you seem to be using that variation and coming up with a nationwide figure :unsure:

Aktuell zählt Risklayer 32.024 Fälle von Corona-Infektionen in Deutschland (Stand 24.03.2020). (Bild: James Daniell, KIT/Risklayer)

Edited by iris123

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2 hours ago, iris123 said:

Latest report 

 
Pfeil nach rechts

3.5% infected people needed hospitalisation

 
Pfeil nach rechts

1.3% infected people died (start of first wave), at end first wave IFR reduced to 0.8%

 
Pfeil nach rechts

Early lockdown reduces mortality more than extending existing lockdown

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-41-rtm/

Sorry Imperial college has the Fergonomics as it’s modelling abacus....I would toss a coin and that would be more accurate.

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1 minute ago, Fenway Bleachers said:

Sorry Imperial college has the Fergonomics as it’s modelling abacus....I would toss a coin and that would be more accurate.

Now that is a different argument altogether. And I wouldn't argue. Seems no country has really got it right. In Sweden they were asking why their model got it wrong and under estimated the cases/deaths. In Germany they are wondering why they also let their guard down after coming through the first wave well and are now right up in cases/deaths

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