arnieg

Changed your mind yet?

What amuses me is when the rider on the rostrum is under 18 and they still get champagne (well cheap fizzy wine anyway)

Great issue - but what happened to Croatia?

No - if statistically significant it would prove that there are/aren't more injuries. What it wouldn't do is explain why. Constructing a statistical model that tests a 'why' would I think be too difficult (too much random noise, too many subjective judgements), which I think is the jist of the rest of your post with which I do agree.

Oh Shawn!!!! For one who holds such great faith in statistics this is a prime example of their misuse, commiting two cardinal sins: a) too small a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions cherry picking a single example - what if you'd chosen 1993 or 1995?

Bet you a tenner you don't

We are thinking along similar lines - if the hypothesis about faster bikes is correct then those periods when technical changes produced a step change in the speed of racing (e.g. periods when lots of track records got broken) would show higher injury rates. I haven't got any data on laydowns, but I think a case could be made looking at four-valves and the rash of fatalities in the decade that followed.

Statistics are extremely useful, if they are used in context and their limitations are properly understood. Statistics save lives (read the works of Ben Goldacre for numerous examples)

You seem to be confusing anecdote and assertion with evidence. SCB is a fair minded fellow, if you can provide some evidence then I'm sure he would happily accept the theory (which is indeed plausible) that faster bikes are causing more accidents.

I agree entirely with you SCB (and I wrote the article in the Star analysing guests). One of the things that struck me was that Lewis Blackbird was the only rider to miss more than one third of his EL fixtures due to injury.

A very interesting discussion. FWIW I broadly agree with screamer although I also think that SCBs point about a shorter timescale is also valid. In the 1970s there were a whole load of speedway books (Champions Book of Speedway etc) that usually had a chapter entitled 'Stars of Tomorrow' that would highlight future stars like Bobby McNeil, Chris Turner, Malcolm Ballard and Frank Auffret - none of whom went on to become world beaters. I'd say that any prediction based on less than three years of racing is likely to be little better than a guess (unless you are dealing with a Michael Lee, Darcy Ward or Tai Woffinden). Compare Ellis Perks (aged 18) with Tai Woffinden at a similar age. Wuffy was already banging in double figure scores in both the Polish Extaliga and Swedish Elitserien. Perks may turn out to be a very good rider (say on a par with Rory Schlein or Danny King) but it would be hard to rate his prospects as higher than that. [Rory Schlein turned 18 late in 2002 a season in which he averaged 10.96 in the Conference League and over 6 in the PL] Looking at those who've appeared for Team GB in the World Cup since 2006 gives us 11 riders, one of whom (Scott Nicholls) started riding before the Conference League began. The NL/CL careers of the other 10 suggests that to reach international standard a rider should be averaging 8+ in their first season (I've ignored instances where the rider made less than 5 appearances), and 10+ in their second season. Seven riders meet those criteria (I've included Lewis Bridger and Lee Richardson as their one year in the CL produced a 9+ and 11.64 averages respectively) - and three don't (one of whom - Chris Harris - didn't have a second season in the CL) Other riders meet these criteria and still haven't made Team GB: Paul Lee, David Howe, Josh Auty, Chris Neath, Lee Complin (who averaged over 7 in the PL in his second season). [and Australia in the case of Matty Wethers who averaged 9+/10+ in his two CL seasons.] Back to Robert Lambert, he averaged 9.97 as a 15 year old in the NL. I can only find three riders who bettered that at 15: Tai Woffinden... 9.99 Josh Auty ...10.10 (turned 16 late in the season) David Howe .. 11.02 (he scored a 15 point maximum on his debut) [best averages for 16 year olds: Joe Haines 11.40, Ed Kennett 11.30, Woffinden 11.25] Apart from Robert Lambert the other current rider who meets the '8/10 test' is Cam Heeps (9.94 as a 15 year old and 11.18 in year two). Three other current young riders compare well with Danny King and Ben Barker (the two Team GB members with slower starts to their careers): Adam Ellis (8.24/9.73) Kyle Howarth (4.62/7.43/10.50), and Jason Garrity (7.07/9.48/10.45) These figures are used to illustrate the point that you can't tell who will and who won't make it to the top (consider the slow but steady assent of Jason Doyle). The strength of the CL/NL varies from one year to the next for various reasons so averages from one season aren't strictly comparable to another and examining early years in the PL would also give a fuller picture. And if asked to predict I'd expect to see Robert Lambert in the GPs, Kyle Howarth riding for Team GB while Garrity, Ellis and Max Clegg might make Team GB. [Thanks to Malcolm Vasey for providing most of the stats]

We should be thankful nobody in speedway management is so stupid http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-3007539/Karl-Oyston-charged-FA-calling-Blackpool-fan-retard-offensive-text-messages.html And I'm sure if they were the BSPA would act against such appalling behaviour.

Well someone should say it: Bloody good meeting, well organised, congratulations all round - I suspect that an impressive sum was raised.

Jason's got a stalkerJason's got a stalker

the answer to all Darcy's problems: http://popist.com/s/e562190/

Would that include 18.6.4?

Shouldn't you be on your way to Wembley?

What that SCB (and I don't mean the Speedway Control Bureau) knows the rules better than the BSPA

Very helpful and very well organised

I will find it difficult to get to Owlerton much before 5pm on Sunday. As there should be a big crowd I suspect the car park may be full. Can anyone advise me as to best alternatives for parking?

I took in and ate a coronation chicken sandwich last night ...boy I'm such a rebel!!

I agree that it should be cheaper...if you can get the riders to ride for less!

Exciting kiosks! - you get easily excited in Swindon!!! (Whatever happened to Burnt Kiosk our Swedish number one?)

I think Lynn is colder!

At Rory Schlein meeting. Riders presented with a bottle of rum each at start. Presenter to Chris Holder: "bet you'll be looking forward to drinking that?" Holder's response: " nah mate I don't drink"