Hunters

An interesting comment, I have been a big enthusiast of Kelsey since he was 11 and will never forget his joy at race victories in back to back heats over Baseby and Shanes in 2015. If you are right and he has improved that much then his average should soar this year as leaving Arlington pushed it back a little last year.

Foolish I know to make forecasts before teams are finalised but assuming Belle Vue have the team that has been proposed I believe it will be a league of two halves. Alphabetically Belle Vue, Birmingham, Cradley, Eastbourne, IOW and Mildenhall in the top half and the others in the bottom. At the risk of upsetting some fellow south eastern supporters unless there are some surprises to come I really do not like the look of Lakeside or Kent. Good Friday doubles Lakeside/Eastbourne and Mildenhall/Kent should be very revealing.

I don't know enough about Coles but I have no fears about Kelsey, think he will have a really good year now he is back home and Charley Powell was getting to grips with things as the year went on despite a broken collar bone. He was not my original choice as I wanted Kyle Hughes and a 3 pointer but I am sure Charley will continue to successfully make the conversion from grass this year . My big concern is Mark Baseby who looked useful when here with IOW but certainly not the No 1 we are used to. It could well be our worst NL season because there is such a high standard to live up to but it should still be a good season and don't write off the impact that Tom Brennen will have. You also have to factor in that anyone not earning his keep can be dropped. I think the Spillers will be available in July after Exams. Factor in our home record and we won't need many away points to get in the top 4 and there are some pretty weak teams beginning to developed.

Indeed I did, because Storm are missing this year. He had two good scalps as well, Carr and Perry but the rest of the Cov team looked poor. Wished I had not looked at that match because the performance of Mark Baseby seemed uninspiring. Still going to stick my neck out and say he will be a problem. Hope for your sake I am wrong.

Looking at Stonemans results last year I make him 6.2 so I must have missed something. I have 34 from 23 rides at home and 28 from 17 rides away. His best home was 9 from 4 and away 16 from 6 both against Buxton who had a dire team out that day and got a real hammering. All bar 2 meetings were from reserve and a lot of very straight forward opponents. Could it be the worst signing of the season? Why on earth did they not keep James Shanes? with Bowen, Shanes, Thomas and presumably Hopwood they would have a top four to keep them in the top half running instead of which they are looking like a candidate for the wooden spoon. With a track, Stadium and support like theirs the fans deserve better in my view.

Good Friday is late this year April 14th so I hope this is not the first meeting, I was looking forward to getting started about March 24th.

I thought Stokes was missing this year?

I went a bit further and identified 11 better riders (6.35 upwards) who at this stage look likely non starters for NL and with 1 new one (Boxall) left a combined net shortfall of 84.5 points. Replace with 10 3.0 pointers and the shortfall is 54 or 4.5 per team. This would indicate that only 37.5 are available unless some 'opt outers' change their mind. In this scenario it is certain that some teams will start at least a point under limit probably more. It also means the statement that no rider over 3.0 should miss out is spot on. Of the two teams completed Cradley are 38.90 and Eastbourne 38.27 which lowers the 37.5 availability even further for the other 10 teams. With Birmingham and Mildenhall also certain to be near the limit the situation must be getting pretty dire for the remaining 8. Unless there are some surprises none of us has anticipated I am pretty sure one (or more)will be under 37.

Still think they will realise there are not enough 4 and 5 pointers around and their only hope of having a competitive side is to bring back Shanes. If someone else had grabbed him they would surely have said so.

B Vue 3 Buxton 2 Kent 2 K Lynn 3 Lakes 1 Plym 1 Stoke 3 That is my 15. Possibly 16 with Plymouth 2 . I cant believe any team will go with a sub 6.0 as a heat leader. If they do they are in serious trouble because their are not enough 4 and 5 pointers to use the full 39 points effectively.

I know I will upset Brummie fans but I feel their run is over. Are their top 4 so strong? I have my doubts, JPB spent the year in the reserve slot to get his average, often with extra rides in hand picked heats. This year he will I'm sure take the No 3 jacket from Ritchings which will make maintaining his average more difficult. Bacon and Hulme surprised us all with their improvement last year but you cannot normally do that every year and so they will probably need a year to catch their breath so to speak. Ritchings, well enough said. Success in the league is all about increasing averages. All teams if performing equally should go up by 3 points because they are riding for 42 against 39. I can't see the Brum heat leaders putting on more than that so they will have to find something special in the bottom 3 to stay in the hunt. I know we all like to think our riders are going to be the ones to develop until reality kicks in .

