Averages And Their "worth"

[Sidney the robin 4,735]

Fair play to SCB a brilliant piece of work does everybody agree about having 3 Brits in a team.?

[DWP 320]

Jason Doyle 9.78Niels K Iversen 9.11Andreas Jonsson 8.62Chris Holder 8.44Tai Woffinden 8.41Krzysztof Kasprzak 8.00Matej Zagar 7.52Fredrik Lindgren 7.43Kim Nilsson 7.13Hans Andersen 7.10Craig Cook 6.94Danny King 6.81Chris Harris 6.79Robert Lambert 6.78Edward Kennett 6.69Sam Masters 6.68Joonas Kylmakorpi 6.55Jacob Thorssell 6.50Max Fricke 6.19Patrick Hougaard 6.17Krzysztof Buczkowski 6.15Scott Nicholls 6.14Richard Lawson 5.91Nick Morris 5.81Josh Grajczonek 5.79Piotr Swiderski 5.70Szymon Wozniak 5.49Nicolai Klindt 5.34Bjarne Pedersen 5.32Mads Korneliussen 5.25Troy Batchelor 5.16Lewis Bridger 5.11Brady Kurtz 5.10Steve Worrall 5.10Jason Garrity 5.09Rohan Tungate 5.05Peter Karlsson 4.97Adam Ellis 4.96Mikkel B Jensen 4.70Justin Sedgmen 4.63Richie Worrall 4.44Simon Lambert 4.33Kyle Newman 4.17Aaron Summers 4.04Sebastian Ulamek 4.00Paul Starke 3.93Josh Auty 3.86Kyle Howarth 3.84Charles Wright 3.76Lewis Rose 3.76Josh Bates 3.69Davey Watt 3.62Kacper Woryna 3.62Rory Schlein 3.47Nikolaj Busk-Jakobsen 3.43Lewis Kerr 3.42Adam Roynon 3.40Kai Huckenbeck 3.23Joe Jacobs 3.03Max Clegg 3.01James Sarjeant 2.67Robert Mear 2.55Stefan Nielsen 2.48Carl Wilkinson 2.41Grzegorz Walasek 2.13Ashley Morris 1.93

I've assumed that heat leaders averages are right and then weighted second strings a reserves. I calculated the weightings by taking any riders who rode as any two of heat leader, second string and reserve to calculate the ratios. I've kept it simple and weighted it by riding position 1/3/5 vs 2/4 vs 6/7 when in reality riders appear to have averaged a little less at 5 than at 1 and 3 and at 4 compared to 2 and at 7 compared to 6 but I think it's insignificant enough to not matter.

 

I've also used all meeting for this season. I don't care if a rider has done 1 meeting of 30, thats what is counted. It explains why in some ways Rory Schlein is far too low really.

 

 

Stevebrum will also see that weighted, KK is over half a point better thna Freddie, fancy that (we'll gloss over Freddie leading his team to play-off glory in sterling fashion for now)

Out of interest what's Porsing's average as did 2 Lynn meetings in 2016 - Polish average 7.32 last EL average 4.7? PL 6.58

[SCB 15]

Out of interest what's Porsing's average as did 2 Lynn meetings in 2016 - Polish average 7.32 last EL average 4.7? PL 6.58

Sorry, missed him! Forgot to add Lynns team changes in August. Weighted hes 6.31 rather than 8.57 traditional.

[ruckerroo 794]

Well done scb, good stuff and on the money.

 

Sadly they will come up with another hair brained scheme no doubt

[mikebv 10,387]

Why grade though rather than average? I fail to see a single advantage, but definitely issues.

looking at that proposed methodology, you could end with teams effectively 6.5 points apart!

compare: Doyle Cook Fricke Batchelor Bech Starke

Kerr

 

with: Nilsson Kennett Swiderski Bridger S Lambert Bates Mear

 

And that was including Starke rather than Schlein in the first team.

The second team would smash the former at Lakeside...😀

 

Hence averages can be misleading...

 

However maybe the best of both worlds would be to use the mean averages per sector of ten for the first forty riders and then the mean average for the rest? Set a limit for five grades and six man teams and all work to that limit but only one rider from each sector in 1-4 allowed..

