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Covid-19 Are we being told the truth ?

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21 hours ago, Shrub said:

And no comment from you on the numerous points I made. 

If I remember rightly the 97% came if the R rose to 4, a figure it has never been close to. Why did they include it in the first place? To keep you happy I have just amended the post to say worse case scenario. I have now answered and addressed your questions. Now answer mine.

If you remember there was three variables, the R rate, the vaccine efficiency, and the vaccine take up by population. The example one was based on the R rate 0, the efficiency of about 70% and the made the take-up on vaccines was 67% which was satisfactory in light of our current recovery. Then they changed the R with the result of about 77% take up, and in their worst case increasing the R to about 4 and leaving efficiency again at 70% the number of take up required was 97% which was never going to be acceptable. The examples are just the non experts way of demonstrating what levels we need and their consequences.

Lockdown has and always will play a part in recovery from the virus. A lot of its success depends on the high level of acceptance by the people to comply, and the strength and transferability of the virus. In the case of Florida once again it is not a good example for comparison. You know now the their population density rate is half of ours, it has a warmer climate and we are a lot colder. Not exactly worth a comparison is it to be fair to draw any comparison. iris has difficult explaining the Scandinavian countries to some on here, and those countries are near and together, so how do you think Florida is a fair example for comparison with us. Yes lockdown has financial consequences, which is regretted by everyone, but it is proving once again to be helpful, and especially as the vaccine is now on the scene to create the barrier for it to be active in the body of those who have the common sense to take the vaccine, as was explained to you in the programme with the equation. What alternative is there to the Lockdown.  Are you seriously saying that no Lockdown, and people just allowed to go about their business as if there was nothing wrong and only socially distancing. The infection rate would shoot up, and whilst we have agreed the equation example was the worst case scenario maybe the 4 for the R rate would perhaps not be so stupid as one thought. No rules, do as you want, still go to work, attend the match, open the Theatres and clubs, mass drinking with no remorse. That can only result in massive deaths across the board, NHS not coping, business with no workers and no one to trade with, no essential services and all waiting for the impossible outbreak of 'herd' which might never be achieved. In the current case with Lockdown and vaccine, we can see a future and we can work together to get the country back on its feet, not on it's arse. Your alternative could result the decimation of business's and essential services, but I suppose the dead will die happy according to you.  

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9 hours ago, jrs said:

No worries Steve, we'll get nurse Gladys Emmanuel to come and give you some special treatment. You'll be well rested after that and pain free, but exhausted  :D

That's no way to talk about DC2. :D

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10 hours ago, Humphrey Appleby said:

There are plenty of totalitarian regimes that are incompetent, and in fact incompetence and totalitarianism invariably go hand-in-hand. The trend towards ever more control freakery was evident even before COVID-19, often with tacit agreement on the wider population the grounds of 'improving security'. 

I think it's shocking how governments (not just in the UK) have so easily been able to take away peoples' liberties without barely a murmur, let alone questioning why some measures were effective or necessary. That Labour didn't oppose it doesn't really prove anything - the left, just like the right has the same tendency for control freakery, if not even more so as we see in Scotland and Wales. 

Even if you take a benign view that it's just an inept response to an unfolding (potential) humanitarian disaster, you know lessons still won't be learned. The possibility of global pandemics has been known and studied for decades (and God knows there were enough disaster films in the 70s and 80s about it), and even what sort of specific responses could be made to protect the most vulnerable. For example, there was a study and recommendations made only about 5 years ago with respect to care homes, which was completely ignored when the time came to implement it, and continued to be ignored for months afterwards.

Forgetting of course that the mentioned loss of Freedom and "taking peoples liberties", started a long time before COVID, and was necessary to try and protect the country from ISIS and other fanatics. Stop and Search was introduced to stop knives/gun offences including deaths, but the snowflakes had their day and now Stop and Search has to be a last resort and is questioned at every opportunity. Some losses of freedom and liberties are actually to protect decent folks, but you can't or won't see that do you.

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, Fenway Bleachers said:

Lockdown remains the useless tool of choice. It does not work and is destructive in its effects. A bit like getting rid of a wasps nest by burning the house down. Once started it’s difficult to reverse. 
This is a seasonal respiratory virus, it will all but disappear in the next week or two, and being endemic will return as Winter starts, November being a good bet, just like influenza. Future vaccines to combat changes in spike protein coat will be needed for the vulnerable, a new flurona jab for the over 65s. 
The rest of us should carry on as normal, but governments won’t allow it. 
Let’s have a Winter lockdown every year, from late November to early March, close schools , shut businesses, print money . 
You know it makes (no)sense. 

Yep. All that to look forward to but only after the war against it has been won with Social distancing, washing hands, wearing masks, Lockdown and of course the vaccine to finish the job off. No arguement about it in future being similar to Flu, but only now after the battle has been won.  :D A bit like an ingrown toenail. Hurts to walk, but after the operation might only need an aspirin. :rofl:

Edited by Tsunami

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1 hour ago, DC2 said:

To be fair, anyone who plays squash at 80 must be in pretty good shape physically.  

