szkocjasid 3,043 Posted January 29 2 hours ago, MP78 said: I'm inclined to agree with Falcon and Arch too... Howarth and Blodorn have both benefited (and their teams) from dropping into reserve last season, but I think its almost certain that both Sheffield and Belle Vue's number 6s will not move out of that position, which removes the possibility of either team temporarily having overpowered (for want of a better word) reserves to rack up points. In the case of KL and Leicester, they are much more likely to have very strong number 6s for most of the season... So for me, I could quite easily see KL or Leicester making it into the top 4. Do you think Leicester will have a strong number 6? Kemp is on a par with Mountain in the Champ, but agree he's quite a bit stronger than Edwards. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pauldoveyspeedway 144 Posted January 29 19 minutes ago, szkocjasid said: Do you think Leicester will have a strong number 6? Kemp is on a par with Mountain in the Champ, but agree he's quite a bit stronger than Edwards. Kemp is a talent ...just needs to show it ... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GiveusaB 1,145 Posted January 30 16 hours ago, Pauldoveyspeedway said: Kemp is a talent ...just needs to show it ... Kemp has the ability, but lacks 'mentality and physicality' IMO! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MP78 17 Posted January 30 17 hours ago, szkocjasid said: Do you think Leicester will have a strong number 6? Kemp is on a par with Mountain in the Champ, but agree he's quite a bit stronger than Edwards. Ahh… I think it’s about now that I should tell you all that I meant to type Oxford not Leicester… sorry all, my mistake! I do think Kemp will do well this year, but I was in fact referring to Oxford in my original post - sorry again! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stevebrum 6,824 Posted January 30 (edited) On 1/29/2024 at 4:03 PM, szkocjasid said: It's funny when you mention Masters as a true "number one" i always think of that as a 9+ rider, but if he's been one of the top 6/7 riders in the league, then I guess he was a "true number one". I'm assuming for Lynn you meant they only have one real number one? Which is why you didn't put them in the top 4, I guess you could argue so do Oxford & Leicester who you've placed above them? For the Brummies even if Brennan does improve to be a heat leaders still think there too far behind the others to be anything other than 7th, hopefully could help them win a few home matches though. On the whole, can't disagree with any of your predictions. By definition anyone who finishes in the top 10 yearly averages several seasons running can be classed as a true number 1. However I fully agree that I also consider riders with a 9 plus averages as a real definition of a number one. Valid point on the real number one comment. Think it’s splitting hairs on the rest of the Oxford and Leicester teams who have riders more proven to have achieved a higher average. If anything KL have massive potential. Think everyone has the Brummies down as 7th by a very large margin! Very much an unknown quantity compared to the other 6 teams. Edited January 31 by stevebrum Missing number Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
szkocjasid 3,043 Posted January 30 11 hours ago, MP78 said: Ahh… I think it’s about now that I should tell you all that I meant to type Oxford not Leicester… sorry all, my mistake! I do think Kemp will do well this year, but I was in fact referring to Oxford in my original post - sorry again! That makes a lot more sense, agree with that Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aries 440 Posted February 5 Leicester look the pick here for me. Someone earlier in the thread made a good point, Leicester have the Wolves top 3 from last year, a Wolves team that finished second in the table. And they have added Max Fricke and Richard Lawson on top of that! That’s potent. They’ve also been smart and used all the points gained from Kemp’s 25% reduction, something Ipswich haven’t done with Jenkins 25% reduction. Ipswich will still join them in the top 4 though and pretty comfortably this time. They’ve fixed the Riss issue with Ellis and they’ve also got one of the better rising stars fit in Dan Thompson. Finally having a rising star that could contribute in meetings turned their season around last year. Oxford will also comfortably make the top four IMO. The only question mark with them is the fitness of a few returning injured riders. They could be slow burners if it takes them a while to get up to speed but if they do, I expect them to be strong. Solid all through the top 5 and the best reserve in the league in Kerr. The last spot isn’t quite as clear cut. Of the remaining sides I think Lynn look the best. Big fan of Musielak and he’ll do a good job for them at #1. Look to have Wotsit on a bargain average going by his performances for Peterborough last year and I’d expect him to swap with Palm Toft after the first change in averages meaning Lynn also will have a strong reserve all year. Not convinced with either Sheffield or Belle Vue this time. Belle Vue will need Bewley to be the 9+ rider we know he’s capable of being, rather than the 8 point rider we saw last year. If he steps it up a gear, Belle Vue have a potent top 3 with Kurtz and Lidsey that could see them challenge for a play off spot. Bewley the key here. Sheffield have the weakest reserve pairing in the league, which is a problem when you have a rider or two in the top 5 who are a bit flakey. Chris Holder isn’t the rider he once was, far from it, and neither is Woffinden. I think both will be hit and miss this year especially away from home and when they’re having one of those nights where they don’t want to know, that’s when you need your reserves to chip in to cover and this is where Sheffield will struggle. Good luck Birmingham.. