It's difficult, many of the riders seems to be in good form. In addition to your picks, I'd say that Monberg, Sundström, Andersen and Jędrzejak also will be strong challengers.
Krzysztof Buczkowski replaces Piotr Pawlicki as a reserve for Poland for SWC event 1.
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=pl&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sportowefakty.pl%2Fzuzel%2F526350%2Fslawomir-kryjom-dzwon-pawlickiego-byl-paskudny&sandbox=1
Gafurov replaces Emil: https://twitter.com/SpeedwayGP/status/606799055604355073
I fully understand Emil's decision, that crash with him and Piotr Pawlicki was really nasty.
However it was probably not a good decision to continue the meeting.