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szkocjasid

Rolling average explanation

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Taking from the British Speedway website:

2023 Rolling Averages are until the May 2023 cut-off date calculated including 2021, 2022 and 2023 results to a maximum number of 20 matches.


As the details of each 2023 meeting are added, the race details from meetings outside this sample are discounted from the calculations - hence if a rider completed 21 or more matches over the period the Spreadsheet automatically only uses the last 20 matches for calculations.

 

Riders who have not completed 20 matches but have an established average (starting with 4H 4A) will receive a monthly average based on matches completed.


For the 2023 season the number of matches used to calculate the Premiership Rolling Average for the official Green Sheet averages are to be reduced by 2 matches each month – starting from 1st June. Therefore June’s Green Sheet averages would use the last 18 matches, July 16 matches etc – culminating in the Green Sheets for October onwards using the last 10 matches.

Edited by szkocjasid

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This seems to sound far more complicated than it needs to be!

Are they really saying, after starting using a 10 match rolling ave from 2022, they will build the matches up one by one till they get to 20, only to drop them back to 10 again by the end of the season?

Or does that mean as soon as a rider races one 2023 match he'll have 9 more 2022 matches added on for a 20 match rolling ave?

Part of me wondered if this is an awful cut & paste job from the 2022 regulations?

 

Edited by szkocjasid
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They've left themselves wide open for average manipulation, especially the top 2 teams who are likely to have already confirmed Play-Off qualification by the end of June. 

If most top rider's are paid per meeting rather than by points, then we could see someone like (for example) Doyle dropping to a 6 average pretty quickly. 

This season (as some are already saying) looks to be the most competitive for years, yet it could turn into a complete farce. 

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2 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

They've left themselves wide open for average manipulation, especially the top 2 teams who are likely to have already confirmed Play-Off qualification by the end of June. 

If most top rider's are paid per meeting rather than by points, then we could see someone like (for example) Doyle dropping to a 6 average pretty quickly. 

This season (as some are already saying) looks to be the most competitive for years, yet it could turn into a complete farce. 

And if you are "cut adrift" by June, like usually happens to at least one team, then you can look to the season after and try and lose as many points as you can. 

Especially away from home so as you can keep your home crowd happy by still winning...

You can get plenty or 3-3's too, with your best rider running a third and not having his bonus point impact his average... ;)

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41 minutes ago, mikebv said:

And if you are "cut adrift" by June, like usually happens to at least one team, then you can look to the season after and try and lose as many points as you can. 

Especially away from home so as you can keep your home crowd happy by still winning...

You can get plenty or 3-3's too, with your best rider running a third and not having his bonus point impact his average... ;)

Most fans would be of the opinion that if you're bottom 2 come June you wouldn't want the same rider's back again. 

A club like King's Lynn I'd almost guarantee they're paying by point so rider's won't chuck races. 

It's almost certain that rider's like Doyle, Bewley, Holder etc demand guarantees so are more likely to "help the team" for the following year. 

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7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Most fans would be of the opinion that if you're bottom 2 come June you wouldn't want the same rider's back again. 

A club like King's Lynn I'd almost guarantee they're paying by point so rider's won't chuck races. 

It's almost certain that rider's like Doyle, Bewley, Holder etc demand guarantees so are more likely to "help the team" for the following year. 

There is always ways round things.....loop holes ...

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What is the purpose of reducing the number of meetings? You are either saving 10 match, 20 matches or somewhere in between is a true reflection of form and preventing average manipulation - all this chopping and changing just complicates something that doesn’t need to be.

There is a maximum of 24 matches this season so 20 matches, almost a full season, seems ample to me.

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20 minutes ago, Najjer said:

What is the purpose of reducing the number of meetings? You are either saving 10 match, 20 matches or somewhere in between is a true reflection of form and preventing average manipulation - all this chopping and changing just complicates something that doesn’t need to be.

There is a maximum of 24 matches this season so 20 matches, almost a full season, seems ample to me.

Should be 20 matches ....fair reflection on a riders ave ...

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20 is too many . Matches from July last year will still be in Championship averages at end of next season. I'd rather have 16 for both leagues than different rules for Prem and Champ.

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1 hour ago, Daniel Smith said:

Most fans would be of the opinion that if you're bottom 2 come June you wouldn't want the same rider's back again. 

A club like King's Lynn I'd almost guarantee they're paying by point so rider's won't chuck races. 

It's almost certain that rider's like Doyle, Bewley, Holder etc demand guarantees so are more likely to "help the team" for the following year. 

It works both ways...

Fans may not want riders back, but riders may want to be "essential" somewhere else the following year as their average could belie their true capabilities..

A rider who is a "seven point man all day long"  on a five point average, (or lower), could name his own price I would think...

You could also have teams definitely wanting "underperforming" riders back next season if two or three points lower than their "real capability"...

If a couple of riders drop out of HL positions to SS and get replaced with two new HL's then a team can be transformed...

10 matches far too few to be realistic and far too easy to manipulate...

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6 minutes ago, mikebv said:

It works both ways...

Fans may not want riders back, but riders may want to be "essential" somewhere else the following year as their average could belie their true capabilities..

A rider who is a "seven point man all day long"  on a five point average, (or lower), could name his own price I would think...

You could also have teams definitely wanting "underperforming" riders back next season if two or three points lower than their "real capability"...

If a couple of riders drop out of HL positions to SS and get replaced with two new HL's then a team can be transformed...

10 matches far too few to be realistic and far too easy to manipulate...

True ....

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2 hours ago, mikebv said:

And if you are "cut adrift" by June, like usually happens to at least one team, then you can look to the season after and try and lose as many points as you can. 

Especially away from home so as you can keep your home crowd happy by still winning...

You can get plenty or 3-3's too, with your best rider running a third and not having his bonus point impact his average... ;)

They have done it again with the 10 match rolling average in the final month. In 22 Wolves dropped 3.4 off of their team average in a month. The 62-28 defeat away to Lynn must of helped. Lynn put points on in the same period and ended up with the 2nd highest team average in the league.. If i were Alex,  i would be be in the " Whats good for one " club in 23.

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21 minutes ago, Bald Bloke said:

They have done it again with the 10 match rolling average in the final month. In 22 Wolves dropped 3.4 off of their team average in a month. The 62-28 defeat away to Lynn must of helped. Lynn put points on in the same period and ended up with the 2nd highest team average in the league.. If i were Alex,  i would be be in the " Whats good for one " club in 23.

Wolves worked a blinder....fair play to them ...why Would  u want to put your ave up when already in play offs....and it worked ....

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3 hours ago, arnieg said:

20 is too many . Matches from July last year will still be in Championship averages at end of next season. I'd rather have 16 for both leagues than different rules for Prem and Champ.

Include the pre season tournament in the Championship then seems the most sensible solution to that.

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