Certainly looks like a side capable of top four with only two question marks for me: Will Mark Baseby be able to compete at No 1? He will hold his own with some but the likes of Bowen, Morley, Williamson & Bewlay may be out of his reach. I suspect Georgie will become no 1 but will have the same problem. Will Adam Extance get over the major knee surgery that kept him out for the last 18 months? Sometimes they come back stronger but often it results in a long period of struggle. Dan Greenwood was a good example last year after his injuries in 2015. I suspect Adam will be in a reserve spot after the first Green Sheet change which should help him regain some confidence.

To be honest I don't think Ritchings would have been in their plans. When it was certain that they would have to drop 3 or 4 from last years seven then Ritchings looked the obvious first out. However there is such a shortage of 4 and 5 point riders that to get a balanced team is difficult and once they could not apparently get Smith then better to bring in Ritchings and have three in the tail rather than four. A lot of teams are coming up against the same problem I think.

Still need approx. 15 Heat Leaders and I can only see 7 so some teams are going to be in Trouble!

Now we are down to one and with Kelsey in we know it will be around the 5 mark. On this forum we are struggling to find a suitable fit but they obviously have it sorted. A 'possible surprise' was stated so I hope we don't have to wait until New Years eve to open our Xmas Present. Glad to see Connor is taking his brother in hand. I have been enthusiastic about Kelsey since he was 11 or 12 and still believe he has great potential, We should see the benefit this coming season as he is maturing.

Not many , your list has 36 and there are still 45 places, a few will not fit averages probably but most will still be there.

Interesting Comment from Connor Dugard . With two more riders to complete the team he says one of them may surprise us. Sounds like they have completed but are keeping us in suspense. Who can it be Jack Smith on 6.32 ? Now that would surprise me and give a few Brummies palpatations.

Very disappointing I suspect because it leaves 5.21 for the No 4 slot and there does not appear to be anybody available in the low 5.0's. Cottham at 4.70 ??. Struggle to make the play off's unless a Herculian performance from young Tom me thinks.

But there are only 3 of them that I can see at 6.5 area Scott Campos Danny Phillips and Jack Smith. We could not get any of them. This team building is a very tricky job this year on 39 poinys.

I think you are right, Kelsey must be a certainty he could get into the 5's next season but that leaves 9.26 and try as I might I cannot see how to use that balance wisely. Might go with Luke Harris at No 7 if we could find a good No 4 on 5.3 but I can't see one. We should not go in a point below limit, It's going to be hard enough cancelling out the advantage of already top heavy teams like Cradley, Mildenhall,Lakeside and IOW. That's why I would pass over both Cottham and Charley Powell.

Richard Andrews to Plymouth, the list of possibilities is diminishing. It is becoming difficult to find a suitable fit.

As I recall the Lakeside licence is only on hold for a year which implies they keep their assets until next years AGM when they may return to the Senior Leagues. If they don't return then they would lose them and come under NL rules of no assets, which is what happened with Eastbourne. I do not recall all the details but I believe Birmingham did not consider a return and simply folded, subsequently deciding to enter the NL. The Brum supporters should have a better memory of this than me. The whole concept of no assets for NL is so wrong to me. There are already 17 of last years NL riders In this years Championship and 6 in the Premiership of which just 3 are double up's between the two. Therefore 20 in all (so far) allowing those leagues to replace expensive foreign imports and reducing their cost base. The NL clubs get no compensation for the efforts and cash they have put in to bring most of these lads on, even though they often struggle to keep their own heads above water. Time I think for the NL to get their own Mike Parker and do their own thing, I helped him at Hackney and he would not have put up with it..

But they already have Tom Brennan so it could well mean 2 of them at reserve which I think is excessive, I would rather have a stronger no 4 and another young reserve. Kelsey 4.26 + 3.00 pointer leaving 6.28 for No 4. Problem is I can only see 3 Candidates, Danny Phillips, Lee Dicken and Lee Smart all of which I suspect are in other peoples plans. We might have to go with what you suggest but if we are going to be a point under the limit we could well have had Kyle Hughes so I can only imagine Martin has dug somebody up who was not around last year.

Well, Eagles No1 certainly got that right. Hope he is right with Kelsey & Ben leaving 3.43 for the last one. Certainly different from last year and looks like it could turn out the most well balanced side in the league but along with that we could be struggling in heat 13 & 15. There are already some very strong combinations being formed, The big question is what are the likely options if they don't get Ben who I suspect is looking at the best part of a dozen offers. I am sure Kelsey will be a shoo-in as he ought to be. His first season average was built on about 5.5 at home and 2.5 away so to nearly maintain it last year away from the track he grew up on was a promising improvement. Include the movement up from reserve to No2 last year highlights the improvement.

This is the first time I have heard of this, do you have any details?