King's Lynn Stars 2017

[dontforgetthefueltapsbruv 10,706]

 

I don't get your calculations. when most teams have only a couple of EL riders the 'old money value' is way higher than your 36. You're getting mixed up with teams having 7 EL riders with loaded averages. we haven't had that for yonks!!!

Im not mixed up at all.

 

In 'old money' a 9 point 2nd tier rider would convert to 6.43 but this year have to use the 9. So even a team with 7 old 2nd tier riders adding up to 50 is really still 36 'in old money'

[g13webb 4,254]

Im not mixed up at all.

 

In 'old money' a 9 point 2nd tier rider would convert to 6.43 but this year have to use the 9. So even a team with 7 old 2nd tier riders adding up to 50 is really still 36 'in old money'

That's the point, we don't a team with 7, 2nd tier riders. If there were it would be more feasible.... Most teams are only using 2/3 riders with their EL loaded score...the rest are on PL averages that was attained in the PL.

[dontforgetthefueltapsbruv 10,706]

That's the point, we don't a team with 7, 2nd tier riders. If there were it would be more feasible.... Most teams are only using 2/3 riders with their EL loaded score...the rest are on PL averages that was attained in the PL.

I dont think you have grasped the impact of the multiplier.

 

It was to equalise the comparative figures from each league. Therefore it doesnt matter whether a teams 7 are all former EL all former PL or any mix inbetween.

 

It has also been shown on various threads by those with extensive statistical nouse that barring a minimal number of anomilies (eg Klindt) it was a very good fit for actual performances.

[g13webb 4,254]

I dont think you have grasped the impact of the multiplier.

 

It was to equalise the comparative figures from each league. Therefore it doesnt matter whether a teams 7 are all former EL all former PL or any mix inbetween.

 

It has also been shown on various threads by those with extensive statistical nouse that barring a minimal number of anomilies (eg Klindt) it was a very good fit for actual performances.

 

Your reply has given me a good laugh, and the two poster who liked it was so predictable. For your information, I acquired and 'O' level at 15, 'A' level at 17, degree at 20, followed by ONC in Mechanical Engineering at 24..

For the last 40 years I was a Project Engineer where compounded calculations were the order of the day. I have supplied many structural Calculations for building, so please spare me the insults talking about the impact of the Multiplier....

 

Now if anybody has got this wrong then you should first look at yourself. Lets start first with the old CMA figures of the Elite League. Because they were so varied and untrue, it was decided to use the rider's PL average, where possible, as this figure was thought to be a truer reflection of one's ability. ( Fair Comment) Coupled with this decision it was to create a loading that to bring the EL riders, who had no Pl average, into a comparison with the ability of those PL riders. Also taking into account the racing format was changing to make the HL role easier. Taking all these things into the equation, it was decided a loading of 1.4 to multiply the existing EL average to form a comparison with the PL averages.... but only until the first set of new figures become available. ( Not all the rider get this multiplier, only the ones who didn't have a PL CMA) ........ Do hope you're keeping up.

 

1. When a team Manager assembles his team he had 50 pts to play with. If he use 7 riders with PL averages. then he would add their said PL scores with no multiplier to be seen... When the first new set of figures are acquired after 4H and 4A it is expected some riders will score less and the teams points will drop. .. but not that much.... ( a multiplier hasn't been used or changed)

 

2. When a team Manager assembles his team he had 50 pts to play with. If he use 7 riders with EL averages. then he would add their said EL scores and Multiply by 1.4 ( 35.71 EL pts x 1.40 = 49.99) When the first new set of figures are acquired after 4H and 4A the team score will diminish. They will automatically lose 14.28 from the loading they started with but it is expected their CMA will go up to compensate for it..... ( a multiplier was used and now dropped)

 

3. When a team Manager assembles his team he had 50 pts to play with. If he use 5 riders with PL averages. and 2 EL riders, then he would add their said PL scores plus the EL scores multiplied with 1.4 . ( (PL pts x 5) +( EL x 2 x 1.4)) .. When the first new set of figures are acquired after 4H and 4A the team score should diminish. They will automatically lose the loading of the 2 EL riders, but all the riders will count as scored ..... ( a multiplier was used and now dropped)

 

So you see, the make-up of the team has massive implications. Not all EL riders will increase the score by (*1.4). Not all PL rider will drop their scores.

