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Roger Jacobs

Green Sheet Rolling Averages - Reducing in 2022

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I have posted this in the general section, but thought it worthwhile for those who are only interested in the Prem ...

The Green Sheet Rolling Averages have been based on 20 matches for a while, but this season (2022), the number of matches is reducing by 2 each month, so: June 18, July 16, August 14, September 12, and by October the Rolling Averages will be based on the last 10 matches.

I checked with the BSPL office, and they confirmed that it has always been the last N matches, irrespective of home or away, i.e. not half of each. Therefore, by October it's possible that riders will have averages skewed by 6/7/8 home and 4/3/2 away, or even 4/3/2 home and 6/7/8 away.  Obviously, the smaller the sample, the bigger the impact on the overall average - especially when a new score is added and the oldest is dropped.

Another change by the BSPL for which the consequences have not been thought through ...

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This, as you say, could be biased either way(Home or Away) but it could slightly eliminate average manipulation for the following season if riders, in their respective teams, are already in the play offs. It might be a bit strange but most of the meetings in September & October will be Play Off or KO meetings which do not go towards your CMA's.

My personal view on this is ALL types of meetings count but in 20 meetings, drop your lowest 4 scores as the PL only has 6 teams meaning 20 league meetings if the riders ride in all of them, similarly, in the CL 11 teams meaning, again, 20 league meetings if ridden in all.

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5 hours ago, Roger Jacobs said:

I have posted this in the general section, but thought it worthwhile for those who are only interested in the Prem ...

 

The Green Sheet Rolling Averages have been based on 20 matches for a while, but this season (2022), the number of matches is reducing by 2 each month, so: June 18, July 16, August 14, September 12, and by October the Rolling Averages will be based on the last 10 matches.

I checked with the BSPL office, and they confirmed that it has always been the last N matches, irrespective of home or away, i.e. not half of each. Therefore, by October it's possible that riders will have averages skewed by 6/7/8 home and 4/3/2 away, or even 4/3/2 home and 6/7/8 away.  Obviously, the smaller the sample, the bigger the impact on the overall average - especially when a new score is added and the oldest is dropped.

Another change by the BSPL for which the consequences have not been thought through ...

I'd say it's a good move. 20 meetings is far too many to give an accurate account of someone's form!

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5 hours ago, IronScorpion said:

This, as you say, could be biased either way(Home or Away) but it could slightly eliminate average manipulation for the following season if riders, in their respective teams, are already in the play offs. It might be a bit strange but most of the meetings in September & October will be Play Off or KO meetings which do not go towards your CMA's.

My personal view on this is ALL types of meetings count but in 20 meetings, drop your lowest 4 scores as the PL only has 6 teams meaning 20 league meetings if the riders ride in all of them, similarly, in the CL 11 teams meaning, again, 20 league meetings if ridden in all.

Dropping their 4 lowest scores will end up in inflated averages

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1 hour ago, Najjer said:

Dropping their 4 lowest scores will end up in inflated averages

But it stops average manipulation at the end of a league season(not including play offs) 

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8 hours ago, IronScorpion said:

But it stops average manipulation at the end of a league season(not including play offs) 

But average manipulation involves deliberate low scoring ...

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I can only see manipulation on the rise. Teams whos play-off chances have gone will see riders tripping over themselves to finish last. Two "bad" matches could easily see a rider trim 1-2 points off thier average.

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5 hours ago, Roger Jacobs said:

But average manipulation involves deliberate low scoring ...

Exactly, which is why I would take off a couple of low scores from the "cheaters".

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16 hours ago, IronScorpion said:

But it stops average manipulation at the end of a league season(not including play offs) 

But you will then end up with riders with on inflated averages when they could of genuinely had 4 bad meeting and replaced with higher ones. This once again leads to more watering down of the product by naturally forcing everybody’s average higher. I don’t believe that’s a good idea and I don’t believe that average manipulation come the end of the season is actually that much of an issue - especially in todays market where there is a shortage of riders.

I don’t think 10 meetings is a bad thing either as that represents half a season - however it should include any conbo of 4H/6A, 6H/4A or 5H/5A to prevent lop sided averages.

