Swindon 2017

[Skidder1 7,637]

No more irrelevant than 42 points!

 

I guess they want to take account of the revised race format. They could simply take an average of all 8 teams actual averages at the first set of rider averages for May.

Edited April 7, 2017 by Skidder1

[AlanF 295]

That's a disaster for Ellis. When everybody gets a real average he is going to be stuck on his inflated x1.4 average. Makes his place very vulnerable.

[SCB 0]

Colin Pratt stated in last week's Speedway Star that the revised team limit had not yet been set!! One member of the BSPA has been tasked with coming up with a revised figure - based on teams' performances through to end April.

So a tiny bit below 42 then. Christ the BSPA are an inept bunch. The break even figure is always likely to be just below 42.

[poole keith 911]

That's a disaster for Ellis. When everybody gets a real average he is going to be stuck on his inflated x1.4 average. Makes his place very vulnerable.

dead right alan,would he be more effective in the championship on that average for a spell?

[lucifer sam 3,953]

To work out the equilibrium, we need to consider the following. The top riders are always likely to go out in Heat 15.

 

This is an ‘average’ drawn meeting.

 

Team A scorers before Heat 15: 10,8,8,6,4,4,2

Team B scorers before Heat 15: 10,8,8,6,4,4,2

 

Heat 15 features riders who had previously scored 10,10,8,8 – 36 points from 16 rides – an average of 9.00.

After heat 15, they have scored 42 points from 20 rides –an average of 8.40.

 

So Heat 15 takes around 0.5 away from averages. Therefore the equilibrium is approximately 41.50.

 

That’s taken me 5 minutes to work out.

 

All the best

Rob

[Grachan 7,362]

That's a disaster for Ellis. When everybody gets a real average he is going to be stuck on his inflated x1.4 average. Makes his place very vulnerable.

He is probably pretty secure as he is one of onlt two British rider (unless Nick Morris has a British license).

 

What is does do is mess up Swindon's low team average as he is averaging 1.50 (2.00 presumably) in a team average of 39.1.

 

On his old average Swindon are way over 42.

[Sidney the robin 4,735]

The 1975 team would win this league pretty much ubchallenged.

34 matches in the GBL yielding only 16 points are you knocking the level you are watching now.???😅

[AlanF 295]

He is probably pretty secure as he is one of onlt two British rider (unless Nick Morris has a British license).

 

What is does do is mess up Swindon's low team average as he is averaging 1.50 (2.00 presumably) in a team average of 39.1.

 

On his old average Swindon are way over 42.

 

I have no idea what the BSPA are planning to do when the new averages come out, but I hope they knock out his 1.4 multiplier and revert him back to last years "real" average.

[Crazy robin 2,963]

Not good news that Adam won't get a new realistic average & there will be no chance of him going back to his average from last year.

[Starman2006 2,355]

Not good news that Adam won't get a new realistic average & there will be no chance of him going back to his average from last year.

Good idea this new average lark. Isn't it... Not

[A ORLOV 8,628]

Not good news that Adam won't get a new realistic average & there will be no chance of him going back to his average from last year.

The only sensible thing to do is take the average he has attained in this season only

[Grachan 7,362]

To work out the equilibrium, we need to consider the following. The top riders are always likely to go out in Heat 15.

 

This is an average drawn meeting.

 

Team A scorers before Heat 15: 10,8,8,6,4,4,2

Team B scorers before Heat 15: 10,8,8,6,4,4,2

 

Heat 15 features riders who had previously scored 10,10,8,8 36 points from 16 rides an average of 9.00.

After heat 15, they have scored 42 points from 20 rides an average of 8.40.

 

So Heat 15 takes around 0.5 away from averages. Therefore the equilibrium is approximately 41.50.

 

Thats taken me 5 minutes to work out.

 

All the best

Rob

The reason you gor it so quick is because it's not exactly correct.

 

The fifth ride effectively 'carries over' to the next batch of 4 rides as it calculated per ride rather than based on each match.

 

In my opinion heat 15 shouldn't even be included in the averages anyway.

 

It's not going to come to 42 exactly but it's as near as dammit and the logical figure.

[lucifer sam 3,953]

The reason you gor it so quick is because it's not exactly correct.

 

The fifth ride effectively 'carries over' to the next batch of 4 rides as it calculated per ride rather than based on each match.

 

In my opinion heat 15 shouldn't even be included in the averages anyway.

 

It's not going to come to 42 exactly but it's as near as dammit and the logical figure.

 

Grachan,

 

I am correct. Heat 15 will nearly always include riders who have averaged above 6.00 between them entering Heat 15. Therefore, Heat 15 has a overall net effect of reducing their averages. That's clear to anyone with a basic understanding in maths.

 

Of course, there's over factors as well - R/R, reserves taking additional riders, etc.

 

But the equilibrium over a number of meetings will be very close to 41.5.

 

All the best

Rob

Edited April 7, 2017 by lucifer sam

[Grachan 7,362]

 

Grachan,

 

I am correct. Heat 15 will nearly always include riders who have averaged above 6.00 between them entering Heat 15. Therefore, Heat 15 has a net effect of reducing their averages. That's clear to anyone with a basic understanding in maths.

 

Of course, there's over factors as well - R/R, reserves taking additional riders, etc.

 

But the equilibrium over a number of meetings will be very close to 41.5.

 

All the best

Rob

Maybe it will. Just not in the way you described.

[lucifer sam 3,953]

Maybe it will. Just not in the way you described.

 

In exactly the way I described. Grachan, where is your maths degree from? Mine's from Warwick.

 

All the best

Rob