No doubt as time goes, it will all rectify itself when all riders will used the correct averages for the league they compete it We are in a change-over stage where some will win and some will lose, It is the intention to get back to a more realistic situation than it's been for some years....

 

So you see I am well aware of the implications of the multiplier, and I hope I have shown you how it makes a massive difference by the way the team has been assembled....

[Bagpuss 10,784]

I liked dontforgetthefuelstapsbruv's post because he is correct and you, not for the first time, are spouting absolute nonsense.

[dontforgetthefueltapsbruv 10,706]

And there was me thinking that GRW123 chose that username because that was as far as they could count..... 😛

 

Point 2 is flawed - all things being equal the 14.28 wont automatically be lost. Infact the standard drop will be about half that.

 

PS In the exam 'pi$$ing contest' I also got O Level maths at 15 and A at Level 17. To fill the six months after the O Level I took an O Level Statistics and got grade A in the following June. 👅👅

[g13webb 4,254]

I liked dontforgetthefuelstapsbruv's post because he is correct and you, not for the first time, are spouting absolute nonsense.

 

Please tell Which part is wrong ???

[micman 77]

Feeling the love peeps!

 

Many people ask if Tracey and I miss our old lives back in Blighty. I always respond that we don't miss the place but we do miss the people.

Nothing will ever equal the 2006 season when the boys 'did it for Ash' and dominated the Premier League in memory of Ashley Jones.

Those meetings with Sheffield and Edinburgh were something special and I was proud to be a part of that era.

 

I'm hoping to come across later in the year to promote my book called "confessions of a media tart - Part one. . .The speedway years"

so look forward to seeing many of you then.

 

I'll be uploading our interview with Darcy on to YouTube so will share the link on here next week but for those who want to set their alarms

and listen live tune in on www.101fm.com.au :-)

[Daniel Smith 5,666]

 

Your reply has given me a good laugh, and the two poster who liked it was so predictable. For your information, I acquired and 'O' level at 15, 'A' level at 17, degree at 20, followed by ONC in Mechanical Engineering at 24..

For the last 40 years I was a Project Engineer where compounded calculations were the order of the day. I have supplied many structural Calculations for building, so please spare me the insults talking about the impact of the Multiplier....

 

Now if anybody has got this wrong then you should first look at yourself. Lets start first with the old CMA figures of the Elite League. Because they were so varied and untrue, it was decided to use the rider's PL average, where possible, as this figure was thought to be a truer reflection of one's ability. ( Fair Comment) Coupled with this decision it was to create a loading that to bring the EL riders, who had no Pl average, into a comparison with the ability of those PL riders. Also taking into account the racing format was changing to make the HL role easier. Taking all these things into the equation, it was decided a loading of 1.4 to multiply the existing EL average to form a comparison with the PL averages.... but only until the first set of new figures become available. ( Not all the rider get this multiplier, only the ones who didn't have a PL CMA) ........ Do hope you're keeping up.

