jenga 2,998 Posted January 29, 2014 lewis kerr for me.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
T.N.T. 355 Posted January 29, 2014 Thought that might be the case, the 2nd string heats will no doubt be similar as previous years, yes I know reserves are weaker but I dont see it making a huge difference to 2nd strings averages overall. The only way it wont make much difference is that once they get a new average they will move up to heat leader and then get harder races so their average will go down again. Richie Worrall, Ryan Fisher, Adam Skornicki. Daniel Nermark, Mikkel Michelsen, Mikkel Bech, Simon Gustafsson and Peter Ljung will all move up to a top three place in their teams during the season ......... then possibly move back down by September !! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
waiheke1 4,295 Posted January 30, 2014 I was concerned about this as the next person but after playing on spreadsheets, I'm happy that it's not going to be a big deal. With a half sensible new heat structure (with EL draft reserves protected), for the main body of the team, the comparative av. CMA of opponents each rider will face during their own programmed will only vary by around +/- 10% per race versus 2013. I have to disagree. If the format is as expected (i.e. reservces entirely protected from heat leaders) then I would expect roughly the following for the “average” rider in each position, expecting a variance of +/- 2 points depending on individual. I’ve given an expected average for each position, and in brackets approximate “starting” average. Number 1: 6 out of 8 points against heat leaders, 4 out of 4 against second strings, two points from heat 15. Expected Average 9.6 (starting 8.30) Number 2: 4 out of 4 points against heat leaders, 3 out of 4 against second strings, one point from heat 15: Average 6.4 (starting 7.3) Number 3: 2 out of 4 points against heat leaders, 3 out of 4 against second strings: Average 5.0 (6.4) Second strings: 0.75 points out of 4 against heat leaders, 2 out of 4 against second strings, 3.5 out of 4 against reserves: Average 6.25 (4.75) Reserves: 0.5 out of 4 against second strings, 4 out of eight against reserves: Average 4.25 (2?) High level assumptions, but not too far off the mark I wouldn’t think? Essentially a three point swing in difficulty between being a third heat leader and second string (i.e. expect thrid heat leader to drop 1.5 from their old average, and second strings to gain the same). This will be most marked for riders coming in on an “assessed” average, as the impact will be immediate rather than gradual under rolling averages. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Woz01 3,589 Posted January 30, 2014 (edited) The only way it wont make much difference is that once they get a new average they will move up to heat leader and then get harder races so their average will go down again. Richie Worrall, Ryan Fisher, Adam Skornicki. Daniel Nermark, Mikkel Michelsen, Mikkel Bech, Simon Gustafsson and Peter Ljung will all move up to a top three place in their teams during the season ......... then possibly move back down by September !! Ive no doubt Fisher and Gustafsson will as their averages are close to Hansen and Morris anyway. If anything it will be the likes of Howarth and Grajczonek with the bigger increase but for me thats because their careers are on the up more than their actual programmed rides. Heat leaders on the other hand is a different matter, they will have more difficult rides so can see most drop their average. Edited January 30, 2014 by woz01 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Red Panda 366 Posted January 30, 2014 Josh Grajczonek and probably Kyle Howarth........... RP Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
barrow boy 119 Posted February 11, 2014 Got to be Milik for me. In on a 4 when he will probably achieve at least 7. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jenga 2,998 Posted February 11, 2014 (edited) all riders in the elite league will increase their average, because there is not enough good riders to battle against. i can see all the reserves having an average of 4.00 plus. then next year the top guys will be struggling to get a team spot.. .. IMO.. Edited February 11, 2014 by jenga Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
waiheke1 4,295 Posted February 11, 2014 Got to be Milik for me. In on a 4 when he will probably achieve at least 7.Will no doubt increase his aberage but cant see it being 7. 7 would see him promoted to a heat leader slot, where with expected formula I couldnt see him averaging more than 4. I think he will remain a second string with an average of about six.all riders in the elite league will increase their average, because there is not enough good riders tobattle against. i can see all the reserves having an average of 4.00 plus. then next year the top guys will be struggling to get a team spot.. .. IMO..Not all riders will improve their average. The weaker heat leaders are actually likely to decrease. Bear in mind there are only a certsin number of points to go round - top five for each team start with a cumulative average of 32 and avsilable points each meeting for top five is likely to equate average of around 32.8 (even assuming reserves take two points off top 5 per meeting there are only 74 points from 44 rides available which would equate to an average of 33.3 per team). So there will not be a massive increase overall. The "average" reserve will aversge a bit over 4, but its highly unlikely that they all will. Someone like garritty may average as high as eight, the weakest reserves may average under 3. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dontforgetthefueltapsbruv 10,706 Posted February 11, 2014 Will no doubt increase his aberage but cant see it being 7. 7 would see him promoted to a heat leader slot, where with expected formula I couldnt see him averaging more than 4. I think he will remain a second string with an average of about six. Not all riders will improve their average. The weaker heat leaders are actually likely to decrease. Bear in mind there are only a certsin number of points to go round - top five for each team start with a cumulative average of 32 and avsilable points each meeting for top five is likely to equate average of around 32.8 (even assuming reserves take two points off top 5 per meeting there are only 74 points from 44 rides available which would equate to an average of 33.3 per team). So there will not be a massive increase overall. The "average" reserve will aversge a bit over 4, but its highly unlikely that they all will. Someone like garritty may average as high as eight, the weakest reserves may average under 3. and of course whatever the reserves average it wont matter as they will not actually be given an official CMA. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Turner 347 Posted February 11, 2014 Darcy Ward. Could easily put another 6 or 7 on his average. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stevebrum 6,824 Posted February 11, 2014 Got to be Milik for me. In on a 4 when he will probably achieve at least 7. According to Poole fans he is on the right assessed average, but i agree with you. Hence why he is on the wrong assessed average. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
waiheke1 4,295 Posted February 12, 2014 According to Poole fans he is on the right assessed average, but i agree with you. Hence why he is on the wrong assessed average.Tbf, it would be wrong to base average on what he is expected to score as a second string in the new format, as that would give him an inflated average compared to those with rolling averages from 2013. Agree he should have been a 5 though. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
steven101 103 Posted February 12, 2014 Mikkel michelsen & robert lambert Desperately want lambert to set the elite league alight hope he does 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
superguest 194 Posted February 12, 2014 Bech, Mikkelsen & Milik as they are all on low aves. Wouldn't begrudge Scrambleman a decent season. Hopefully Wells t o improve but not so guaranteed. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
proud panther 1,505 Posted February 12, 2014 Garrity will clean up at reserve all season, & should be closer to 6 by the end of the season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
