DC2 11,150 Posted October 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, dontforgetthefueltapsbruv said: But then you would have the like of Doyle Fricke and Lambert all assessed at 12 for team building when quite obviously Doyle is head and shoulders above Out of interest, Craig Cook, the top CL rider has a 10.18 CL average and a 7.78 PL one. The same ratio (1.308) gives Doyle a 11.72 CL average from his 8.96 PL average. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dontforgetthefueltapsbruv 10,706 Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) 40 minutes ago, DC2 said: Out of interest, Craig Cook, the top CL rider has a 10.18 CL average and a 7.78 PL one. The same ratio (1.308) gives Doyle a 11.72 CL average from his 8.96 PL average. That's a different issue - ie is the conversion rate correct I'd say the figures you quote are quite possibly a more accurate reflection if how things should be rather than the actual conversion in the regs It surely wouldn't be too hard to work out an average average using performances from both leagues where applicable Edited October 31, 2019 by dontforgetthefueltapsbruv Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grachan 7,362 Posted November 1, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, dontforgetthefueltapsbruv said: But then you would have the like of Doyle Fricke and Lambert all assessed at 12 for team building when quite obviously Doyle is head and shoulders above There's no point. Give him 14, or whatever, and he's just going to drop by about 3 points anyway after a month, and then you get tactical team changes again (eg 2017, Musielak for Grondal after Doyle started on 13.42). Winning by half a lap is the same as winning by 10 yards points wise. All 3 would be pretty much unbeatsble at champ level. Edited November 1, 2019 by Grachan Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dontforgetthefueltapsbruv 10,706 Posted November 1, 2019 5 hours ago, Grachan said: There's no point. Give him 14, or whatever, and he's just going to drop by about 3 points anyway after a month, and then you get tactical team changes again (eg 2017, Musielak for Grondal after Doyle started on 13.42). Winning by half a lap is the same as winning by 10 yards points wise. All 3 would be pretty much unbeatsble at champ level. I tend to agree but I think you need to find some way of building in a fair and realistic differential Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DC2 11,150 Posted November 1, 2019 7 hours ago, Grachan said: There's no point. Give him 14, or whatever, and he's just going to drop by about 3 points anyway after a month, and then you get tactical team changes again (eg 2017, Musielak for Grondal after Doyle started on 13.42). Winning by half a lap is the same as winning by 10 yards points wise. All 3 would be pretty much unbeatsble at champ level. Unbeatable? They would beat each other from time to time and none of them would average above 11. No different from the Crump, Adams and Pedersen days. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DC2 11,150 Posted November 1, 2019 9 hours ago, dontforgetthefueltapsbruv said: That's a different issue - ie is the conversion rate correct I'd say the figures you quote are quite possibly a more accurate reflection if how things should be rather than the actual conversion in the regs It surely wouldn't be too hard to work out an average average using performances from both leagues where applicable No, it’s not a different issue. You said Doyle, Fricke and Lambert would all be assessed at 12, which would be unfair as “Doyle is head and shoulders above” the other two. So I’ve given you a fair conversion rate which will give them different averages. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dontforgetthefueltapsbruv 10,706 Posted November 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, DC2 said: No, it’s not a different issue. You said Doyle, Fricke and Lambert would all be assessed at 12, which would be unfair as “Doyle is head and shoulders above” the other two. So I’ve given you a fair conversion rate which will give them different averages. It is a different issue because the conversion example you used isnt the regulatory rate - until it is then it is a different issue I did say that I agreed the ratio you stated was more realistic in terms of the real world difference and therefore would be a better position to use I also believe it would be relatively straightforward to use that realistic conversion rate as well as using results from both leagues for those doubling up so that every rider only ever has one average (at least for team building/changes purposes) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DC2 11,150 Posted November 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, dontforgetthefueltapsbruv said: It is a different issue because the conversion example you used isnt the regulatory rate - until it is then it is a different issue I did say that I agreed the ratio you stated was more realistic in terms of the real world difference and therefore would be a better position to use I also believe it would be relatively straightforward to use that realistic conversion rate as well as using results from both leagues for those doubling up so that every rider only ever has one average (at least for team building/changes purposes) It’s not a different issue. Nevertheless, one conversion rate is unsatisfactory, as the top riders score more points more often, the middle riders score up and down, and the bottom riders generally have middling to poor scores. So top riders like Cook have a conversion rate of 1.31, but middling CL riders like Ellis Perks have 1.79. I suspect Anders Rowe (4.38 CL) would have been a 2 pointer in the PL, giving a conversion rate of 2.19. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grachan 7,362 Posted November 1, 2019 19 minutes ago, DC2 said: Unbeatable? They would beat each other from time to time and none of them would average above 11. No different from the Crump, Adams and Pedersen days. I'm pretty sure they would average over 11. Don't forget there would be 20 teams. That makes the top 60 in the current PL as heatleaders and the top 20 would be number ones. So anyone in the top 3 averages for a club at moment is likely to be a number one give or take a few exceptions where teams have a strong top 4. Your looking at riders who are currently at reserve being heatleaders. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grachan 7,362 Posted November 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, DC2 said: It’s not a different issue. Nevertheless, one conversion rate is unsatisfactory, as the top riders score more points more often, the middle riders score up and down, and the bottom riders generally have middling to poor scores. So top riders like Cook have a conversion rate of 1.31, but middling CL riders like Ellis Perks have 1.79. I suspect Anders Rowe (4.38 CL) would have been a 2 pointer in the PL, giving a conversion rate of 2.19. Most middling riders (eg Perks) already have a CL average anyway, so wouldn't need converting. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DC2 11,150 Posted November 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Grachan said: Most middling riders (eg Perks) already have a CL average anyway, so wouldn't need converting. Yes, but the point I was making is that there is not a “one figure suits all” conversion rate. That for the best riders is lower than that for the worst riders. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DC2 11,150 Posted November 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, Grachan said: I'm pretty sure they would average over 11. Don't forget there would be 20 teams. That makes the top 60 in the current PL as heatleaders and the top 20 would be number ones. So anyone in the top 3 averages for a club at moment is likely to be a number one give or take a few exceptions where teams have a strong top 4. Your looking at riders who are currently at reserve being heatleaders. There are 49 current PL riders and another 12 who averaged above 4 and finished without clubs, so yes, practically all would be heat leaders, although one would expect some higher averaged imports to come in, making those with a current average below 4 (Shanes, Sarjeant etc) second strings. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stevebrum 6,823 Posted November 1, 2019 2 hours ago, DC2 said: Unbeatable? They would beat each other from time to time and none of them would average above 11. No different from the Crump, Adams and Pedersen days. Pedersen? He wasn’t in the same league average wise in the UK. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
robins les 53 Posted November 1, 2019 2 hours ago, DC2 said: It’s not a different issue. Nevertheless, one conversion rate is unsatisfactory, as the top riders score more points more often, the middle riders score up and down, and the bottom riders generally have middling to poor scores. So top riders like Cook have a conversion rate of 1.31, but middling CL riders like Ellis Perks have 1.79. I suspect Anders Rowe (4.38 CL) would have been a 2 pointer in the PL, giving a conversion rate of 2.19. But you can't have a 2 point assessed average in PL, nothing less than 3 & surely the conversion rate is 0.6 meaning an average of 2.63. The conversion rate from PL to CL is 1.6. If you had a movable conversion rate as you suggest, there would be outrage & people saying there was cheating. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
arnieg 3,644 Posted November 1, 2019 A problem easily solved with some simple linear regression Share this post Link to post Share on other sites