 

1. When a team Manager assembles his team he had 50 pts to play with. If he use 7 riders with PL averages. then he would add their said PL scores with no multiplier to be seen... When the first new set of figures are acquired after 4H and 4A it is expected some riders will score less and the teams points will drop. .. but not that much.... ( a multiplier hasn't been used or changed)

 

2. When a team Manager assembles his team he had 50 pts to play with. If he use 7 riders with EL averages. then he would add their said EL scores and Multiply by 1.4 ( 35.71 EL pts x 1.40 = 49.99) When the first new set of figures are acquired after 4H and 4A the team score will diminish. They will automatically lose 14.28 from the loading they started with but it is expected their CMA will go up to compensate for it..... ( a multiplier was used and now dropped)

 

3. When a team Manager assembles his team he had 50 pts to play with. If he use 5 riders with PL averages. and 2 EL riders, then he would add their said PL scores plus the EL scores multiplied with 1.4 . ( (PL pts x 5) +( EL x 2 x 1.4)) .. When the first new set of figures are acquired after 4H and 4A the team score should diminish. They will automatically lose the loading of the 2 EL riders, but all the riders will count as scored ..... ( a multiplier was used and now dropped)

 

So you see, the make-up of the team has massive implications. Not all EL riders will increase the score by (*1.4). Not all PL rider will drop their scores.

No doubt as time goes, it will all rectify itself when all riders will used the correct averages for the league they compete it We are in a change-over stage where some will win and some will lose, It is the intention to get back to a more realistic situation than it's been for some years....

 

So you see I am well aware of the implications of the multiplier, and I hope I have shown you how it makes a massive difference by the way the team has been assembled....

 

Out of interest, apart from Belle Vue & Leicester how do you think the league table will look of nobody has to make changes?

Here's mine

 

1. King's Lynn

2. Poole

3. Wolves

4. Rye House

5. Coventry

6. Swindon

7. Somerset

[waiheke1 4,295]

 

Out of interest, apart from Belle Vue & Leicester how do you think the league table will look of nobody has to make changes?

Here's mine

 

1. King's Lynn

2. Poole

3. Wolves

4. Rye House

5. Coventry

6. Swindon

7. Somerset

I'd swap poole and kings lynn around, otherwise I'd say that's on the money.

[therefused 819]

 

Your reply has given me a good laugh, and the two poster who liked it was so predictable. For your information, I acquired and 'O' level at 15, 'A' level at 17, degree at 20, followed by ONC in Mechanical Engineering at 24..

For the last 40 years I was a Project Engineer where compounded calculations were the order of the day. I have supplied many structural Calculations for building, so please spare me the insults talking about the impact of the Multiplier....

 

Now if anybody has got this wrong then you should first look at yourself. Lets start first with the old CMA figures of the Elite League. Because they were so varied and untrue, it was decided to use the rider's PL average, where possible, as this figure was thought to be a truer reflection of one's ability. ( Fair Comment) Coupled with this decision it was to create a loading that to bring the EL riders, who had no Pl average, into a comparison with the ability of those PL riders. Also taking into account the racing format was changing to make the HL role easier. Taking all these things into the equation, it was decided a loading of 1.4 to multiply the existing EL average to form a comparison with the PL averages.... but only until the first set of new figures become available. ( Not all the rider get this multiplier, only the ones who didn't have a PL CMA) ........ Do hope you're keeping up.

 

1. When a team Manager assembles his team he had 50 pts to play with. If he use 7 riders with PL averages. then he would add their said PL scores with no multiplier to be seen... When the first new set of figures are acquired after 4H and 4A it is expected some riders will score less and the teams points will drop. .. but not that much.... ( a multiplier hasn't been used or changed)

 

2. When a team Manager assembles his team he had 50 pts to play with. If he use 7 riders with EL averages. then he would add their said EL scores and Multiply by 1.4 ( 35.71 EL pts x 1.40 = 49.99) When the first new set of figures are acquired after 4H and 4A the team score will diminish. They will automatically lose 14.28 from the loading they started with but it is expected their CMA will go up to compensate for it..... ( a multiplier was used and now dropped)

 

3. When a team Manager assembles his team he had 50 pts to play with. If he use 5 riders with PL averages. and 2 EL riders, then he would add their said PL scores plus the EL scores multiplied with 1.4 . ( (PL pts x 5) +( EL x 2 x 1.4)) .. When the first new set of figures are acquired after 4H and 4A the team score should diminish. They will automatically lose the loading of the 2 EL riders, but all the riders will count as scored ..... ( a multiplier was used and now dropped)

 

So you see, the make-up of the team has massive implications. Not all EL riders will increase the score by (*1.4). Not all PL rider will drop their scores.

