Somerset V Workington Koc 5 July

[Arson fire 4,785]

Fine you win. It's not a fact that PL riders fall off more often. It's not a skill to ride a speedway bike, it's all sheer luck. Somerset beat Workington all down to Somersets luck. somerset were lucky their riders beat the Workington riders more than the Workington riders beat Somerset riders, Somerset were lucky their riders didn't fall off. Somerset were lucky their riders didn't stop (although actually somerset riders did fall and have Ef's btu they don't count do they? only the "unucky" ones).

 

I don't knwo why promoters bother paying the riders lareg sums of money to lucky ride a bike around a track and rely on luck to beat the opposition. You or I could get lucky and score 15 points. Tell you what, next time Richard Lawson scores a maximum go and tell him he was lucky. Because theres no skill involved in staying on a speedway bike.

 

It makes me laugh that a few of you can claim it's luck and then have a go at me for daring to suggest that falling off may be down to a lack of skill.

 

So yes, when a rider rides in the EL he gets talent. He gets skill. He's not been picked to ride in the EL because he's got talent and skill, he gets it because he is riding in the EL. Again, promoters may as well just sign you up as EL number 1 because signing for a EL team suddenly gives you talent and skill so you don't have to rely on luck to stay on your bike or for it to last 4 laps.

well is it a fact or not?? If so can you post a link or is it your own statistics??.... Genuine question

[SCB 0]

well is it a fact or not?? If so can you post a link or is it your own statistics??.... Genuine question

Fact, here are the numbers

Level Season Falls Meetings Falls Per meeting

Elite 2010 39 73 0.53

Premier 2010 80 133 0.60

Elite 2011 101 164 0.62

Premier 2011 165 298 0.55

Elite 2012 94 153 0.61

Premier 2012 163 252 0.65

Elite 2013 45 79 0.57

Premier 2013 103 118 0.87

 

So 2011 was the exception. But 3 years out of 4 the PL has more falls. Also over all 4 season the PL has more falls. Not hugely but enough to suggest that better riders fall off less. It's not exactly going to be a shock though is it? Unless you support Workington it seems.

 

 

edit > tried my bets to format it. for some reason despite the forum having the html tags, it doesn't allow html or tables :s

Edited July 9, 2013 by SCB

[cyclone 943]

The flaw in your theory is that you attribute falls wholly to rider skill level.

 

One other contributory factor that immediately springs to mind is that track condition could play a part in riders falling off.

 

For instance it would not be unreasonable to expect a lower incidence of falling on a well prepared track in perfect weather conditions, when compared to a rutted, patchy track when racing is taking place in wet weather.

[SCB 0]

The flaw in your theory is that you attribute falls wholly to rider skill level.

 

One other contributory factor that immediately springs to mind is that track condition could play a part in riders falling off.

 

For instance it would not be unreasonable to expect a lower incidence of falling on a well prepared track in perfect weather conditions, when compared to a rutted, patchy track when racing is taking place in wet weather.

Over a 4 year period though, that should even out. if we were talking a handful of meetings I'd accept your point but surely over 1200 meetings is a bloody good sample? I agree it's not perfect and there not a massive amount in it but there is certainly a correlation between the top and bottom riders. Even down to splitting heat leaders, second strings and reserves (I assumed 1,3 and 5 as heatleaders though, not always true) you notice a pattern with the exception of PL reserves who as I mentioned earlier in the thread have a tendency to fall off lots or never.

 

I would guess but I've not checked it out there more falls in March die to being rusty and cold than there is in August when it's warm and rider are up to speed too. probably loads more in October when it's cold and wet and meetings are generally run out of desperation in dodgy conditions.

[cyclone 943]

Over a 4 year period though, that should even out. if we were talking a handful of meetings I'd accept your point but surely over 1200 meetings is a bloody good sample? I agree it's not perfect and there not a massive amount in it but there is certainly a correlation between the top and bottom riders. Even down to splitting heat leaders, second strings and reserves (I assumed 1,3 and 5 as heatleaders though, not always true) you notice a pattern with the exception of PL reserves who as I mentioned earlier in the thread have a tendency to fall off lots or never.

 

I would guess but I've not checked it out there more falls in March die to being rusty and cold than there is in August when it's warm and rider are up to speed too. probably loads more in October when it's cold and wet and meetings are generally run out of desperation in dodgy conditions.

 

How are the % of meetings for EL vs PL distributed over early & late months of the British Speedway Calendar ?

