barrow boy 119 Posted July 27, 2011 The National League is at present the closest of the 3 leagues as follows:- Stoke +07 Dudley +06 Belle Vue +05 Scunthorpe +04 Hackney +02 Mildenhall +00 Newport -03 King's Lynn -04 Isle Of Wight -05 Buxton -08 Regards BB Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
barrow boy 119 Posted August 3, 2011 Mildenhall's win at Dudley has made a huge difference to the league standings which are now as follows: 01 Stoke +07 02 Belle Vue +05 03 Scunthorpe +04 04 Mildenhall +04 05 Dudley +03 06 Hackney +02 07 Ling's Lynn -04 08 Newport -04 09 Ilse Of Wight -04 10 Buxton -08 Regards BB Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
manchesterpaul 447 Posted August 3, 2011 Mildenhall's win at Dudley has made a huge difference to the league standings which are now as follows: 01 Stoke +07 02 Belle Vue +05 03 Scunthorpe +04 04 Mildenhall +04 05 Dudley +03 06 Hackney +02 07 Ling's Lynn -04 08 Newport -04 09 Ilse Of Wight -04 10 Buxton -08 Regards BB Barrow Boy i so hate to pour cold water on or criticize something when someone has gone to an effort of presenting information for others. But the plus/minus system can be awfully misleading, and in the way it's presented above quite disinformative. Even if you had shown the matches ridden, and also importantly the varying number of home and away fixtures for each team, without extrapolating the stats to an equal measurement for all teams it tells you very little at all. Furthermore, even with the matches listed including home and away that system still leaves one having to do mental arithmetic for each and every team instead of being to glance at the standings. Your table is laid out as only needing a glance but it's misleading in it's rankings. Rather than prattle away here* have a glance at the example of the different systems in the sticky for the MiniMax tables and see how it's 'projected points' feature lays the others to waste lol. *Ok now i about to prattle away here anyway lol.... Certainly at the moment the plus/minus system isn't portraying Stoke still holding on to a larger gap between themselves and the others which they have had for a little while now in the MiniMax projected points. Being sixth in the traditional tables and a mere two points ahead in the plus/minus does not accurately portray their good form up to the present date. I'm referring to actual results and points gained, irrespective of whether their season ends with them up at the top reaches of the league or not. Bad run of form, harder fixtures, whatever lies ahead, the fact is they have done very well indeed so far. Point being......better than the traditional table or plus/minus shows. Also, i don't think King's Lynn should be deemed to be equal with the Isle of Wight and Newport on their performances so far. As detailed elsewhere the MiniMax's projected points, like plus/minus, isn't going in for predictions. But it does extrapolate the actual results so far and if the other two teams have a big boost in their form it will duly reflect it as they go along. However on the season up to now the standings of the three teams are NOT equal as the plus/minus indicates they are. As an example compare the MiniMax system which currently has a gap between King's Lynn and the Isle of Wight when the plus/minus has them equal. The MiniMax is reflecting the facts from the teams actual performances so far such as, Isle of Wight have around only 58% of their home points in the bag and gained only 4% of available away points. King's Lynn's away form isn't much better but IOW's average match score of losing 36-56 would seem to indicate they aren't going to be improving ther plus/minus rating much at all. King's Lynn's home form is much better at the moment too. Maybe that's why they absolutely hammered the Isle of Wight at home the other week 61-31 and narrowly lost by a mere two points away to them. Neither result too indicative of equal teams. Of course there will be shock results during the season for many reasons be it due to weather, injuries on the night or just sheer bad luck for a team. However, enough matches have passed by now to balance such things out and any system should be able to reflect a bit more accurately on standings than the plus/minus one seems too right now. Then again in a league of so few matches any angle can be hard to get a grasp of and lot's can change. But, if King's Lynn have a run of bad form and the other two teams have a good run the MiniMax system will reflect that match by match and at all times you'll only ever need a quick glance to take in the standings, no multiple acts of mental arithmetic needed. Anyways, take absolutely zero notice of me lol lol. Have a nice day etc. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