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phillipsr 2,057 Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Aries said: Leicester look the pick here for me. Someone earlier in the thread made a good point, Leicester have the Wolves top 3 from last year, a Wolves team that finished second in the table. And they have added Max Fricke and Richard Lawson on top of that! That’s potent. They’ve also been smart and used all the points gained from Kemp’s 25% reduction, something Ipswich haven’t done with Jenkins 25% reduction. Ipswich will still join them in the top 4 though and pretty comfortably this time. They’ve fixed the Riss issue with Ellis and they’ve also got one of the better rising stars fit in Dan Thompson. Finally having a rising star that could contribute in meetings turned their season around last year. Oxford will also comfortably make the top four IMO. The only question mark with them is the fitness of a few returning injured riders. They could be slow burners if it takes them a while to get up to speed but if they do, I expect them to be strong. Solid all through the top 5 and the best reserve in the league in Kerr. The last spot isn’t quite as clear cut. Of the remaining sides I think Lynn look the best. Big fan of Musielak and he’ll do a good job for them at #1. Look to have Wotsit on a bargain average going by his performances for Peterborough last year and I’d expect him to swap with Palm Toft after the first change in averages meaning Lynn also will have a strong reserve all year. Not convinced with either Sheffield or Belle Vue this time. Belle Vue will need Bewley to be the 9+ rider we know he’s capable of being, rather than the 8 point rider we saw last year. If he steps it up a gear, Belle Vue have a potent top 3 with Kurtz and Lidsey that could see them challenge for a play off spot. Bewley the key here. Sheffield have the weakest reserve pairing in the league, which is a problem when you have a rider or two in the top 5 who are a bit flakey. Chris Holder isn’t the rider he once was, far from it, and neither is Woffinden. I think both will be hit and miss this year especially away from home and when they’re having one of those nights where they don’t want to know, that’s when you need your reserves to chip in to cover and this is where Sheffield will struggle. Good luck Birmingham.. I think Leicester look strong BUT the whole Wolves from last year thing is a bit of a myth i think... Wolves had the biggest home advantage of everyone and that contributed massively to where they finished last year.. that wont be the case this year.. Not sure they look as good as some think 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
szkocjasid 3,043 Posted February 5 6 hours ago, Aries said: Leicester look the pick here for me. Someone earlier in the thread made a good point, Leicester have the Wolves top 3 from last year, a Wolves team that finished second in the table. And they have added Max Fricke and Richard Lawson on top of that! That’s potent. They’ve also been smart and used all the points gained from Kemp’s 25% reduction, something Ipswich haven’t done with Jenkins 25% reduction. Ipswich will still join them in the top 4 though and pretty comfortably this time. They’ve fixed the Riss issue with Ellis and they’ve also got one of the better rising stars fit in Dan Thompson. Finally having a rising star that could contribute in meetings turned their season around last year. Oxford will also comfortably make the top four IMO. The only question mark with them is the fitness of a few returning injured riders. They could be slow burners if it takes them a while to get up to speed but if they do, I expect them to be strong. Solid all through the top 5 and the best reserve in the league in Kerr. The last spot isn’t quite as clear cut. Of the remaining sides I think Lynn look the best. Big fan of Musielak and he’ll do a good job for them at #1. Look to have Wotsit on a bargain average going by his performances for Peterborough last year and I’d expect him to swap with Palm Toft after the first change in averages meaning Lynn also will have a strong reserve all year. Not convinced with either Sheffield or Belle Vue this time. Belle Vue will need Bewley to be the 9+ rider we know he’s capable of being, rather than the 8 point rider we saw last year. If he steps it up a gear, Belle Vue have a potent top 3 with Kurtz and Lidsey that could see them challenge for a play off spot. Bewley the key here. Sheffield have the weakest reserve pairing in the league, which is a problem when you have a rider or two in the top 5 who are a bit flakey. Chris Holder