Leicester Lion 274 Posted February 9, 2014 You obviously have no understanding of the concept of probability if that is what u think. Acvording to your logic, my chance of winning the lottery is the same as it is of flipping a head on a single coin toss (it will either happen or not happen). Oh dear. The lottery is purely random and each ball has a certain chance, or probability, of being drawn. The granting of a visa is nothing to do with probability. A visitor applies for a visa. If they satisify the conditions they are granted it. If they don't satisfy the conditions they are not granted it. The officials decide whether the conditions are met. If you seriously believe the officials apply some kind of random element when deciding to grant a visa there is little point in trying to explain this fundamental difference any further. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TMW 533 Posted February 9, 2014 Blimey the start of the season can't come soon enough if you ask me. Now we are squabbling over probabilities !!!!! 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
waiheke1 4,295 Posted February 9, 2014 Oh dear. The lottery is purely random and each ball has a certain chance, or probability, of being drawn. The granting of a visa is nothing to do with probability. A visitor applies for a visa. If they satisify the conditions they are granted it. If they don't satisfy the conditions they are not granted it. The officials decide whether the conditions are met. If you seriously believe the officials apply some kind of random element when deciding to grant a visa there is little point in trying to explain this fundamental difference any further.Why did u state that u cant get 90% of a visa, which has nothing to do with probability? That seemed to indicate confusing likelihood of an event occurring (probability) for the percentage of sn event which occurs.Probability is not confined purely to random elements, but im sure you know that, right? Do you really believe there is no interpretation required as to whethet someone is eligible for a visa? For someone to say that based on known info, doyle has a 90% chance of being granted a visa seems totally I reasonsble. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Leicester Lion 274 Posted February 9, 2014 Why did u state that u cant get 90% of a visa, which has nothing to do with probability? That seemed to indicate confusing likelihood of an event occurring (probability) for the percentage of sn event which occurs. Probability is not confined purely to random elements, but im sure you know that, right? Do you really believe there is no interpretation required as to whethet someone is eligible for a visa? For someone to say that based on known info, doyle has a 90% chance of being granted a visa seems totally I reasonsble. Er, because you can't get 90% of a visa. It was a flippant remark in response to Weatherwatcher's assertion that Doyle has a 90% chance of getting one. You're confusing success rates with probability. They are not the same. Ninety percent of applicants may be successful (I don't know about the accuracy of that figure, but it's the one that has been quoted), but it doesn't mean any particular applicant has a 90% chance. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Big Al 708 Posted February 9, 2014 Er, because you can't get 90% of a visa. It was a flippant remark in response to Weatherwatcher's assertion that Doyle has a 90% chance of getting one. You're confusing success rates with probability. They are not the same. Ninety percent of applicants may be successful (I don't know about the accuracy of that figure, but it's the one that has been quoted), but it doesn't mean any particular applicant has a 90% chance. Spot on! Probability is associated with random-ness. Success rate (in this case anyway) includes the need to meet criteria. I will change my word "chance" to "rate of success". Many thanks and hope this is now finished and we can all go any have a good drink! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lionstigersnotbearsohmy 93 Posted February 9, 2014 Don't suppose anybody knows the probability of any meaningful track changes having taken place before the season starts?.... ;-) 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
waiheke1 4,295 Posted February 9, 2014 Er, because you can't get 90% of a visa. It was a flippant remark in response to Weatherwatcher's assertion that Doyle has a 90% chance of getting one. You're confusing success rates with probability. They are not the same. Ninety percent of applicants may be successful (I don't know about the accuracy of that figure, but it's the one that has been quoted), but it doesn't mean any particular applicant has a 90% chance. Ok it was a fkippant comment, but the same applies to almost anything (eg you can't throw 50% of a head when flipping a coin).Quite awsre of the difference berween success rates and probability, and presumably doyles probability of getting a visa is higher than the generic success rate, which I think was mentionef somewhere on this thread. Probability is not exclusively linked with rsndom events, although events such as flipping a coin you can calculate probability as opposed to estimating probability, as weatherwatcher did. I fundamentally disagree thst doyles chance is either zero or 100, just asI do with those on here who state that where there are two posdible outcomes the chance of either is 50%. Anyway I think thats wasted enough of the Leicester thread! Any views on probability of them finishing bottom Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wandersome 281 Posted February 9, 2014 (edited) Don't suppose anybody knows the probability of any meaningful track changes having taken place before the season starts?.... ;-) On the basis that i trully believe DH thinks the track produced some of the best racing in the UK last year and he told me that the quality of racing for the Cov challenge match vindicated his decision in ignoring pretty much everyone's opinion and sticking with his unique track shape i think it's not happening. No amount of laughing at it by pretty much everyone appears to change his opinion on this, in fact it almost appears to harden his resolve. So my guess is no changes will happen before the season starts. to sum up i think that's about a 90% chance, isn't it?... Mick. Edited February 10, 2014 by volty 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SCB 0 Posted February 9, 2014 Regarding Doyles last 10 EL meetings, I make it 9.04 with bonus and 8.61 without. Thats EL and play-offs. Home and away but it could be 2 home and 8 away or vice versa! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hamish McRaker 601 Posted February 10, 2014 Why has this happened? For what reasons would a visa be declined? So your afternoon nap went on a bit longer than you expected, Colonel? I know the problem only too well. You're not related to that character in Fawlty Towers are you by any chance? Anyway to put you in the picture about what's happened: Australia mercilessly thrashed England 5-0 at cricket. The British government declared war against Australia for this act of hostile aggression. Scotland, Wales and Norn Iron together formed a separate government, because it was nothing to do with them. The English government (although it still called itself and acted as "British Government") realised there are no aircraft carriers, meaning that militiary action against Australia was pointless. Instead, Sir Les Patterson was deported back to Sydney on the first available flight and this seriously affected the export sales of Australian wines. The Borders Agency also started rejecting UK visa applications by Australians, especially from speedway riders with the initials "JD". Hope that's caught you up. Wake me up when the season's started. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TMW 533 Posted February 10, 2014 So your afternoon nap went on a bit longer than you expected, Colonel? I know the problem only too well. You're not related to that character in Fawlty Towers are you by any chance? Anyway to put you in the picture about what's happened: Australia mercilessly thrashed England 5-0 at cricket. The British government declared war against Australia for this act of hostile aggression. Scotland, Wales and Norn Iron together formed a separate government, because it was nothing to do with them. The English government (although it still called itself and acted as "British Government") realised there are no aircraft carriers, meaning that militiary action against Australia was pointless. Instead, Sir Les Patterson was deported back to Sydney on the first available flight and this seriously affected the export sales of Australian wines. The Borders Agency also started rejecting UK visa applications by Australians, especially from speedway riders with the initials "JD". Hope that's caught you up. Wake me up when the season's started. Who gives you the right to bring these comic overtones onto a Leicester thread? Now go somewhere else to ply your trade and leave us to willow in our misery Thank you very much Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TMW 533 Posted February 10, 2014 So your afternoon nap went on a bit longer than you expected, Colonel? I know the problem only too well. You're not related to that character in Fawlty Towers are you by any chance? Anyway to put you in the picture about what's happened: Australia mercilessly thrashed England 5-0 at cricket. The British government declared war against Australia for this act of hostile aggression. Scotland, Wales and Norn Iron together formed a separate government, because it was nothing to do with them. The English government (although it still called itself and acted as "British Government") realised there are no aircraft carriers, meaning that militiary action against Australia was pointless. Instead, Sir Les Patterson was deported back to Sydney on the first available flight and this seriously affected the export sales of Australian wines. The Borders Agency also started rejecting UK visa applications by Australians, especially from speedway riders with the initials "JD". Hope that's caught you up. Wake me up when the season's started. Who gives you the right to bring these comic overtones onto a Leicester thread? Now go somewhere else to ply your trade and leave us to willow in our misery Thank you very much Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lionking 127 Posted February 10, 2014 Somethings don't change Popples interview was terrible he just hasn't got a clue. What is even worse is i hear he will be even more involved next year & to top it off this clown Chris Popple is going to make OUR great club the laughing stock of speedway when the sky camera's come. I hope that Max Clegg has recovered from the Chris Popple experience he received last night. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ukrossifan 77 Posted February 10, 2014 (edited) Somethings don't change Popples interview was terrible he just hasn't got a clue. What is even worse is i hear he will be even more involved next year & to top it off this clown Chris Popple is going to make OUR great club the laughing stock of speedway when the sky camera's come. well that won't happen as the Sky cameras never show or pick up the words of the track announcers/presenters, whether they are good bad or indifferent, from what I've seen Edited February 10, 2014 by hurricanes 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gemini 4,894 Posted February 10, 2014 True. I can't remember ever hearing Peter York's dulcet tones on T.V. when the Sky cameras visit Coventry. Anyway, what has Chris done wrong now? Why was it a terrible interview? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