barrow boy 119 Posted August 16, 2011 I think my +/- method is really quite simple to understand as it shows how the league will end up if no further home points are lost and no further away points are gained. It is quite likely however that this will not remain the case and when a change is made the new chart will reflect it and so on etc. etc. Standings up to and including 15.08.11 are as follows:- 01-Stoke +08 02-Belle Vue +05 03-Mildenhall +04 04-Scunthorpe +04 05-Dudley +03 06-Hackney +02 07-King's Lynn -01 08-Newport -05 09-Isle Of Wight -05 10-Buxton -10 Regards BB Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
manchesterpaul 447 Posted August 16, 2011 I think my +/- method is really quite simple to understand as it shows how the league will end up if no further home points are lost and no further away points are gained. It is quite likely however that this will not remain the case and when a change is made the new chart will reflect it and so on etc. etc. 'barrow boy' don't get me wrong each to his own and no big sweat but......i must stress and point out again how misleading und DISINFORMATIVE the plus/minus rankings are. I'll reiterate a couple of points from above and include an example of why the MiniMax projected points system is far more accurate. Words in bold font and capital letters are just key points. Incidentally, regards your reply above, the MiniMax projected points obviously reflects changes instantly. I see your plus/minus system is only now putting a gap between King's Lynn and the two weaker teams i mentioned existed weeks ago. Crucially, it DID exist THEN but the plus/minus didn't show it. The MiniMax projected points is indeed an 'as they stand NOW' table too, only an infinitely more accurate one than the plus/minus system. Also, the projected points table is even easier to glance at and comprehend as there are no plus and minus prefixes, just points instead. I think that is extremely simple to understand. .....But the plus/minus system can be awfully misleading, and in the way it's presented above quite disinformative. Even if you had shown the matches ridden, and also importantly the varying number of home and away fixtures for each team, without extrapolating the stats to an equal measurement for all teams it tells you very little at all.....Your table is laid out as only needing a glance but it's misleading in it's rankings. Also, i don't think King's Lynn should be deemed to be equal with the Isle of Wight and Newport on their performances so far. As detailed elsewhere the MiniMax's projected points, like plus/minus, isn't going in for predictions. But it does extrapolate the actual results so far.......However on the season up to now the standings of the three teams are NOT equal as the plus/minus indicates they are. As an example compare the MiniMax system which currently has a gap between King's Lynn and the Isle of Wight when the plus/minus has them equal. The MiniMax is reflecting the facts from the teams actual performances so far such as, Isle of Wight have around only 58% of their home points in the bag and gained only 4% of available away points. King's Lynn's away form isn't much better but IOW's average match score of losing 36-56 would seem to indicate they aren't going to be improving ther plus/minus rating much at all. King's Lynn's home form is much better at the moment too. Maybe that's why they absolutely hammered the Isle of Wight at home the other week 61-31 and narrowly lost by a mere two points away to them. Neither result too indicative of equal teams. Anyways, each to his own and i'll certainly not be following you around the forums pointing out the 'error of your ways' lol lol. So all the best and i'll leave you with a comparison of the two systems in action. From the 1st July i've now added next to each of the main tables (which are still sorted by the traditional points) a mini Projected Points table. Remember this isn't a predictive system based on personal judgements. It is how they actually stand as and when you view it. It extrapolates all the results so far and presents them on to an even number of matches ridden. It's an 'as now' view and not predicting the end of season points. One quick example comparing systems and for illustrative purposes i've made the records identical and simplistic save for the imbalance of matches (away ones in this case) which is where the projected points comes into it's own. Team A and Team B finish the season with identical records. -----------------P----W3---W2--D1--L0-----W4--W3--D2----L1----L0-----Pts Team A-----38----19-----0-----0-----0------0------0-----0-----19-----0------76 Team B-----38----19----0-----0-----0-------0------0-----0-----19-----0------76 Yet a snapshot taken during the season could have for example. -----------------P---W3--W2--D1--L0-----W4--W3--D2----L1----L0-----Pts------+/- -----PP Team A-----18----6-----0-----0-----0------0------0-----0-----12-----0------30......