 

Grading will at least mean something to the public. "He's Grade One, he's Grade Two etc" And fans would have more clarity on the level of rider within that band when any incoming riders join the league later in the season.

 

No way would Woffy or Lindback have been Grade Two level so would have had to replace Lindgren or Holder this season which would have stopped lots of conspiracy theories and the sport being poorly viewed as a 'bit Mickey Mouse'..

[foreverblue 6,125]

Sorry, missed him! Forgot to add Lynns team changes in August. Weighted hes 6.31 rather than 8.57 traditional.

Can't see them using your formula though, it seems far too fair and logical to me! Whatever scheme they use i just hope for fairness.

[Blazeaway 1,501]

Fair play to SCB a brilliant piece of work does everybody agree about having 3 Brits in a team.?

 

 

I don't.

 

Perhaps for the Premier League but certainly not the Elite.

[Joe Beevers 207]

But before we all start patting SCB on the back for working out the formula of the circumference of the square root (multiplied by pi) divided by the radius of Einsteins theory of moon size equalling a speedway average, we still have the problem of riders who keep 'popping' into the Elite League now and again or new riders entering the league.

 

Antonio Lindback is a good example as he had a low average at Belle Vue but became a GP rider but scored 5 at Poole so looking back on it, his average was maybe about right with the exception of the anti Poole fan base with Gavan and his merry men.

 

Also, what average would Kenneth Bjerre come in on with these applied rules by SCB.

[g13webb 4,254]

What would be a suitable pl conversion to use for riders like j holder? 60%?

NL brits come in on a 2?

 

First of all, a big well done to SCB, he has done a brilliant job in the working of these scores. My gut feeling is that some of the present EDR's are worth far more than the score they have been given, when compared with some of the riders with higher scores. But that just something I picked up on and is no way a complaint of the time SCB has afforded in the creation of.. We need people to input these ideas to enable the sport to move forward...

 

With the exception of a few top riders from the SGP there is little to choose between the two leagues. It is for this reason I query whether the 60% conversion as a realistic figure anymore. This figure has been used for a few years now when the differences was more noticeable than it is now. Probably a figure around 75% would be more realistic..

[SCB 15]

But before we all start patting SCB on the back for working out the formula of the circumference of the square root (multiplied by pi) divided by the radius of Einsteins theory of moon size equalling a speedway average, we still have the problem of riders who keep 'popping' into the Elite League now and again or new riders entering the league.

 

Antonio Lindback is a good example as he had a low average at Belle Vue but became a GP rider but scored 5 at Poole so looking back on it, his average was maybe about right with the exception of the anti Poole fan base with Gavan and his merry men.

 

Also, what average would Kenneth Bjerre come in on with these applied rules by SCB.

Lindback wouldn't count in my figures as he rode 0 EL meetings so I have nothing to base his average on. If you give me the time (and I had the inclination but frankly I don't) I'd take every riders Polish, Swedish, British, German and Danish league averages and work out conversions between each of the leagues.

 

Bjerre you would have to go back to last season when I did the same and he come out at 6.43

 

First of all, a big well done to SCB, he has done a brilliant job in the working of these scores. My gut feeling is that some of the present EDR's are worth far more than the score they have been given, when compared with some of the riders with higher scores. But that just something I picked up on and is no way a complaint of the time SCB has afforded in the creation of.. We need people to input these ideas to enable the sport to move forward...

I think the issue is that you're so used to seeing draft riders scoring 7 or 8 that it seems odd to see them with averages of 4 but in reality, they only beat each other for 5 or 6 of them points. I can post the averages of riders who raced as reserve and either second string or heat leader and you'll see the differences. The oddity was Lewis Rose who actually did better as a second string but it's possible (because I haven't looked) he had a home bias towards his meetings riding as second string.

[Sidney the robin 4,735]

I don't.

 

Perhaps for the Premier League but certainly not the Elite.

Why not say as a example S.Worrall, R.Worrall and young Bewley at reserve?. Edited October 12, 2016 by Sidney the robin

[g13webb 4,254]

 

I think the issue is that you're so used to seeing draft riders scoring 7 or 8 that it seems odd to see them with averages of 4 but in reality, they only beat each other for 5 or 6 of them points. I can post the averages of riders who raced as reserve and either second string or heat leader and you'll see the differences. The oddity was Lewis Rose who actually did better as a second string but it's possible (because I haven't looked) he had a home bias towards his meetings riding as second string.