No doubt as time goes, it will all rectify itself when all riders will used the correct averages for the league they compete it We are in a change-over stage where some will win and some will lose, It is the intention to get back to a more realistic situation than it's been for some years....

 

So you see I am well aware of the implications of the multiplier, and I hope I have shown you how it makes a massive difference by the way the team has been assembled....

So by your reckoning a team like somerset with 6 premier league riders will still average around 48 because they are the same quality as last year? If thats the case theyll win the Premiership at a canter.

[Bagpuss 10,784]

Pretty much what I was going to post, Somerset should be favourites going by GRW's logic rather than being tipped for the lower reaches. Far too much is being read into the conversions, for a change I think the BSPA have done a pretty good job.

[Gavan 5,050]

 

Out of interest, apart from Belle Vue & Leicester how do you think the league table will look of nobody has to make changes?

Here's mine

 

1. King's Lynn

2. Poole

3. Wolves

4. Rye House

5. Coventry

6. Swindon

7. Somerset

1. Kings Lynn

2. Wolves

3. Poole

4. Rye House

5. Coventry

6. Somerset

7. Swindon.

 

Top 4 are pretty much sorted for me unless Leicester or Belle Vue come up with something out of the blue

[waiheke1 4,295]

Assuming coventry run, I think they are quite capable of beating rye house into 4th, so I don't think the top 4 is that clear cut. I'd be amazed though if any of kl poole and wolves did not make the play offs.

[g13webb 4,254]

So by your reckoning a team like somerset with 6 premier league riders will still average around 48 because they are the same quality as last year? If thats the case theyll win the Premiership at a canter.

 

I think Somerset wiIl do far better than people imagine and will be more than competitive....

.

The advantage of using riders with a PL CMA it is a far more accurate assessment of the rider when racing against those of similar ability . By using the rolling average over 20 meeting give a far more truer indication of their talent under similar conditions.. ( No protected heats) So come next year they will be racing against those same riders plus a FEW better ones thrown in. On that basis they should be able to score points similar to those from last year. Of course there will be some that struggle, also there will be some who really improve along the way. Most teams have a I or 2 big hitters who will have to be beaten but nothing that they haven't raced against before. No doubt the teams points scoring will come down also but not as one sided as most appear to think....

 

When we talk about riders will EL CMA it has been decided to load them with a (x1.4) factor to equate their point scoring ability to the Pl rider from the start. This is where there are many variables. Because of last years protected heat format the EL rider's acquire CMA was fabricated at best. 2nd string riders with higher averages then HL from easier races. this is what we have to move away from. When looking at top riders like Dolye, Holder and Lindgren , they are more than capable of increases their points haul to offset the loading with which they started. But lesser riders with no PL average will have a far bigger job over coming the loading placed on them. So in this instance, just because they were rationalised as EL riders, their ability to score points could be harder than those of PL standing.

 

Poster are picking up the wrong end of the stick. I have not run the BSPA down and have praised them for what they are trying to do.. A few posters say I'm talking rubbish but have yet to say what I have said that is wrong. I still believe there will be many variables when the new figures are released, Who has raced against the harder teams, those who raced in bad weather, Those who raced on bad tracks, Teams that have suffered bad injuries all these are issue that effect match results, Also in the equation is the make-up of the teams. Some riders will settle in quicker then others, some will be slow starters. Nothing will be settled with the first set of figures, all it will do is set a new standard that all are judged. It will not be till months down the line will we get a true indication of what team make up is better.....

 

 

As for making a prediction I'll leave that until I seen all the teams.....