SCB 0 Posted October 21, 2015 (edited) Darcy Ward 10.80 Jason Doyle 10.55 Niels K Iversen 10.36 Maciej Janowski 10.28 Andreas Jonsson 9.23 Peter Kildemand 8.91 Matej Zagar 8.88 Rory Schlein 8.77 Chris Harris 8.56 Chris Holder 8.31 Scott Nicholls 8.03 Troy Batchelor 8.02 Fredrik Lindgren 7.68 Craig Cook 7.66 Nick Morris 7.66 Hans Andersen 7.27 Peter Karlsson 7.07 Dakota North 6.96 Joonas Kylmakorpi 6.91 Grzegorz Walasek 6.83 Grzegorz Zengota 6.83 Davey Watt 6.77 Mikkel B Jensen 6.76 Edward Kennett 6.59 Kim Nilsson 6.48 Kenneth Bjerre 6.43 Danny King 6.33 Robert Lambert 6.23 Ricky Wells 5.92 Richard Lawson 5.75 Josh Grajczonek 5.67 Max Fricke 5.42 Kyle Howarth 5.19 Jacob Thorssell 5.17 Kacper Gomolski 5.15 Vaclav Milik 5.14 Tobiasz Musielak 5.00 Jason Garrity 5.00 Szymon Wozniak 5.00 Kyle Newman 4.96 Lewis Kerr 4.71 Josh Auty 4.67 Stuart Robson 4.43 Steve Worrall 4.35 Nicklas Porsing 4.18 Piotr Swiderski 4.18 Charles Wright 4.16 Bjarne Pedersen 4.14 Ashley Birks 3.91 Simon Stead 3.84 Lewis Blackbird 3.78 James Sarjeant 3.16 Adam Ellis 3.10 Paul Starke 3.03 Stefan Nielsen 2.87 Josh Bates 2.58 Mikkel Michelsen 2.57 Simon Lambert 2.09 Lewis Rose 2.07 Ashley Morris 2.05 Eduard Krcmar 1.95 Adrian Miedzinski 1.54 I've included every rider regardless of the number of meeting they have ridden*, so the likes of Michelsen, Miedzinski, Pedersen and Stead are wrong. It means no need to using PL average for reserves, no need to "heat leader" list. Sorted. And quite nicely, if you remove Ward, Magic and Kildemand, take the top 56 (8 teams of 7 riders), add their combined averages and dive by 8 (teams) you get 40.29 which is about right for the points limit. *I know theres a few odd riders missing (summers and swiderski for 2 as I need to update the database to let it know they had signed for EL teams) but it's most riders. Edited October 21, 2015 by SCB Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
racerback 36 Posted October 21, 2015 stop posting sense and logic it will never be accepted by the bspa 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Woz01 3,589 Posted October 21, 2015 Darcy Ward 10.80 Jason Doyle 10.55 Niels K Iversen 10.36 Maciej Janowski 10.28 Andreas Jonsson 9.23 Peter Kildemand 8.91 Matej Zagar 8.88 Rory Schlein 8.77 Chris Harris 8.56 Chris Holder 8.31 Scott Nicholls 8.03 Troy Batchelor 8.02 Fredrik Lindgren 7.68 Craig Cook 7.66 Nick Morris 7.66 Hans Andersen 7.27 Peter Karlsson 7.07 Dakota North 6.96 Joonas Kylmakorpi 6.91 Grzegorz Walasek 6.83 Grzegorz Zengota 6.83 Davey Watt 6.77 Mikkel B Jensen 6.76 Edward Kennett 6.59 Kim Nilsson 6.48 Kenneth Bjerre 6.43 Danny King 6.33 Robert Lambert 6.23 Ricky Wells 5.92 Richard Lawson 5.75 Josh Grajczonek 5.67 Max Fricke 5.42 Kyle Howarth 5.19 Jacob Thorssell 5.17 Kacper Gomolski 5.15 Vaclav Milik 5.14 Tobiasz Musielak 5.00 Jason Garrity 5.00 Szymon Wozniak 5.00 Kyle Newman 4.96 Lewis Kerr 4.71 Josh Auty 4.67 Stuart Robson 4.43 Steve Worrall 4.35 Nicklas Porsing 4.18 Piotr Swiderski 4.18 Charles Wright 4.16 Bjarne Pedersen 4.14 Ashley Birks 3.91 Simon Stead 3.84 Lewis Blackbird 3.78 James Sarjeant 3.16 Adam Ellis 3.10 Paul Starke 3.03 Stefan Nielsen 2.87 Josh Bates 2.58 Mikkel Michelsen 2.57 Simon Lambert 2.09 Lewis Rose 2.07 Ashley Morris 2.05 Eduard Krcmar 1.95 Adrian Miedzinski 1.54 I've included every rider regardless of the number of meeting they have ridden*, so the likes of Michelsen, Miedzinski, Pedersen and Stead are wrong. It means no need to using PL average for reserves, no need to "heat leader" list. Sorted. And quite nicely, if you remove Ward, Magic and Kildemand, take the top 56 (8 teams of 7 riders), add their combined averages and dive by 8 (teams) you get 40.29 which is about right for the points limit. *I know theres a few odd riders missing (summers and swiderski for 2 as I need to update the database to let it know they had signed for EL teams) but it's most riders. Thats superb work SCB. