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Opinions different to yours are allowed! Losing a reserve is often more costly because they can only be replaced by the other reserve, leading to at least one three man race. Plus Ablitt used to ride for Poole so may well have scored more than your expert view might suggest. We’ll never know of course, but Poole will win this comfortably - they might well have done anyway, but to suggest losing a rider makes absolutely no difference is nonsense.