isn’t the rider he once was, far from it, and neither is Woffinden. I think both will be hit and miss this year especially away from home and when they’re having one of those nights where they don’t want to know, that’s when you need your reserves to chip in to cover and this is where Sheffield will struggle. Good luck Birmingham.. Can't disagree with anything you've said, good comments Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stevebrum 6,824 Posted February 5 8 hours ago, phillipsr said: I think Leicester look strong BUT the whole Wolves from last year thing is a bit of a myth i think... Wolves had the biggest home advantage of everyone and that contributed massively to where they finished last year.. that wont be the case this year.. Not sure they look as good as some think Yet Belle Vue had much more larger home wins because of their massive home advantage! Quite a lot of close calls at MG and some defeats which kind of tells its own story on this mythical massive home advantage. Truth is most riders could handle MG very well. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tellboy 3,662 Posted February 5 15 minutes ago, stevebrum said: Yet Belle Vue had much more larger home wins because of their massive home advantage! Quite a lot of close calls at MG and some defeats which kind of tells its own story on this mythical massive home advantage. Truth is most riders could handle MG very well. Belle Vue,massive home advantage.Get real Steve,Belle Vue is the best race track in the country.They just had a very good team.I, along with probably 90% of fans would probably choose the NSS over Monmore to watch speedway if they had to choose one. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Noelinho 922 Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, tellboy said: Belle Vue,massive home advantage.Get real Steve,Belle Vue is the best race track in the country.They just had a very good team.I, along with probably 90% of fans would probably choose the NSS over Monmore to watch speedway if they had to choose one. Having a racetrack where people can pass “easily” doesn’t mean there’s no home advantage. People say the same about Ashfield in the Championship. You can have a very raceable track and still have a good home advantage, the tricks are just less obvious. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stevebrum 6,824 Posted February 5 24 minutes ago, tellboy said: Belle Vue,massive home advantage.Get real Steve,Belle Vue is the best race track in the country.They just had a very good team.I, along with probably 90% of fans would probably choose the NSS over Monmore to watch speedway if they had to choose one. If the track wasn’t such a massive home advantage then they wouldn’t steam roll teams season after season. Belle Vue having the biggest home advantage has nothing to do with it being the best race track in the country. That’s completely irrelevant. That wasn’t even a point. Why you have turned it into a which is the best race track is baffling as that wasn’t even a point I made! The myth that wolves had this massive home advantage is disproved by results over the years. Lots of last heat deciders with points on the line all the way thru the meeting. You wouldn’t get that if the home advantage was that great. It’s completely irrelevant whether you or anyone rated MG as a good race track or not. The point was about the biggest home advantage. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tellboy 3,662 Posted February 5 14 minutes ago, stevebrum said: If the track wasn’t such a massive home advantage then they wouldn’t steam roll teams season after season. Belle Vue having the biggest home advantage has nothing to do with it being the best race track in the country. That’s completely irrelevant. That wasn’t even a point. Why you have turned it into a which is the best race track is baffling as that wasn’t even a point I made! The myth that wolves had this massive home advantage is disproved by results over the years. Lots of last heat deciders with points on the line all the way thru the meeting. You wouldn’t get that if the home advantage was that great. It’s completely irrelevant whether you or anyone rated MG as a good race track or not. The point was about the biggest home advantage. So going by your logic,Lynn have the least home advantage. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stevebrum 6,824 Posted February 5 2 hours ago, tellboy said: So going by your logic,Lynn have the least home advantage. Peterborough would be worse don’t you think? Lynn and Panthers have had an awful line up the past couple of seasons which feeds into the fact it doesn’t matter what track advantage you have. Aces and Wolves have had 2 of the better teams in recent seasons so are comparable with riders in their line ups that could be considered track specialists. So would say Wolves maybe have more riders with more small track specialism. You would think Wolves would be dominant at home season after season when in fact they haven’t and haven’t won by massive amounts week after week. Team strength plays its part but I fail to see a logic that Wolves had the most advantageous track to the home riders. Stats don’t back it up. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