+12------76 Team B------8-----6-----0-----0-----0------0------0-----0-------2-----0-----20.......+2-------76 The traditional table has A at 30pts and B at 20pts The plus/minus system has A at +12 and B at +2 The projected points has A at 76 and B at 76. The traditional table can't show the equality of the teams at the time because of the imbalance in the number of matches ridden. One would have to mentally divide the matches ridden and points gained so far in both the home and away fields for all of the teams. The projected points just needs one simple glance. The plus/minus system wrongly shows team A to be 6 times a better team than B. Because the +/- system does not extrapolate the home and away matches into a season total of an 'even' number of matches. It will quite often tell you nothing useful at all and be misleading. The projected points system extrapolates the actual results so far and applies them to an even yardstick of eventual matches to be ridden. It the only system that shows the true even performance levels of the teams. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
barrow boy 119 Posted August 17, 2011 The +/- method simply shows it how it is and as it stands at the current moment in time, not how it might be or how it will eventually end up. Yesterday's matches are an example of what can happen with Dudley dropping a home point, Belle Vue gaining an away point, Isle Of Wight dropping points at home and Mildenhall gaining points away. These change the rankings as follows:- 01-Stoke +08 02-Belle Vue +06 03-Mildenhall +06 04-Scunrhorpe +04 05-Hackney +02 06-Dudley +02 07-King's Lynn -01 08-Newport -05 09-Isle Of Wight -07 10-Buxton -10 REgards BB Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
manchesterpaul 447 Posted August 17, 2011 (edited) The +/- method simply shows it how it is and as it stands at the current moment in time, not how it might be or how it will eventually end up. Yesterday's matches are an example of what can happen with Dudley dropping a home point, Belle Vue gaining an away point, Isle Of Wight dropping points at home and Mildenhall gaining points away. These change the rankings as follows:- 01-Stoke +08 02-Belle Vue +06 03-Mildenhall +06 04-Scunrhorpe +04 05-Hackney +02 06-Dudley +02 07-King's Lynn -01 08-Newport -05 09-Isle Of Wight -07 10-Buxton -10 REgards BB Friendly grrRRRRR......AS DOES THE PROJECTED POINTS BUT FAR, FAR, MORE ACCURATELY AND TRUTHFULLY lol lol. Ok no sweat we'll leave the statements/opinions as they stand for others to judge. However, i suggest you compare the MiniMax tables which have thousands of visitors a day (as in for a bloody good reason lol). An observation, looking at your Elite League table as an example, soon some teams will have completed their fixtures, some will have a majority of home or away fixtures to take place (in speedway the potential points return is drastically different between home and away fixtures in hand) the plus/minus standings as you present them take into account none of that. That makes them astonishingly misleading. I must add the MIniMax, as does your system reflects results so far and does not PREDICT anything in any way. I've been keeping a closer eye than normal on the MiniMax 'projected points' system this year as it is the first time i have made it public and....quite simply it knocks the socks of observations from all corners of the sport regarding to the TRUE standings on performances SO FAR...RIGHT NOW AS OF TODAY. Anyway BB, honest respect to you for attempting to provide information/insight for others. No war, all is good Edited August 17, 2011 by manchesterpaul Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Great Central 226 Posted August 17, 2011 (edited) Friendly rivalry with both of you providing a different way of predicting the final outcome with both having Stoke as top team. Keep up the good work since it makes interesting reading. Edited August 17, 2011 by Great Central Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
manchesterpaul 447 Posted August 17, 2011 (edited) Friendly rivalry with both of you providing a different way of predicting the final outcome with both having Stoke as top team. Keep up the good work since it makes interesting reading. Lol, no war going on but......neither of us are PREDICTING what will happen in the future, we are BOTH reflecting the table on results so far. Only difference is mine takes into account the number of home and away matches having taken place and the points gained or lost from them EXTRAPOLATED TO AN EVEN YARDSTICK (of eventual matches to be raced). The plus/minus system is appallingly weak at reflecting that. Incidentally BB did not have Stoke as a clear top team when they WERE a few weeks ago Edited August 17, 2011 by manchesterpaul Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Great Central 226 Posted August 17, 2011 Lol, no war going on but......neither of us are PREDICTING what will happen in the future, we are BOTH reflecting the table on results so far. Only difference is mine takes into account the number of home and away matches having taken place and the points gained or lost from them EXTRAPOLATED TO AN EVEN YARDSTICK (of eventual matches to be raced). The plus/minus system is appallingly weak at reflecting that. Incidentally BB did not have Stoke as a clear top team when they WERE a few weeks ago I must be reading your table incorrectly then, since aren't you predicting the final points tally in each team at the end of the fixtures and therefore the final position of the teams? