Not necessarily, it depends if he achieves an average greater then riders in the main body of the team, he could easly put a point on his 4.66 average and still be at reserve. Besides riders have good and bad years depending on a number of factors, such as what home track they ride for. If you look at Carls average at the beginning of the season its almost 2 points higher than his current average that suggests under the right circumstances i.e riding for Scunthorpe he could put points on his average.