Although missing sports has obviously caused mental health issues.  :D

77 if you don't mind and still a league and team player. Not so daft then. :D 

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16 minutes ago, Tsunami said:

77 if you don't mind and still a league and team player. Not so daft then. :D 

Good man! 

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Tsunami on his way to the squash courts...:D

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Tsunami said:

If you remember there was three variables, the R rate, the vaccine efficiency, and the vaccine take up by population. The example one was based on the R rate 0, the efficiency of about 70% and the made the take-up on vaccines was 67% which was satisfactory in light of our current recovery. Then they changed the R with the result of about 77% take up, and in their worst case increasing the R to about 4 and leaving efficiency again at 70% the number of take up required was 97% which was never going to be acceptable. The examples are just the non experts way of demonstrating what levels we need and their consequences.

Lockdown has and always will play a part in recovery from the virus. A lot of its success depends on the high level of acceptance by the people to comply, and the strength and transferability of the virus. In the case of Florida once again it is not a good example for comparison. You know now the their population density rate is half of ours, it has a warmer climate and we are a lot colder. Not exactly worth a comparison is it to be fair to draw any comparison. iris has difficult explaining the Scandinavian countries to some on here, and those countries are near and together, so how do you think Florida is a fair example for comparison with us. Yes lockdown has financial consequences, which is regretted by everyone, but it is proving once again to be helpful, and especially as the vaccine is now on the scene to create the barrier for it to be active in the body of those who have the common sense to take the vaccine, as was explained to you in the programme with the equation. What alternative is there to the Lockdown.  Are you seriously saying that no Lockdown, and people just allowed to go about their business as if there was nothing wrong and only socially distancing. The infection rate would shoot up, and whilst we have agreed the equation example was the worst case scenario maybe the 4 for the R rate would perhaps not be so stupid as one thought. No rules, do as you want, still go to work, attend the match, open the Theatres and clubs, mass drinking with no remorse. That can only result in massive deaths across the board, NHS not coping, business with no workers and no one to trade with, no essential services and all waiting for the impossible outbreak of 'herd' which might never be achieved. In the current case with Lockdown and vaccine, we can see a future and we can work together to get the country back on its feet, not on it's arse. Your alternative could result the decimation of business's and essential services, but I suppose the dead will die happy according to you.  

 

Lockdown waffle.

They have been a disaster and should have been replaced with quarantining the vulnerable.

Vaccines are now doing what lockdowns so completely failed to do.

 

Edited by DC2
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1 hour ago, Tsunami said:

If you remember there was three variables, the R rate, the vaccine efficiency, and the vaccine take up by population. The example one was based on the R rate 0, the efficiency of about 70% and the made the take-up on vaccines was 67% which was satisfactory in light of our current recovery. Then they changed the R with the result of about 77% take up, and in their worst case increasing the R to about 4 and leaving efficiency again at 70% the number of take up required was 97% which was never going to be acceptable. The examples are just the non experts way of demonstrating what levels we need and their consequences.

Lockdown has and always will play a part in recovery from the virus. A lot of its success depends on the high level of acceptance by the people to comply, and the strength and transferability of the virus. In the case of Florida once again it is not a good example for comparison. You know now the their population density rate is half of ours, it has a warmer climate and we are a lot colder. Not exactly worth a comparison is it to be fair to draw any comparison. iris has difficult explaining the Scandinavian countries to some on here, and those countries are near and together, so how do you think Florida is a fair example for comparison with us. Yes lockdown has financial consequences, which is regretted by everyone, but it is proving once again to be helpful, and especially as the vaccine is now on the scene to create the barrier for it to be active in the body of those who have the common sense to take the vaccine, as was explained to you in the programme with the equation. What alternative is there to the Lockdown.  Are you seriously saying that no Lockdown, and people just allowed to go about their business as if there was nothing wrong and only socially distancing. The infection rate would shoot up, and whilst we have agreed the equation example was the worst case scenario maybe the 4 for the R rate would perhaps not be so stupid as one thought. No rules, do as you want, still go to work, attend the match, open the Theatres and clubs, mass drinking with no remorse. That can only result in massive deaths across the board, NHS not coping, business with no workers and no one to trade with, no essential services and all waiting for the impossible outbreak of 'herd' which might never be achieved. In the current case with Lockdown and vaccine, we can see a future and we can work together to get the country back on its feet, not on it's arse. Your alternative could result the decimation of business's and essential services, but I suppose the dead will die happy according to you.  

Thanks for the full and thorough reply!

But I have to say what a load of cobblers! You have conveniently forgotten / ignored the points regarding Florida's more urbanised population, the older demographic, the higher levels of obesity and the higher instances of comorbidities. Roughly an eighth of the state is the Everglades, where only around 500 people live so the population is reasonably dense.The models said the virus would cut a huge swathe through the state if no lockdown was put in place but it didn't. I agree it is hard to compare any area to another but that wasn't my point - I said why isn't the situation being fully debated? Florida has shown that it is possible to fight the virus without resorting to lockdowns. Are you admitting, by the way that it is seasonal when mentioning Florida's warmer weather? 