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1 hour ago, Najjer said:

But you will then end up with riders with on inflated averages when they could of genuinely had 4 bad meeting and replaced with higher ones. This once again leads to more watering down of the product by naturally forcing everybody’s average higher. I don’t believe that’s a good idea and I don’t believe that average manipulation come the end of the season is actually that much of an issue - especially in todays market where there is a shortage of riders.

I don’t think 10 meetings is a bad thing either as that represents half a season - however it should include any conbo of 4H/6A, 6H/4A or 5H/5A to prevent lop sided averages.

Tbf, you could just increase the points limit accordingly. 

While I can understand the logic used for the rolling averages within a season (phased reduction of number of meetings), I would think for the following season using the last 20 (10/10) would be better. The more meetings, the more you dilute the impact of any thrown points.

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7 hours ago, Sings4Speedway said:

I can only see manipulation on the rise. Teams whos play-off chances have gone will see riders tripping over themselves to finish last. Two "bad" matches could easily see a rider trim 1-2 points off thier average.

I seem to remember this being the reason rolling averages were brought in, in the first place wasnt it? 

With the wholel premise being the longer the number of races and meetings, the less impact a few dodgy ones had...

 

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1 hour ago, mikebv said:

I seem to remember this being the reason rolling averages were brought in, in the first place wasnt it? 

With the wholel premise being the longer the number of races and meetings, the less impact a few dodgy ones had...

 

It's almost like they want it to be dodgy....

Perish the thought ;)

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18 hours ago, mikebv said:

I seem to remember this being the reason rolling averages were brought in, in the first place wasnt it? 

With the wholel premise being the longer the number of races and meetings, the less impact a few dodgy ones had...

 

Didn't it have something to do with riders manipulating lower averages from the first six matches of the following season such that a 2.00 rider could then be replaced by a 5.00 as the other six riders had collectively dropped 3 points between them, for example. As at the start of a new season the first set of new averages was based entirely on that seasons scores. Making it easy for a 9 pointer to 'take it easy' over the first six matches and lower their average before miraculously rediscovering their form and finishing the season as a 9 pointer.

By introducing rolling averages it was then much more difficult for a rider to reduce their average at the start of the season (or at any time) because they'd need to 'take it easy' over 20 matches which is difficult when points = money.

I've really no idea why they'd reduce this to 10 matches? That's worse than pre rolling averages.  At least then a riders starting average for the following season was based on their performance across the whole of the last season, in which there used to be plenty of matches.

Aside from manipulating lower averages for the start of the following season a team guaranteed a play off spot could actually manipulate their averages to have a stronger reserve for the play offs.  Say Belle Vue have a commanding lead in the PL with even six matches to go. Could Charles Wright, for example, have six bad matches and find himself at reserve for the play offs?

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, enotian said:

Didn't it have something to do with riders manipulating lower averages from the first six matches of the following season such that a 2.00 rider could then be replaced by a 5.00 as the other six riders had collectively dropped 3 points between them, for example. As at the start of a new season the first set of new averages was based entirely on that seasons scores. Making it easy for a 9 pointer to 'take it easy' over the first six matches and lower their average before miraculously rediscovering their form and finishing the season as a 9 pointer.

By introducing rolling averages it was then much more difficult for a rider to reduce their average at the start of the season (or at any time) because they'd need to 'take it easy' over 20 matches which is difficult when points = money.

I've really no idea why they'd reduce this to 10 matches? That's worse than pre rolling averages.  At least then a riders starting average for the following season was based on their performance across the whole of the last season, in which there used to be plenty of matches.

Aside from manipulating lower averages for the start of the following season a team guaranteed a play off spot could actually manipulate their averages to have a stronger reserve for the play offs.  Say Belle Vue have a commanding lead in the PL with even six matches to go. Could Charles Wright, for example, have six bad matches and find himself at reserve for the play offs?

Most seasons many of the play off positions are pretty much guaranteed for some teams by the end of July so plenty of scope for manipulation I would think...

Matej at 6 would be good for the Aces.. .. :D

Edited by mikebv

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18 minutes ago, mikebv said:

Most seasons many of the play off positions are pretty much guaranteed for some teams by the end of July so plenty of scope for manipulation I would think...

Matej at 6 would be good for the Aces.. .. :D

Have a 45 point limit every season then none of this would have any effect at all really. Did I just really say that......

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