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Diesel 26 Posted August 18, 2011 My league table is better than your league table. Worst. Argument. Ever. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fourentee 988 Posted August 18, 2011 The +/- method simply shows it how it is and as it stands at the current moment in time, not how it might be or how it will eventually end up. Yesterday's matches are an example of what can happen with Dudley dropping a home point, Belle Vue gaining an away point, Isle Of Wight dropping points at home and Mildenhall gaining points away. These change the rankings as follows:- 01-Stoke +08 02-Belle Vue +06 03-Mildenhall +06 04-Scunrhorpe +04 05-Hackney +02 06-Dudley +02 07-King's Lynn -01 08-Newport -05 09-Isle Of Wight -07 10-Buxton -10 REgards BB Dudley +4, surely? Five dropped at home (a loss and a brace of two-point wins), nine gained away (two three-point wins, a draw and a narrow defeat). http://www.speedwaygb.co/nltable11.html Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
manchesterpaul 447 Posted August 18, 2011 (edited) Friendly grrRRRRR......AS DOES THE PROJECTED POINTS BUT FAR, FAR, MORE ACCURATELY AND TRUTHFULLY lol lol. Ok no sweat we'll leave the statements/opinions as they stand for others to judge. However, i suggest you compare the MiniMax tables which have thousands of visitors a day (as in for a bloody good reason lol). Ooooops typo there, i meant hundreds, it's the racecards get the four figure number of hits. I must be reading your table incorrectly then, since aren't you predicting the final points tally in each team at the end of the fixtures and therefore the final position of the teams? The tables reflects the results so far, no predicting future results or placings at all (neither does the plus/minus predict). It is a table of how they stand right now up to and including the very latest match to be raced. It takes the home and away results and extrapolates them to the total number of fixtures raced in a season. A simplistic illustration; it's the same as two teams having raced 8 and 6 times respectively, then one divides their points by fixtures raced and multiply by ten, which would then give an even yardstick to measure by. One that one can glance at and see instant standings. Technically you could say that is 'predicting' the results over 10 fixtures, but it's actually using 10 as a yardstick. Although ,obviously the MiniMax projected points extrapolates over the 9 different point outcomes available in a match and projects them on to the number of fixtures to be raced over the season in the respective leagues. It's using the end number of fixtures as a yardstick. It is as they stand today on matches raced. In the way it is done there is clearly a side-effect that it can end up being remarkably accurate as to the final end of season standings in a predictive way too. But, that's merely a bonus, the table shows teams on performances so far. Hopefully, i've clarified it in the post earlier with the examples above, i don't really won't to sidetrack the OP's original thread. My league table is better than your league table. Worst. Argument. Ever. Glad. It. Isn't. An. Argument. Then. Merely was a short discussion after i pointed out the plus/minus as it is shown here to be disinformative. Anyways, we're all hijacking the poor chap's thread. Both BB and myself have stated our thoughts about the tables used and i'm happy to leave it at that and let him get on with his thread's original purpose of showing plus/minus tables. Edited August 18, 2011 by manchesterpaul Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
barrow boy 119 Posted August 30, 2011 As It Stands at 29.08.11 without doing the impossible and forcasting unridden matched. 01-Stoke+16 02-Mildenhall+8 03-Belle Vue+6 04-Scunthorpe+5 05-Hackney-1 06-Dudley-1 07-King's Lynn-4 08-Newport-4 09-Isle Of Wight-8 10-Buxton-10 Regards BB Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
scribbler 213 Posted August 30, 2011 I like both methods... I look at barrow boy's method for a quick look at how things are going... and if I want more depth I look at manchesterpaul's summary. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