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jacques 3,114 Posted October 21, 2015 Darcy Ward 10.80 Jason Doyle 10.55 Niels K Iversen 10.36 Maciej Janowski 10.28 Andreas Jonsson 9.23 Peter Kildemand 8.91 Matej Zagar 8.88 Rory Schlein 8.77 Chris Harris 8.56 Chris Holder 8.31 Scott Nicholls 8.03 Troy Batchelor 8.02 Fredrik Lindgren 7.68 Craig Cook 7.66 Nick Morris 7.66 Hans Andersen 7.27 Peter Karlsson 7.07 Dakota North 6.96 Joonas Kylmakorpi 6.91 Grzegorz Walasek 6.83 Grzegorz Zengota 6.83 Davey Watt 6.77 Mikkel B Jensen 6.76 Edward Kennett 6.59 Kim Nilsson 6.48 Kenneth Bjerre 6.43 Danny King 6.33 Robert Lambert 6.23 Ricky Wells 5.92 Richard Lawson 5.75 Josh Grajczonek 5.67 Max Fricke 5.42 Kyle Howarth 5.19 Jacob Thorssell 5.17 Kacper Gomolski 5.15 Vaclav Milik 5.14 Tobiasz Musielak 5.00 Jason Garrity 5.00 Szymon Wozniak 5.00 Kyle Newman 4.96 Lewis Kerr 4.71 Josh Auty 4.67 Stuart Robson 4.43 Steve Worrall 4.35 Nicklas Porsing 4.18 Piotr Swiderski 4.18 Charles Wright 4.16 Bjarne Pedersen 4.14 Ashley Birks 3.91 Simon Stead 3.84 Lewis Blackbird 3.78 James Sarjeant 3.16 Adam Ellis 3.10 Paul Starke 3.03 Stefan Nielsen 2.87 Josh Bates 2.58 Mikkel Michelsen 2.57 Simon Lambert 2.09 Lewis Rose 2.07 Ashley Morris 2.05 Eduard Krcmar 1.95 Adrian Miedzinski 1.54 I've included every rider regardless of the number of meeting they have ridden*, so the likes of Michelsen, Miedzinski, Pedersen and Stead are wrong. It means no need to using PL average for reserves, no need to "heat leader" list. Sorted. And quite nicely, if you remove Ward, Magic and Kildemand, take the top 56 (8 teams of 7 riders), add their combined averages and dive by 8 (teams) you get 40.29 which is about right for the points limit. *I know theres a few odd riders missing (summers and swiderski for 2 as I need to update the database to let it know they had signed for EL teams) but it's most riders. No work done today then 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SCB 0 Posted October 21, 2015 No work done today then What do you call this?! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Paddy The Rebel 300 Posted October 21, 2015 Scb for bspa chairman Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
scottyfan 824 Posted October 21, 2015 No work done today then Clicking on the riders names, the parent clubs of a lot of riders is wrong!! Janowski,Doyle,Grajczonek and North, just a few examples. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lisa-colette 6,028 Posted October 21, 2015 Clicking on the riders names, the parent clubs of a lot of riders is wrong!! Janowski,Doyle,Grajczonek and North, just a few examples.North definitely belongs to Poole only bought him last winter, Magic not sure if we bought him or not! Doyle belongs to Swindon? Definitely not ours! Josh was our asset I think, but not sure if we sold him on? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pirate Nick 1,801 Posted October 21, 2015 North definitely belongs to Poole only bought him last winter, Magic not sure if we bought him or not! Doyle belongs to Swindon? Definitely not ours! Josh was our asset I think, but not sure if we sold him on?Magic was swapped for J Doyle and Josh was bought from Glasgow? But he's definately a Poole asset. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
waiheke1 4,295 Posted October 21, 2015 so scb hasnt updated his database for ownership. harfly relevant to the poiny of the thread. scb - does your database record how many ht15s each rider rode in? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mikebv 10,274 Posted October 21, 2015 Darcy Ward 10.80 Jason Doyle 10.55 Niels K Iversen 10.36 Maciej Janowski 10.28 Andreas Jonsson 9.23 Peter Kildemand 8.91 Matej Zagar 8.88 Rory Schlein 8.77 Chris Harris 8.56 Chris Holder 8.31 Scott Nicholls 8.03 Troy Batchelor 8.02 Fredrik Lindgren 7.68 Craig Cook 7.66 Nick Morris 7.66 Hans Andersen 7.27 Peter Karlsson 7.07 Dakota North 6.96 Joonas Kylmakorpi 6.91 Grzegorz Walasek 6.83 Grzegorz Zengota 6.83 Davey Watt 6.77 Mikkel B Jensen 6.76 Edward Kennett 6.59 Kim Nilsson 6.48 Kenneth Bjerre 6.43 Danny King 6.33 Robert Lambert 6.23 Ricky Wells 5.92 Richard Lawson 5.75 Josh Grajczonek 5.67 Max Fricke 5.42 Kyle Howarth 5.19 Jacob Thorssell 5.17 