Corona virus

[DC2 11,150]

18 hours ago, steve roberts said:

I've "self-isolated" myself from the other thread on corona virus...just goes round and round in circles and dominated by a certain few.

 

Oh, Steve, I feel wounded!

But I’ll leave this thread statistic free!  

 

[Ray Stadia 1,071]

18 hours ago, steve roberts said:

I've "self-isolated" myself from the other thread on corona virus...just goes round and round in circles and dominated by a certain few.

A bit like speedway! 

[teaboy279 1,038]

Not sure why i was quoted in that multi quoted post, my post was made before any deaths were recorded in the UK and buisness as usual. 

Equally now I am not worried about the virus, I have a vunerable daughter and a pregnant mrs BUT have followed all the guidelines etc, if we spent our lives worrying about everything we d make ourselves ill.

What does concern me though are the people that still think they are above the guidelines, and online experts that seem to know everything. Which is particularly impressive considering the experts are learning on a daily basis.

 

[BWitcher 12,453]

13 minutes ago, teaboy279 said:

Not sure why i was quoted in that multi quoted post, my post was made before any deaths were recorded in the UK and buisness as usual. 

Equally now I am not worried about the virus, I have a vunerable daughter and a pregnant mrs BUT have followed all the guidelines etc, if we spent our lives worrying about everything we d make ourselves ill.

What does concern me though are the people that still think they are above the guidelines, and online experts that seem to know everything. Which is particularly impressive considering the experts are learning on a daily basis.

 

Nail on the head.

Of course the guidelines should be followed. If not, you can't measure it's degree of success at all.

And you are right, everything is changing on a daily basis, which is why many of us are continually discussing it. The fact that 'experts' are learning on a daily basis and are constantly changing their prognosis backs up it's an ever evolving situation.

[stewmac 473]

On 4/8/2020 at 11:30 AM, BWitcher said:

However, a major factor in both our recording of deaths.. and indeed that of Italy is they are including deaths that were 'suspected' to have covid-19 not just those who have it which is exaggerating the numbers somewhat.

I'm afraid you have that completely wrong. The figures given each day only include those who have died in hospital and been confirmed as having died having Covid19. The true figures are very much higher, as community deaths and those in old folks' homes are not included...a fact that has been repeatedly highlighted in Scotland by the FM..

This link is only one of multiple that confirm this:

https://www.ft.com/content/c07e267b-7bca-418f-ad9e-8631a29854cb

Edited April 10, 2020 by stewmac

[BluTiger 21,697]

2 minutes ago, stewmac said:

I'm afraid you have that completely wrong. The figures given each day only include those who have died in hospital and been confirmed as having died having Covid19. The true figures are very much higher, as community deaths and those in old folks' homes are not included...a fact that has been repeatedly highlighted in Scotland by the FM..

Why have heart disease, stroke and pneumonia deaths plummeted around the globe ? Don't you find that rather strange ...

[stewmac 473]

6 minutes ago, Blupanther said:

Why have heart disease, stroke and pneumonia deaths plummeted around the globe ? Don't you find that rather strange ...

Of course, it's all connected. But you're not going to tell me that the 15 folk who died this week in an old folks' home close to me, all displaying the Covid symptoms, were going to drop dead of the things above in the space of a few days are you?

Similarly, in my small town of 7,000 I know of two deaths of people under 30 in the last fortnight who didn't even make it to hospital due to sudden onset of symptoms, and yet they won't be included in the figures. Repeat these sorts of figures all over the country and you have a hell of a lot more people than are being officially reported. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by stewmac

[Grachan 7,362]

38 minutes ago, stewmac said:

Of course, it's all connected. But you're not going to tell me that the 15 folk who died this week in an old folks' home close to me, all displaying the Covid symptoms, were going to drop dead of the things above in the space of a few days are you?

Similarly, in my small town of 7,000 I know of two deaths of people under 30 in the last fortnight who didn't even make it to hospital due to sudden onset of symptoms, and yet they won't be included in the figures. Repeat these sorts of figures all over the country and you have a hell of a lot more people than are being officially reported. 

I do think it is something of a grey area. People who died with AIDS are always listed as AIDS deaths. People with COVID-19 are listed as COVID-19 deaths. Yet the two contradict each other.

