Patrick Hansen should be on the short list for a WC if his mechanical/? is taken into account, its probable without that he would have had additional points to his Pardubice tally of 10 and thereby have qualified 3rd or at least been in the run off for it.
I'm an Aussie and would love to see Fricke in the Finals, but 1 heat win from 5 completed rides here and he's had every chance under the system to qualify, so he made need luck or perhaps being defending champ may get him a berth. He's a better rider than 11 points in this company suggests and a big surprise to me to see his scorecard.
You may be right on the Swede: even tho this is titled a World Championship, I'm not convinced that having the best 16 U21 riders is the main intention in this process, if it were - why are countries given allocations that are way above that warranted by the form/competiveness of their riders, eg France, Norway, Czech, Sweden. Poland and Denmark warrant their numbers because of strength in depth but this event often seems a benefit for the European countries/riders to me.