Kacper Gomolski 5.15 Vaclav Milik 5.14 Tobiasz Musielak 5.00 Jason Garrity 5.00 Szymon Wozniak 5.00 Kyle Newman 4.96 Lewis Kerr 4.71 Josh Auty 4.67 Stuart Robson 4.43 Steve Worrall 4.35 Nicklas Porsing 4.18 Piotr Swiderski 4.18 Charles Wright 4.16 Bjarne Pedersen 4.14 Ashley Birks 3.91 Simon Stead 3.84 Lewis Blackbird 3.78 James Sarjeant 3.16 Adam Ellis 3.10 Paul Starke 3.03 Stefan Nielsen 2.87 Josh Bates 2.58 Mikkel Michelsen 2.57 Simon Lambert 2.09 Lewis Rose 2.07 Ashley Morris 2.05 Eduard Krcmar 1.95 Adrian Miedzinski 1.54 I've included every rider regardless of the number of meeting they have ridden*, so the likes of Michelsen, Miedzinski, Pedersen and Stead are wrong. It means no need to using PL average for reserves, no need to "heat leader" list. Sorted. And quite nicely, if you remove Ward, Magic and Kildemand, take the top 56 (8 teams of 7 riders), add their combined averages and dive by 8 (teams) you get 40.29 which is about right for the points limit. *I know theres a few odd riders missing (summers and swiderski for 2 as I need to update the database to let it know they had signed for EL teams) but it's most riders. A great piece of information... However, I think you may have got one vital piece of it wrong... I am pretty sure Newman should be below Ashley Morris!!! 😃😄😁😉 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jacques 3,114 Posted October 21, 2015 (edited) Clicking on the riders names, the parent clubs of a lot of riders is wrong!! Janowski,Doyle,Grajczonek and North, just a few examples. Why are you telling me..not that it's relevant? Edited October 21, 2015 by Jacques 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SteveEvans 248 Posted October 21, 2015 This looks great and logical. How did you weight the averages? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SCB 0 Posted October 21, 2015 scb - does your database record how many ht15s each rider rode in?It can do. I'd like to think I could by any stats anyone wanted out of it.This looks great and logical. How did you weight the averages?I started by taking first checking that riders who had ridden at 1, 3 and 5 or 2 and 4 had averaged the same to make sure that there was no difference between the heat leader positions and the second string positions. Turns out the second string positions are as identical as it gets but the number 5 is a little harder than 1 and 3 slightly but not statistically enough to matter. Then I compared the riders who had raced at 1/3/5 and 2/4 and compared their second string and heat leaders averages to find a % difference. I discovered that Richard Lawson ride better as a heatleader than a second string! Some riders it makes little difference, others had a vast difference so took an average. Then I split out everyone one of the riding positions averages per heat so I could see what any trends. It turned out it made no difference using a weighting for each heats or just using a weighting for riding number so I just took the weighting I had calculated earlier (about 77% from memory), and split it, taking part off the second string and part onto the heatleaders. For the reserves I just took the reserve race averages and compared them to their non-reserve race averages, decided that was the difference between being a reserve and a second string (also about 75%), took that from the reserves averages. I'm sure I could spend a few hours making it more accurate by weighting each heat rather that just riding position but I don't think it would make much difference at all. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Alan_Jones 1,005 Posted October 21, 2015 Thanks to CVS in the Speedway Star we now know a bit more. The heat leader list has already been agreed by all 8 promotions & he doesn't know if it will be made public. The reserves will still be subject to a 2 round draft with tier 1 having 12 riders & the 4 unselected joining tier 2. They'll be signed on 60% of their PL average. All GSAs are going to be calculated every 4 matches rather than monthly. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