[Arson fire 4,785]

 

Fact, here are the numbers

Level Season Falls Meetings Falls Per meeting

Elite 2010 39 73 0.53

Premier 2010 80 133 0.60

Elite 2011 101 164 0.62

Premier 2011 165 298 0.55

Elite 2012 94 153 0.61

Premier 2012 163 252 0.65

Elite 2013 45 79 0.57

Premier 2013 103 118 0.87

 

So 2011 was the exception. But 3 years out of 4 the PL has more falls. Also over all 4 season the PL has more falls. Not hugely but enough to suggest that better riders fall off less. It's not exactly going to be a shock though is it? Unless you support Workington it seems.

 

 

edit > tried my bets to format it. for some reason despite the forum having the html tags, it doesn't allow html or tables :s

ok, but surely with the prem having more meetings than the Elite then the average has much more chance of being higher, also how many of the fallers in prem matches also ride in the Elite league?? In them numbers there will be riders considered good enough for both leagues who have contributed.... I would have thought the percentages would be much wider given the gulf in talent and skill which you claim??.... They arnt.

 

We all can count on one hand the meetings we've been to over the years, where there hasn't been a single faller in any heat.

Edited July 10, 2013 by Arson fire

[Django 159]

It could also show as an example of closer (therefore better and more exciting) racing in the Premier League

[Backless 538]

All of which adds substance to the theory that the thing driving away any potential new fans isn't the T/R, averages, foreigners, tracks, bikes, silencers, or anything else - it's contact with speedway fans

[jenga 2,998]

whatever sport you/we support, there will always be fans/humans who know and can do a better job. so with the pl men doing more meetings than the lite league men there will be more fallers/e/fs and so forth. look at adam roynon. rode in three leagues at one time and still came to grief . its all about luck. good luck or bad luck..

the more you ride , the more the chances are of getting injured. think i will go for the vacant number 1 spot at Poole. unless S.C.B. has beat me to it.

[Najjer 2,890]

ok, but surely with the prem having more meetings than the Elite then the average has much more chance of being higher, also how many of the fallers in prem matches also ride in the Elite league??

 

Or on the flip side, more chance of being lower - that's all down to the law of averages.

[SCB 0]

ok, but surely with the prem having more meetings than the Elite then the average has much more chance of being higher, also how many of the fallers in prem matches also ride in the Elite league?? In them numbers there will be riders considered good enough for both leagues who have contributed.... I would have thought the percentages would be much wider given the gulf in talent and skill which you claim??.... They arnt.

 

We all can count on one hand the meetings we've been to over the years, where there hasn't been a single faller in any heat.

The whole idea of averages is that it doesn't matter if it's 10 or 15 meetings. Averages iron out the issue of done riding more meetings.

 

I can't believe people are trying to argue that staying on a speedway is luck and not a skill!

 

the more you ride , the more the chances are of getting injured. think i will go for the vacant number 1 spot at Poole. unless S.C.B. has beat me to it.

Do you know what's being discussed here? My argument is dpeedway riders rely on skill, yet a few people are claiming its luck. I could not ride for Poole. I could not ride NL. Why? I don't have the skill. I get scared riding around the Scunthorpe mini track when there is someone else with 10 foot of me. That's a skill I don't poses. I also fall off a lot, because I don't have skill. Or maybe I'm just unlucky?

[Arson fire 4,785]

 

 

Or on the flip side, more chance of being lower - that's all down to the law of averages.

i know how averages work if the elite league had more meetings the ave would surely be higher, given every meeting just about has fallers...even GPS who are the best in the world... Hence the average would go up.

 

The whole idea of averages is that it doesn't matter if it's 10 or 15 meetings. Averages iron out the issue of done riding more meetings.

 

I can't believe people are trying to argue that staying on a speedway is luck and not a skill!

 

i never said that??... The more meetings the higher the average, given all meetings have fallers just about.

 

What you still doing on a mini track if you slid the bike after 3 days??.... Or were you exaggerating??

[comet49 316]

10 fallers in 15 meetings or 20 fallers in 30 meetings is the same average, 66.67. Don't get the number of meetings bit.

Edited July 10, 2013 by comet49

[Dietbowers 522]

I still say the Waspels are a lucky team....

[Arson fire 4,785]

Given scb figures, in some seasons the Prem rides over 100 meetings more meaning

100 meetings x 15 heats x 4 riders = 6000 more chances of falling.... Given speedway riders often fall off, I don't think it's a fair comparison... Yes it's an average, but an average taken on many fewer meetings.... Be interesting to see the averages over 100 meetings each and not per season.