AIDS was invariably the underlying health condition rather then the technical cause of death. So, what kills you? The virus or the health condition?

 

[BWitcher 12,453]

1 hour ago, stewmac said:

Of course, it's all connected. But you're not going to tell me that the 15 folk who died this week in an old folks' home close to me, all displaying the Covid symptoms, were going to drop dead of the things above in the space of a few days are you?

Well they do most winters..

I know of a care home that had 19 die in two days a couple of years ago.

Around 3000 a week die from flu/pneumonia in England and Wales alone during the months of Dec-February and around 2500 a week in March.

[stewmac 473]

Going back to my first comment, which was in reply to your claim that deaths are being over reported, you have said nothing to back up your claim. 

[BWitcher 12,453]

14 minutes ago, stewmac said:

Going back to my first comment, which was in reply to your claim that deaths are being over reported, you have said nothing to back up your claim. 

Every death that is linked to covid-19 is reported as a death from covid-19. 

The reality is the majority of those cases have developed pneumonia... exactly as happens with serious cases of influenza.

The difference.. then influenza develops into pneumonia, the death will be reported as pneumonia.

Now, it is not, it is reported as Covid-19.

Secondly, I have always referred to the ONS statistics, not the NHS figures which only include hospitals.

[DC2 11,150]

30 minutes ago, stewmac said:

Going back to my first comment, which was in reply to your claim that deaths are being over reported, you have said nothing to back up your claim. 

 

Well, that’s quite simple.

It’s been admitted that some figures have included deaths where Covid has been suspected rather than confirmed by testing.

And it’s clear that where Covid is included as one of two or three “causes” on a death certificate it may not have caused the death.

From the BBC:

”Is coronavirus causing the deaths?

The death figures being reported daily are hospital cases where a person dies with the coronavirus infection in their body - because it is a notifiable disease cases have to be reported.

But what the figures do not tell us is to what extent the virus is causing the death.

It could be the major cause, a contributory factor or simply present when they are dying of something else.”

Edited April 10, 2020 by DC2

[lucifer sam 3,953]

38 minutes ago, BWitcher said:

Well they do most winters..

I know of a care home that had 19 die in two days a couple of years ago.

Around 3000 a week die from flu/pneumonia in England and Wales alone during the months of Dec-February and around 2500 a week in March.

We have 'flu vaccines to try to aid with that - we don't have a Covid-19 vaccine. Surely you understand that key and absolutely massive difference?  It's why it's not necessary to lock down every time we have a 'flu outbreak, but it is during the current outbreak of Covid-19. It's very different.  Of course, the 'flu is mutating every single year and therefore sadly, there are still deaths, but many are prevented. That's not to say every death is not tragic - it is.

But Covid-19 and 'flu are not the same thing, due to the current lack of vaccine for one of them. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by lucifer sam

[DC2 11,150]

3 minutes ago, lucifer sam said:

We have 'flu vaccines to try to aid with that - we don't have a Covid-19 vaccine. Surely you understand that key and absolutely massive difference?  It's why it's not necessary to lock down every time we have a 'flu outbreak, but it is during the current outbreak of Covid-19. It's very different.  Of course, the 'flu is mutating every single year and therefore sadly, there are still deaths, but many are prevented. That's not to say every death is not tragic - it is.

But Covid-19 and 'flu are not the same thing, due to the current lack of vaccine for one of them. 

 

When flu killed 28,500 people in the UK in 2014/15, was there a case for some sort of lockdown the following winter?

 

[BluTiger 21,697]

1 minute ago, lucifer sam said:

We have 'flu vaccines to try to aid with that - we don't have a Covid-19 vaccine. Surely you understand that key and absolutely massive difference?  It's why it's not necessary to lock down every time we have a 'flu outbreak, but it is during the current outbreak. It's very different.  Of course, the 'flu is mutating every single year and therefore sadly, there are still deaths, but many are prevented. That's not to say every death is not tragic - it is.

But Covid-19 and 'flu are not the same thing, due to the current lack of vaccine for one of them. 

So as covid19 is a cousin of the common cold, if it comes back mutated next year, there will be no effective vaccine against it. Should we lockdown every year in your opinion ? Just asking ...