 

I was referring to some of the top EDR's: Ellis; Howarth; Newman; Worrall were regularly seen beating 2nd strings and better and most weeks were very prominent in the points lists. No doubt most clubs would see all of these riders as valuable commodities ..

[waiheke1 4,295]

But before we all start patting SCB on the back for working out the formula of the circumference of the square root (multiplied by pi) divided by the radius of Einsteins theory of moon size equalling a speedway average, we still have the problem of riders who keep 'popping' into the Elite League now and again or new riders entering the league.

 

Antonio Lindback is a good example as he had a low average at Belle Vue but became a GP rider but scored 5 at Poole so looking back on it, his average was maybe about right with the exception of the anti Poole fan base with Gavan and his merry men.

 

 

Already answered in previous posts:

 

 

Any rider not racing uk in 2016 to be given an assessed average at the start of the season based on averages on other major leagues.

 

 

All riders outside the EL to be given a published assessed average at the start of the season.

 

 

Someting like 60% for PL, 110% for Ekstraliga/Elitseriesn,75% for enmark plus 2nd tier.

That would be the order od=f priority I would give for working out the appropriate average.

 

 

 

 

With the exception of a few top riders from the SGP there is little to choose between the two leagues. It is for this reason I query whether the 60% conversion as a realistic figure anymore. This figure has been used for a few years now when the differences was more noticeable than it is now. Probably a figure around 75% would be more realistic..

 

when i did comparisons in august, 60% still seemed appropriate. Bearing in mind that the EL averages are being converted downwards for riders racing at 2nd string and reserve.

75% could be about right if you weren't doing the SCB conversions on the EL averages.

 

 

 

Bjerre you would have to go back to last season when I did the same and he come out at 6.43

 

I think the issue is that you're so used to seeing draft riders scoring 7 or 8 that it seems odd to see them with averages of 4 but in reality, they only beat each other for 5 or 6 of them points. I can post the averages of riders who raced as reserve and either second string or heat leader and you'll see the differences. The oddity was Lewis Rose who actually did better as a second string but it's possible (because I haven't looked) he had a home bias towards his meetings riding as second string.

Bjerre missed all of 2016 in the EL, so I would say he should be re-assessed based on performances in Poland/Sweden.

 

agree re: reserves. Look at what the likes of Eliis scored as HL, normally 2/3. What I would add is that with these converted averages you end with an average team strength of around 38, wheras in reality you should end with team averages at 42. So you can argue that all riders averages are understated by around 0.5 each, though my feeling is that it is that the HL averages are actually understated by a higher value, number 7s (who often rode only 3 heats, 2 protected) may be about right.

Any rider not racing uk in 2016 to be given an assessed average at the start of the season based on averages on other major leagues.

 

 

All riders outside the EL to be given a published assessed average at the start of the season.

 

 

 

I was referring to some of the top EDR's: Ellis; Howarth; Newman; Worrall were regularly seen beating 2nd strings and better and most weeks were very prominent in the points lists. No doubt most clubs would see all of these riders as valuable commodities ..

Worral and Ellis end with similar converted averages to Kurtz and Karlsson. Which seems about right?

Howarth i thought had a disapointing season, so his average seems about right to me, in fact I though he would be more than a point behind those other two. Look at it this way - the 2nd strings essentially had a "balanced frmat" whee they raced HL, 2nd strings and reserves. Would you expect Howarth to average more than 4 racing as a 2nd string in that format. Personally, I wouldnt.

Fair play to SCB a brilliant piece of work does everybody agree about having 3 Brits in a team.?

I do. there were more than 24 Brits of a suitable standard who rode EL in 2016. And you could add to that the likes of Stead, Barker, Bewley.

Don't see how it helps British speedway if the likes of Bates have to go back to riding PL and Nl instead.

[Sidney the robin 4,735]

What average would the Laguta brothers be assessed at and Pepe P (would he have an old average)?

[A ORLOV 8,628]

What average would the Laguta brothers be assessed at and Pepe P (would he have an old average)?

It would depend if they were going to ride for Poole or not