You admit and regret the colossal financial implications of the lockdown - not your problem though, the kids will have to pay it but make no mention of the thousands of deaths that are occurring and will continue to occur due to lockdown. Just collateral damage?  

The alternative could have been protecting the vulnerable and allowing the rest to keep the country going, as has been discussed on here numerous times but you've always dismissed as impossible to do. Yet Florida did it. It never would have been do nothing as you keep saying the anti-lockdowners wanted. In lockdown world it has resulted in the decimation of businesses, many already don't have workers because they're being paid to stay home and many don't have anyone to trade with because they're deemed non essential and are shut, many will never open again. I very much doubt, though can never be proved , that the country would have collapsed in your domesday scenario of no lockdown . But it did happen in reality with lockdown!

Hopefully the vaccines will get us out of the mess this incompetent government and lockdowns have got us into, along with the natural decline of a seasonal virus. I do find it surprising you still sing the government's praises despite the high death rate and their destruction of the economy - cheering bad news?! I guess being a lifelong Newcastle fan you naturally have low expectations and are easily pleased!

I think we can safely say we will never agree on this subject! 

 

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2 hours ago, Tsunami said:

Forgetting of course that the mentioned loss of Freedom and "taking peoples liberties", started a long time before COVID, and was necessary to try and protect the country from ISIS and other fanatics. Stop and Search was introduced to stop knives/gun offences including deaths, but the snowflakes had their day and now Stop and Search has to be a last resort and is questioned at every opportunity. Some losses of freedom and liberties are actually to protect decent folks, but you can't or won't see that do you.

No I don't, anymore than some can see that blanket lockdowns haven't been very effective. There will always be some excuse out of proportion to the actual threat to keep the plebs in their place. 

"Those who would give up essential liberty for temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety..."

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9 hours ago, Humphrey Appleby said:

 

"Those who would give up essential liberty for temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety..."

When Benjamin Franklin made that quotation ( twice, twenty years apart) the context of “essential “ was something rather more serious than  a lockdown .

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Told ya...

 

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12 minutes ago, Blupanther said:

Told ya...

 

So, all of this is because of a few salad dodgers?,,, probably puts the kibosh on me full english pot noodle enterprise!  :cry:

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Shrub said:

Thanks for the full and thorough reply!

But I have to say what a load of cobblers! You have conveniently forgotten / ignored the points regarding Florida's more urbanised population, the older demographic, the higher levels of obesity and the higher instances of comorbidities. Roughly an eighth of the state is the Everglades, where only around 500 people live so the population is reasonably dense.The models said the virus would cut a huge swathe through the state if no lockdown was put in place but it didn't. I agree it is hard to compare any area to another but that wasn't my point - I said why isn't the situation being fully debated? Florida has shown that it is possible to fight the virus without resorting to lockdowns. Are you admitting, by the way that it is seasonal when mentioning Florida's warmer weather? 

You admit and regret the colossal financial implications of the lockdown - not your problem though, the kids will have to pay it but make no mention of the thousands of deaths that are occurring and will continue to occur due to lockdown. Just collateral damage?  

The alternative could have been protecting the vulnerable and allowing the rest to keep the country going, as has been discussed on here numerous times but you've always dismissed as impossible to do. Yet Florida did it. It never would have been do nothing as you keep saying the anti-lockdowners wanted. In lockdown world it has resulted in the decimation of businesses, many already don't have workers because they're being paid to stay home and many don't have anyone to trade with because they're deemed non essential and are shut, many will never open again. I very much doubt, though can never be proved , that the country would have collapsed in your domesday scenario of no lockdown . But it did happen in reality with lockdown!

Hopefully the vaccines will get us out of the mess this incompetent government and lockdowns have got us into, along with the natural decline of a seasonal virus. I do find it surprising you still sing the government's praises despite the high death rate and their destruction of the economy - cheering bad news?! I guess being a lifelong Newcastle fan you naturally have low expectations and are easily pleased!

I think we can safely say we will never agree on this subject! 

 

Just to be clear :

1. How precisely do you define the vulnerable ?

2. How do you identify them

3. Precisely what measures should be taken to protect them

4. Should the measures taken to protect them be voluntary or legally enforceable? If they are to be legally enforceable how do you frame a law to realistically say , for example, anyone aged 64 years and 364 days is ok but on your 65th birthday you self isolate ? 

5.Since we have only had a vaccine a few , months, what, if any measures, apart from “ protecting” the vulnerable would you have taken, bearing in mind we didn’t even have proper PPE at the outset. 

Frankly, my problem with all of this is I dont see how you can  realistically have a half way house lock down. Either you have one or you don’t.

 

Edited by E I Addio
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Look at these idiots committing suicide...

 

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